Quote Originally Posted by oddsbuster:
1st play is:
Dartmouth@IUPU - Ft. Wayne over 136.5 for 20 units... It seems we have a situation here where a slow paced team meets the fast paced team. While Dartmouth is going to see many mid to 120's in their totals this season because of their 50.5 shots per game average IPFW is going to consistently see totals in the high 140's or even 150's as IPFW averages 63.5 shots per game. This is by far the fastest team Dartmouth has seen all season long as they have played against teams averaging 55.8, 52.1, 56, 53.1, 58.3, 56 & 54.5 shots per game. This is one of the main reasons you will see that Dartmouth is only allowing 62ppg on defense this season as their schedule has been a quite heavily in favor of slower to medium paced teams. Not to mention those teams that Dartmouth played are currently ranked in scoring offense as follows @ 175, 296, 266, 101, 209, 275 & 124. It's no wonder that Dartmouth is only allowing 62ppg against these numbers. IPFW comes into this game ranked 37th overall in scoring offense along with the already mentioned 63 and a half shots per game mentioned above. By far the fastest on highest scoring offense that Dartmouth as seen this year. It's also rather alarming that IPFW has allowed 5 of the 7 D-1 teams they have played this season to exceed their shot total per game average as here are their following opponents along with shot per game averages followed by the shots they attempted vs IPFW along with the score of the game.
(@NEBO) avg 61.3spg had 73 shots (83-80ot)w
(Valpo) avg 44.8spg had 57 shots (85-76)w
(South Dakota) avg 54.6spg had 57 shots (92-87)w
(UMKC) avg 53.5spg had 45 shots (66-81)L
(@Iowa) avg 60.8 spg had 51 shots (72-82)L
(@Xavier) avg 55.9spg had 57 shots (63-86)L
(NEBO) avg 61.3spg had 65 shots (83-72)w
So as we can see above IPFW games have had totals of the following: 163, 161, 179, 147, 154, 149 & 152 as the lowest total IPFWhas played to all season was 147. Hell IPFW has already handled the leagues 2nd to last shots per game team in Valpo as they average just 44.8 shots per game ranking 345th overall as that game totaled 161 surpassing the 130's by a long shot. I'm more than willing to wager that Dartmouth is going to have good looks as IPFW is allowing their opponents to shot an eye popping 50% from the field this season which is most certainly in direct relation to their style of play on offense. I'm throwing down right now on a hefty size bet that says the offense of IPFW gets the better of this game and controls this one to a game which exceeds only the 130's easily. It's no wonder with these results that the books have given us only one opportunity this season to wager on a total in a IPFW game...POD
Went back and re-watched a large portion of the Dartmouth v. Notre Dame game and also the IUPU v. Lousville game.
I really think you're on the right side with the over here for a couple of reasons.
1. IUPU really likes to try to push the breaks and almost never truly sets up the half court (and even when they try it seems to be 1 pass and cut to the basket, then shoot or kick out).
2. Although Dartmouth may run a slower paced game, they still seem to be pretty aggressive on offense. They may make several passes in the half court, but still make some aggressive cuts to the basket... they just miss a lot. But that shouldn't be as much of a problem against IUPU's weaker defense, giving up over 55% FGs.
And even more importantly to me, they play man almost exclusively on defense. This really takes away their ability to control the pace of the game on defense, unlike some of the true snails out there that run a zone so they can force their opponents to make 3-5 passes on offense before they can get a shot up.
In fact, it wouldn't totally blow me away to see some portions of the game that are back and forth non-stop, as Dartmouth showed a willingness to get out and run with Notre Dame on more than one occasion (they just ran out of gas in the second half).
3. Both teams shoot FT's over 70%, that is always a big added bonus in these borderline total situations.
For the record, the one thing I don't like about this game is the time of year. I know all these kids love their sports, but it's really hard to stay focused with finals, graduation, holiday parties, etc etc. And I think it does affect the smaller conference teams even more; so you can't totally overlook the possibility that one of these teams just comes out flat and shoots sub 25% for awhile.
Hope this one works out though!
Thanks for pointing us in the right direction constantly this week OD.
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