All Forums | CFL

week 6 relative strength lines, picks

Participants:

Posts: 35

Indigo999

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2015

Posts: 6619

Posted: Jul. 29, 2017 - 2:42 PM ET #26

Here's some queries related to the Calgary/Hamilton game.

HF and day and n:day=Thursday and not DIV

0-3 ATS 3-0 O/U on Saturdays

Why do home favorites play so poorly when their next game is on Thursday?

I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that I don't believe time is linear, but how exactly this is impacting these home favorites, I don't know, and I don't need to know, but this is also relevant in the NFL...home favorites lose against the spread by a significant amount when their next game is a Thursday game. (This is actually 19-53 ATS in the NFL before week 11, losing by >4 points game ATS, 4-18 ATS in divisional games.) Not all queries transfer between the NFL and CFL, or the NCAA for that matter, but the ones that do are very, very good.

Also.....

HF and p:HW and op:HL

A home favorite that has won last week at home playing a team that lost at home last game has been.......

10-17 ATS

9-18 O/U

If we include the lines ONLY between 3 and 14 points this moves to 3-14 ATS, 6-10 O/U on the home favorite.

AvidGuru

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2015

Posts: 1710

Posted: Jul. 29, 2017 - 3:20 PM ET #27

Always enjoy hearing your thoughts on the Canadian Football League, Indigo. I agree with almost everything thus far.

These CFL threads are almost troll-free, which is refreshing.

Excellent YTD, sir. Personally I am 6-2 (documented on Twitter FreePicks) and I was on the U51 MTL/WPG

Living in Winnipeg, I was ecstatic about that comeback win! Of course, being a handicapper I have learned the hard way yo remove all emotion.

We are both on the Argos tonight. Best of luck

fitchris562

Veteran

Joined: May, 2013

Posts: 4774

Posted: Jul. 29, 2017 - 3:28 PM ET #28

Liking that Argo play. They have a great history vs Sask.
Argo +3.5 buying a point. (Some don't like buying but it's worked for me over the past few years. . Good Luck all.
Argos ML

exchamp

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 345

Posted: Jul. 29, 2017 - 5:33 PM ET #29

Argos +3.5 wtf

fitchris562

Veteran

Joined: May, 2013

Posts: 4774

Posted: Jul. 29, 2017 - 6:03 PM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by exchamp:

Argos +3.5 wtf

I'm buying a pt. that's why it's 3.5 Argos
The point saves me most of the time.

exchamp

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 345

Posted: Jul. 29, 2017 - 6:26 PM ET #31

Sask -2.5

Indigo999

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2015

Posts: 6619

Posted: Jul. 29, 2017 - 8:13 PM ET #32

Good to see you guys, it's half time.

Toss up game, literally and figuratively....some nice catches first half.

Those last 3 CFL minutes make it like an NBA game sometimes.

Ricky Ray looks fine....the offensive line for the Argos looks a bit suspect, which I'll keep in mind for when they play good defensive lines like the Als. Argos to me look like an 11-7 team and with both of the divisional rivals that could threaten them (Als, Redblacks) off to slow starts, it looks pretty clear to me that they'll win the East. However, if Ray gets injured, which with his offensive line being an issue could happen, it could all fall apart for the Argos.

Indigo999

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2015

Posts: 6619

Posted: Jul. 29, 2017 - 9:10 PM ET #33

3) OVER 53.5 Argos/Riders Win

30-24 with 8 minutes left. C'mon Ricky let's get six.

spottie2935

Banned

Joined: Jun, 2001

Posts: 23161

Posted: Jul. 29, 2017 - 9:23 PM ET #34

some real tough things for Argo backers in this game.

Why does Trestman throw an option pass when they should be able to move the ball against the Riders with no gimmicks?

Why does Trestman go for 2 ?

Why does the Argo not touch the guy down to get the ball back on a two and out? Late in the 4th Q.

Some times the CFL aggravates me also haha

Spottie2935 on socials

Indigo999

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2015

Posts: 6619

Posted: Jul. 29, 2017 - 9:39 PM ET #35

4) Argos +3 Loss

2-2 for the week

13-8-1 STD.

Bonehead play of the year. Besides guys laying the ball down on the ground 3 yards before they get into the end zone as a guy is preparing to score, I don't think I've ever seen such a ridiculous brainlock play....

"Dude what were you thinking?"

And, it is true Spot, this is the CFL where safeties and rouges (sp?) are common,...you always get the point unless you are in the last 5 minutes of a game. Trestman is supposed to be a logical guy, wrong thinking there.

I'll go out of my way to help an old lady across the street this week and we'll win a lucky game next week.

All Forums | CFL

week 6 relative strength lines, picks

Hot Forum Topics