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    All Forums | College Basketball

    🤢🥴_ Fubah's 2023 Hoops Thread _😲🥵

    «First Previous 171819 ... 99100101 Next Last»
    Hoyasaxa
    fubah2
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    Hoyasaxa
    Hoyasaxa
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    Posted: Mar. 7, 2023 - 10:03 AM ET #401

    Wow this is a crazy thread, do you mainly look for hoping on women’s favorites in trouble and believe live ML’s pay more than minus points even up? Are you looking at live metrics like poor shooting shooting %? 

    Are the live women’s algorithm lines softer?

    And do you do a little drinking as u go?

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    Wow this is a crazy thread, do you mainly look for hoping on women’s favorites in trouble and believe live ML’s pay more than minus points even up? Are you looking at live metrics like poor shooting shooting %? 

    Are the live women’s algorithm lines softer?

    And do you do a little drinking as u go?

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posted: Mar. 7, 2023 - 11:34 AM ET #402

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:

    Wow this is a crazy thread, do you mainly look for hoping on women’s favorites in trouble and believe live ML’s pay more than minus points even up? Are you looking at live metrics like poor shooting shooting %? Are the live women’s algorithm lines softer? And do you do a little drinking as u go?

    peace_5 You raise some interesting points.

    I believe only about 6% of my 182+ posted bets have been during LIVE ACTION. In most cases it is where I had capped a pick that was strong to win SU but the line was too risky, either ATS or ML, but esp ML.   So I keep that side circled and monitor the game - particularly the opening few mins when either team may go on a run to open up a lead. I find that road dogs often go on an early run to a lead almost as often as home favs do.... at which point I can jump on that fav at a much cheaper price than pregame.  Or if not then, usually at some point later in the game.  The fav's price drops considerably during the game when the score is tied or a single possession behind the dog, and yet that is routinely overcome by a strong HOME FAV in the final Q of a game - or in many cases - the final 3 minutes! 

    Yes, what I am monitoring via ESPN game page in the boxscores are

    - the FOULS situations!!! (which star is in danger and likely to sit  or foul out!),

    - who is dominating the glass (if either)

    - shooting% and shooting volumes,

    - bonus in effect yet?!? and which teams are deadly or weak at the charity stripe,

    - and if the teams are solid at hitting from the arc (during that game)

    There are a lot of moving parts and it takes practice, kinda like a golf swing, but now I can scan a boxscore quickly and know if a team is in a favorable position (or not!) to pull ahead and get the win, or if it is in jeopardy of a coin-flipper.  More often than not I just pass and lose nothing doing so.  But occasionally a great opportunity jumps out.  Last year I made $4k on a single game which went into OT.  I had passed on the game as a toss up earlier.  But entering OT the HOME FAVS had just fouled out their top scorer in the final minute of regulation , with their other two TOP scoring starters with 4 fouls each - and they had a weakass bench!! Surprisingly, the line on the home favs didn't budge!! I jumped all over that one on the dogs - those 2 "fav" starters fouled out as expected - and I won easily! 

    As for ATS or ML,  I prefer ML as I cap the games toward a probability to win or lose SU.  I will take dogs on the spread but not ML.

    In women's games the ML value is actually worse than mens in most cases.  But for some reason there are far fewer major upsets in women's games than mens.  Not sure why.   Womens teams who are favored by 2 possessions and up seem to win at a higher rate than mens although covering a spread is iffy.  So I prefer the ML on favs, particularly home favs, in both men and womens.

    Ha, no I don't drink at all when capping/betting.....leads to dumbass decisions. I do however eat small portions almost every hour along with brief blood-pumping exercise an_bounce to keep my energy levels elevated and clear-headed.  Works for me...

    BoL to you with your bets today and going forward clover

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:

    Wow this is a crazy thread, do you mainly look for hoping on women’s favorites in trouble and believe live ML’s pay more than minus points even up? Are you looking at live metrics like poor shooting shooting %? Are the live women’s algorithm lines softer? And do you do a little drinking as u go?

    peace_5 You raise some interesting points.

    I believe only about 6% of my 182+ posted bets have been during LIVE ACTION. In most cases it is where I had capped a pick that was strong to win SU but the line was too risky, either ATS or ML, but esp ML.   So I keep that side circled and monitor the game - particularly the opening few mins when either team may go on a run to open up a lead. I find that road dogs often go on an early run to a lead almost as often as home favs do.... at which point I can jump on that fav at a much cheaper price than pregame.  Or if not then, usually at some point later in the game.  The fav's price drops considerably during the game when the score is tied or a single possession behind the dog, and yet that is routinely overcome by a strong HOME FAV in the final Q of a game - or in many cases - the final 3 minutes! 

    Yes, what I am monitoring via ESPN game page in the boxscores are

    - the FOULS situations!!! (which star is in danger and likely to sit  or foul out!),

    - who is dominating the glass (if either)

    - shooting% and shooting volumes,

    - bonus in effect yet?!? and which teams are deadly or weak at the charity stripe,

    - and if the teams are solid at hitting from the arc (during that game)

    There are a lot of moving parts and it takes practice, kinda like a golf swing, but now I can scan a boxscore quickly and know if a team is in a favorable position (or not!) to pull ahead and get the win, or if it is in jeopardy of a coin-flipper.  More often than not I just pass and lose nothing doing so.  But occasionally a great opportunity jumps out.  Last year I made $4k on a single game which went into OT.  I had passed on the game as a toss up earlier.  But entering OT the HOME FAVS had just fouled out their top scorer in the final minute of regulation , with their other two TOP scoring starters with 4 fouls each - and they had a weakass bench!! Surprisingly, the line on the home favs didn't budge!! I jumped all over that one on the dogs - those 2 "fav" starters fouled out as expected - and I won easily! 

    As for ATS or ML,  I prefer ML as I cap the games toward a probability to win or lose SU.  I will take dogs on the spread but not ML.

    In women's games the ML value is actually worse than mens in most cases.  But for some reason there are far fewer major upsets in women's games than mens.  Not sure why.   Womens teams who are favored by 2 possessions and up seem to win at a higher rate than mens although covering a spread is iffy.  So I prefer the ML on favs, particularly home favs, in both men and womens.

    Ha, no I don't drink at all when capping/betting.....leads to dumbass decisions. I do however eat small portions almost every hour along with brief blood-pumping exercise an_bounce to keep my energy levels elevated and clear-headed.  Works for me...

    BoL to you with your bets today and going forward clover

     

     
    Hoyasaxa
    Hoyasaxa
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    Posted: Mar. 7, 2023 - 12:12 PM ET #403

    Ok thanks but it still sounds like you are Mai Ky jumping in live ML like yesterday after a women’s favorite got down.. that’s fine, probably very effective But if we’re following, we need to watch closely and i don’t think we can get notifications on this site. Sorry, got too much family!

    Thanks for your work 

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    Ok thanks but it still sounds like you are Mai Ky jumping in live ML like yesterday after a women’s favorite got down.. that’s fine, probably very effective But if we’re following, we need to watch closely and i don’t think we can get notifications on this site. Sorry, got too much family!

    Thanks for your work 

     
    Hoyasaxa
    Hoyasaxa
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    Posted: Mar. 7, 2023 - 12:13 PM ET #404

    *live jumping

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    *live jumping

     
    fubah2
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    Posted: Mar. 7, 2023 - 1:28 PM ET #405

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:

    Ok thanks but it still sounds like you are Mai Ky jumping in live ML like yesterday after a women’s favorite got down.. that’s fine, probably very effective But if we’re following, we need to watch closely and i don’t think we can get notifications on this site. Sorry, got too much family! Thanks for your work

    peace_5  Yeah, I see your point.....it would be very difficult for most to follow anyone's picks on those occasional games he bets during LIVE action (except perhaps a few halftimes)  Most here work for a living and have a family, etc.   I'm fortunate enough to be retired now so I have the time to not only cap TWO huge leagues (mens and womens) but also to score-watch and look for more opportunities.  Many here, like you, just can't do that - or certainly not consistently.

    But even so, anyone with the time during games can develop the wherewithall to spot the HOT opportunities in live action.  I don't just bet on any fav that is down in score.  It has to be a team that I had previously capped to be very strong to win outright - but the heavy ML prevented me from taking the large risk earlier.......Once your SOLID FAV gets down a little, the new much lower ML can be a GOOD opportunity for any sports-better to diy.....provided other game conditions are also favorable as noted above.

    GL with your bets an_cheers

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:

    Ok thanks but it still sounds like you are Mai Ky jumping in live ML like yesterday after a women’s favorite got down.. that’s fine, probably very effective But if we’re following, we need to watch closely and i don’t think we can get notifications on this site. Sorry, got too much family! Thanks for your work

    peace_5  Yeah, I see your point.....it would be very difficult for most to follow anyone's picks on those occasional games he bets during LIVE action (except perhaps a few halftimes)  Most here work for a living and have a family, etc.   I'm fortunate enough to be retired now so I have the time to not only cap TWO huge leagues (mens and womens) but also to score-watch and look for more opportunities.  Many here, like you, just can't do that - or certainly not consistently.

    But even so, anyone with the time during games can develop the wherewithall to spot the HOT opportunities in live action.  I don't just bet on any fav that is down in score.  It has to be a team that I had previously capped to be very strong to win outright - but the heavy ML prevented me from taking the large risk earlier.......Once your SOLID FAV gets down a little, the new much lower ML can be a GOOD opportunity for any sports-better to diy.....provided other game conditions are also favorable as noted above.

    GL with your bets an_cheers

     

     
    fubah2
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    Posted: Mar. 7, 2023 - 4:03 PM ET #406

    Tuesday, March 7, WOMENS;

    LIVE bet @HT.....Vastly superior Jaspers down by 3 to winless Peacocks.

    They lead by 7 after 1Q, but went cold in 2Q.   Winless Peacocks unlikely to sustain that though....Boxscores look OK for a comeback as they are not playing badly, just that Peacocks got hot shooting which is unusual for them.

    I expect a robust comeback: JASPERS -300 to win game  *BEST BET

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    Tuesday, March 7, WOMENS;

    LIVE bet @HT.....Vastly superior Jaspers down by 3 to winless Peacocks.

    They lead by 7 after 1Q, but went cold in 2Q.   Winless Peacocks unlikely to sustain that though....Boxscores look OK for a comeback as they are not playing badly, just that Peacocks got hot shooting which is unusual for them.

    I expect a robust comeback: JASPERS -300 to win game  *BEST BET

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posted: Mar. 7, 2023 - 4:24 PM ET #407

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    Tuesday, March 7, WOMENS; LIVE bet @HT.....Vastly superior Jaspers down by 3 to winless Peacocks. They lead by 7 after 1Q, but went cold in 2Q.   Winless Peacocks unlikely to sustain that though....Boxscores look OK for a comeback as they are not playing badly, just that Peacocks got hot shooting which is unusual for them. I expect a robust comeback: JASPERS -300 to win game  *BEST BET

    Of course, anything can happen in sports, often bucking probability.......upsets do occur frequently at this time of year but very rare for a winless 0 -20 team to upset a 10 - 10 team which is 10 full games margin better......very rare......but I'm ok if it happens....I will be relaoding bets if/when the ML on Jaspers get down into the sub-180 territory with at least 8 mins left or more.......would still be plenty of time to comeback even if down say 8 pts....

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    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    Tuesday, March 7, WOMENS; LIVE bet @HT.....Vastly superior Jaspers down by 3 to winless Peacocks. They lead by 7 after 1Q, but went cold in 2Q.   Winless Peacocks unlikely to sustain that though....Boxscores look OK for a comeback as they are not playing badly, just that Peacocks got hot shooting which is unusual for them. I expect a robust comeback: JASPERS -300 to win game  *BEST BET

    Of course, anything can happen in sports, often bucking probability.......upsets do occur frequently at this time of year but very rare for a winless 0 -20 team to upset a 10 - 10 team which is 10 full games margin better......very rare......but I'm ok if it happens....I will be relaoding bets if/when the ML on Jaspers get down into the sub-180 territory with at least 8 mins left or more.......would still be plenty of time to comeback even if down say 8 pts....

     
    fubah2
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    Posted: Mar. 7, 2023 - 4:32 PM ET #408

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Tuesday, March 7, WOMENS; LIVE bet @HT.....Vastly superior Jaspers down by 3 to winless Peacocks. They lead by 7 after 1Q, but went cold in 2Q.   Winless Peacocks unlikely to sustain that though....Boxscores look OK for a comeback as they are not playing badly, just that Peacocks got hot shooting which is unusual for them. I expect a robust comeback: JASPERS -300 to win game  *BEST BET Of course, anything can happen in sports, often bucking probability.......upsets do occur frequently at this time of year but very rare for a winless 0 -20 team to upset a 10 - 10 team which is 10 full games margin better......very rare......but I'm ok if it happens....I will be relaoding bets if/when the ML on Jaspers get down into the sub-180 territory with at least 8 mins left or more.......would still be plenty of time to comeback even if down say 8 pts....

    oooBOY! an_nailbiter  Jaspers NOT lighting it up in 3Q as one might expect they would..... uh-oh....down 6 now....

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    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Tuesday, March 7, WOMENS; LIVE bet @HT.....Vastly superior Jaspers down by 3 to winless Peacocks. They lead by 7 after 1Q, but went cold in 2Q.   Winless Peacocks unlikely to sustain that though....Boxscores look OK for a comeback as they are not playing badly, just that Peacocks got hot shooting which is unusual for them. I expect a robust comeback: JASPERS -300 to win game  *BEST BET Of course, anything can happen in sports, often bucking probability.......upsets do occur frequently at this time of year but very rare for a winless 0 -20 team to upset a 10 - 10 team which is 10 full games margin better......very rare......but I'm ok if it happens....I will be relaoding bets if/when the ML on Jaspers get down into the sub-180 territory with at least 8 mins left or more.......would still be plenty of time to comeback even if down say 8 pts....

    oooBOY! an_nailbiter  Jaspers NOT lighting it up in 3Q as one might expect they would..... uh-oh....down 6 now....

     
    fubah2
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    Posted: Mar. 7, 2023 - 4:37 PM ET #409

    This 0 - 20 Peacocks women's team averages 34% from the floor on the season but 56% today?!?!?! an_getaway

    Jaspers *MUST* start the 4thQ on fire or big trouble.....

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    This 0 - 20 Peacocks women's team averages 34% from the floor on the season but 56% today?!?!?! an_getaway

    Jaspers *MUST* start the 4thQ on fire or big trouble.....

     
    fubah2
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    Posted: Mar. 7, 2023 - 4:43 PM ET #410

    But they haven't yet.......4 consecutive trips down the floor and  zip against the 0 - 20 team........

     

    Now down by 7 pts in mid 4thQ to the winless 0 - 20 team........BIG UPSET looming in Women's CBK......

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    But they haven't yet.......4 consecutive trips down the floor and  zip against the 0 - 20 team........

     

    Now down by 7 pts in mid 4thQ to the winless 0 - 20 team........BIG UPSET looming in Women's CBK......

     
    fubah2
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    Posted: Mar. 7, 2023 - 4:58 PM ET #411

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    But they haven't yet.......4 consecutive trips down the floor and  zip against the 0 - 20 team........   Now down by 7 pts in mid 4thQ to the winless 0 - 20 team........BIG UPSET looming in Women's CBK......

    The 10 - 10 Jaspers are now down 2 possessions with 2.5 mins to play and they have possession but they have gone totally COLD! an_nailbiter......either missing shots or turning it over nearly every time they have it......against an 0 - 20 winless team....

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    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    But they haven't yet.......4 consecutive trips down the floor and  zip against the 0 - 20 team........   Now down by 7 pts in mid 4thQ to the winless 0 - 20 team........BIG UPSET looming in Women's CBK......

    The 10 - 10 Jaspers are now down 2 possessions with 2.5 mins to play and they have possession but they have gone totally COLD! an_nailbiter......either missing shots or turning it over nearly every time they have it......against an 0 - 20 winless team....

     
    fubah2
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    Posted: Mar. 7, 2023 - 5:05 PM ET #412

    Jaspers grab the lead in the final minute!!  an_nailbiter

     

    whew..... WINNER!

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    Jaspers grab the lead in the final minute!!  an_nailbiter

     

    whew..... WINNER!

     
    mrt
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    Posted: Mar. 7, 2023 - 5:08 PM ET #413

    @fubah2

     Well done!an_cheers

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    @fubah2

     Well done!an_cheers

     
    fubah2
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    Posted: Mar. 7, 2023 - 5:14 PM ET #414

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    Jaspers grab the lead in the final minute!! an_nailbiter  

    whew..... WINNER!

      OMG ....   new_dead 

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    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    Jaspers grab the lead in the final minute!! an_nailbiter  

    whew..... WINNER!

      OMG ....   new_dead 

     
    winners1941
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    Posted: Mar. 7, 2023 - 5:19 PM ET #415

    @fubah2

     grats!!!!!

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    @fubah2

     grats!!!!!

     
    Hoyasaxa
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    Posted: Mar. 7, 2023 - 5:49 PM ET #416

    Are they all like that? 

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    Are they all like that? 

     
    fubah2
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    Posted: Mar. 7, 2023 - 5:57 PM ET #417

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:

    Are they all like that?

    I freakn' hope not!  My ticker couldn't possibly handle it ......  new_dead

     

    WOMENS NCAA YTD:   42 - 17

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:

    Are they all like that?

    I freakn' hope not!  My ticker couldn't possibly handle it ......  new_dead

     

    WOMENS NCAA YTD:   42 - 17

     
    jackedward32
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    Posted: Mar. 7, 2023 - 7:15 PM ET #418

    @fubah2

     

     Love the play by play. Felt the stress and angst like it was one of my own games. new_laugh_cry

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    @fubah2

     

     Love the play by play. Felt the stress and angst like it was one of my own games. new_laugh_cry

     
    fubah2
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    Posted: Mar. 7, 2023 - 7:16 PM ET #419

     

     

       an_2drinks   NCAA hoops YTD:    121 - 57

     

     

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       an_2drinks   NCAA hoops YTD:    121 - 57

     

     

     
    fubah2
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    Posted: Mar. 7, 2023 - 8:39 PM ET #420

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    NCAA hoops YTD:   121 - 57

         My *BEST BETS in NCAA MENS remains  57 - 23

     

     

    ... so far

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    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    NCAA hoops YTD:   121 - 57

         My *BEST BETS in NCAA MENS remains  57 - 23

     

     

    ... so far

     
    kidd22
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    Posted: Mar. 7, 2023 - 8:56 PM ET #421

    Yup still waiting on men’s peace_5

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    Yup still waiting on men’s peace_5

     
    fubah2
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    Posted: Mar. 8, 2023 - 5:10 AM ET #422

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    an_2drinks   NCAA hoops YTD:   121 - 57     

    My *BEST BETS in NCAA MENS remains  57 - 23   ... so far

    MARCH 08, MENS:

    WAKE -145    (overnight line @Bet365) 

    This one could be another #$%&! nailbiter as my usual metrics are ambivalent here, so I'm leaning more on a hunch than usual

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    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    an_2drinks   NCAA hoops YTD:   121 - 57     

    My *BEST BETS in NCAA MENS remains  57 - 23   ... so far

    MARCH 08, MENS:

    WAKE -145    (overnight line @Bet365) 

    This one could be another #$%&! nailbiter as my usual metrics are ambivalent here, so I'm leaning more on a hunch than usual

     
    Zeus4par
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    Posted: Mar. 8, 2023 - 5:58 AM ET #423

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    In NCAA action today:         

    7 - 1       (with 6 - 0 *BestBets!! )

     

    Good job there, Fubah! moneybag

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    In NCAA action today:         

    7 - 1       (with 6 - 0 *BestBets!! )

     

    Good job there, Fubah! moneybag

     

     
    fubah2
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    Posted: Mar. 8, 2023 - 6:28 AM ET #424

    Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par:

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: In NCAA action today:          7 - 1       (with 6 - 0 *BestBets!! )   Good job there, Fubah!

    Thank you peace_5

    BoL with your bets Wednesday!

     

     

    Was considering Panthers on first glance but the Yellow Jackets are hot and waiting to jump at an upset

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par:

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: In NCAA action today:          7 - 1       (with 6 - 0 *BestBets!! )   Good job there, Fubah!

    Thank you peace_5

    BoL with your bets Wednesday!

     

     

    Was considering Panthers on first glance but the Yellow Jackets are hot and waiting to jump at an upset

     
     
    fubah2
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    Posted: Mar. 8, 2023 - 7:23 AM ET #425

     

    an_2drinks    NCAA hoops YTD:   121 - 57  

     

    Bison -375  (overnight lines @Bet365)                                                                       *BB

     

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    an_2drinks    NCAA hoops YTD:   121 - 57  

     

    Bison -375  (overnight lines @Bet365)                                                                       *BB

     

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