Indigo week 3

5-4, + 3.3 units

Hopefully Saskatchewan has a new kicker for week 3.

Perhaps I spoke too soon about the state of quarterbacking in the CFL, as we saw some pretty abysmal play from qbs this weekend.

Whether the linemaker actually watches CFL games is debatable,....if they did they'd want to make the line on favorites this weekend sky high, as the difference between the haves and have-nots this year looks to be huge.  We normally think that last week's performances, both very good and very bad, will revert to the mean, but I will say it will be very difficult to back a team quarterbacked by Matthew Shiltz, Nick Arbuckle and Tre Ford based on what transpired their last game against the tough and very well coached defenses of Winnipeg, Saskatchewan and Montreal this upcoming week(end).

Week 3 Indigo lines

  a)  Edmonton +6 Montreal

  b)  Toronto +6' (Arbuckle starting) Saskatchewan.....+3 if Kelly starts

  c)  Calgary -8 Ottawa (with Shiltz)......-3' if Dru Brown starts

  d)  BC +2' (with Rourke) Bombers.......+6 if Masoli starts 

1)  Home non-divisional favorites weeks 3-6 that played in one or zero playoff games last season have gone 25-35 ATS.....VERSUS Stampeders

2)  Home non-divisional dogs that missed the playoffs last season in weeks 3-6 have gone 14-10....on Elks

3)  Home dogs weeks 3-6 that lost their previous game by over 7 points have gone 19-12 ATS.....ON Elks, Lions, Argonauts

4)  Away dogs weeks 3-6 that lost their previous game by over 7 points have gone 37-20 ATS.....ON Redblacks

5)  Winless teams week 3  versus an unbeaten foe have only gone 4-7 ATS....however AFTER week 3, they've gone 7-2 ATS in weeks 4/5, so we'll keep our eye out for this situation next week.

Fanduel has a couple of lines up for the week's upcoming games.

  a)  Edmonton +3'  48' Montreal

  b)  Calgary      -1'  50' Ottawa

Either me or the linemaker is very, very off in their assessment of the relative strength of these teams.

Fanduel lines, updated...........Indigo lines on right

  a)  Edmonton +3' 48'                 Edmonton +6

  b)  Toronto +2' 48'                    Toronto +6'

  c)  Calgary -1', 50'                     Calgary -3' (with Ottawa's Brown being the qb)

I am all for reversion to the mean....it is necessary to be able to win in the CFL,...however I don't believe that regression will start for another week or two when the linemaker actually has an accurate idea of the true strength of each team.

FanDuel has Edm +5.5 now and if it reaches *7.5 I’m buying Edm.  I hope they do better at home than their nhl team.  

Ott*1.5 and again +3 would be nice 

who’s starting qb?  Ott played 2 of the top teams.  Calgary has holes and not elite.  That being said though Ottawa can’t just show up 

indigo you might want to do a query on Calgary as a home favorite.  After their awesome season and cup runs their HF ats record is in question.  I know it’s possible that team data isn’t important but some of the CFL data is relevant to me. 

I had a 3-2 week losers were bc/Wog under and Ticats+3.5 

winners we’re WPG  MTL and under Argos 

Argos look like a play on paper but the worst cfl team is unplayable so far they are on the bottom with the elks only playing on game. Argos 29 points total in 2 games.  Reminds me of how bad Ottawa and the elks were after the cfl resumed after Covid. 

Calgary's had their regression to the mean the last two years....they got rid of the worst quarterback and the worst defensive coordinator in the CFL....they are buys until the bookmaker realizes they are no longer a bottom 3 team.  The quarterback is at least 7 points a game better than what they've had and their defense is 7 points/game better.  The linemaker obviously hasn't gotten the memo.

There is an angle that favors Ottawa this week, but the line is very much in error.  Ottawa was 2-7 on the road last season.  If they run Shiltz  out there again, I will be on the Stamps big.  If Brown is playing it will be an OVER play and if the Stamps are favored by 3 or less I'll be on the Stamps.  My view is you can often get away with a bad quarterback at home, but you can't on the road.

And, typically the champs and the runners-up are fades the next season and going back two seasons.....Winnipeg being a notable exception, (as well as the Panthers in the NHL).  The Chiefs have had a hard time covering pointspreads the last few years, the 49ers fell apart after being a Super Bowl loser  and  the Celtics and Mavericks  both ran into difficulty this year.  You and me are both down on the Chiefs, and we'll find out soon enough if we're right.  That AFC West is gonna be a very tough division for the next few years....every coach is excellent, Andy Reid isn't going to last forever and after he's gone it will be a cataclysmic collapse like what happened with the Packers and Patriots when Lombardi and Belichick left.

Even when Toronto gets Kelly back, I think they'll have a tough time.....they were only 10-8 last year, and struggled at the qb position, until everything went right in the playoffs for them with a very suspect quarterback.  The Argos lost half of their defense and both defensive coordinators.  Meanwhile, Montreal ran through everyone last year, only to get upset in the Eastern Divisional finals.....they're still hungry and very well coached, and unless they get injured, they will crush people this season as they are better at the quarterback position than they were last season.

My initial reaction always calms down as the week progresses. 

Montreal is one of the elite and the elite are fruitful.  Every season is at least on team.  Now I will say if they blow out Edm this week week 4 is a big time regression week for Montreal 

you’re probable right in Calgary but it’s not up up up on them.  They have some issues and their meanderings as the season moves on will be evident.  

Toronto I agree with 100%

 Sask is better than their 5-18-1 road record but if they cover 2 roads in a row?  Maybe because they play the bottom tier teams. 

the totals that are lines so far are still under 51 this week

to me that’s a signal of lack of parody elevated total back in the day were dogs show out strong.  Some teams are still showing weak signs or negatives.  At this points I have to slim back. 

I’ll check in later in the week.  

6)  A non-divisional home dog before week 6 that will be on the road their next game......27-12 ATS, 21-17 straight up.......ON Elks, Argonauts.....if this is either a Thursday or Friday game this moves to 16-4 ATS (+4.8), 11-8-1 straight up (+0.8)......Elks, Argonauts

7)  A home non-divisional dog before week 7 whose present opponent is off a win of greater than 7 points.....20-12 ATS (+4.2), 17-15 straight up (+0.1)......ON Elks.....if our home dog is off a loss of greater than 7 points as well, this has been 10-6 ATS (+3.3), 7-9 straight up (-1.4)......Elks

8)  A non-divisional favorite off two straight wins of greater than 3 points before week 7.....11-19 ATS.....VERSUS Alouettes, Roughriders, Stampeders

Keep this: NHL playoffs

teams that continue to be favorites do not keep winning 

season>2008 and playoffs=1 and pp:F and p:F and F and 5>streak>1 and month<6 and tS(W)>36 and series game<6

MLB playoffs=0

season>2020 and F and p:F and pp:F and ppp:F and month<10 and month!=7 and -109>line>-175 and -1>streak>-7 and day!=Sunday and ou streak<6 and p:margin<-1 and site

This one has worked very well this season.....still waiting for it to start reversion..........I don't play the games where the public is on the indicated team, which makes this even better.

MLB

AD and line<=170 and month>4 and tS(W@A, N=3)>0 and season=2025

Yea that’s good single season winning queries don’t last forever so get it while it’s hot

with a month change tread lightly or stop and see if it continues. 

question about:

 tS(W@A, N=3)>0

Those dogs had to have at least one away win last 3 away games? 

CFL = Lions 

o:team=po:team and p:A and p:F and week<18 and H and p:points>17 and day!=Thursday

team=Lions and Po:team=Blue Bombers and p:A and p:F and week<18 and H and p:points>17  (0-3)

o:team=Po:team and p:A and p:F and week<18 and H and p:points>17 and day!=Thursday (and month=6) 4-4

o:team=po:team and p:A and p:F and week<18 and H and p:points>17 and day!=Thursday and month=6  (1-0)

Yes, "tS(W@A, N=3)" is the amount of wins in their last three road games.

If you use 

tS(W@A, N=3)

you'll see that even taking the run line for a team that has a three game road losing streak has been pretty good.

I have eliminated taking the Athletics, White Sox and Rockies, and probably will eliminate the Rangers now as well.

I find that streaks or angles tend to end around the full or new moon....a couple of days before.

Play:

1)  Calgary -114, 2 units

The linemaker is assuming Brown will play.  Maybe he does, and if not we get about 7 points of value..... the Redblacks could not win on the road last season and I'll pay to see if they can, or can't.  It's doubtful that Reggie Begleton would play, but they did fine without him against the Argonauts.

Pretty likely I will play the OVER if Brown is named the starter for Ottawa.

I really have wanted to take the Alouettes, as you would know by reading this thread that I am very high on.  However winless non-divisional home dogs whose next game is on the road have gone 15-4 ATS (Elks, Argonauts)  if we exclude Sunday games.....sometimes the gut (right brain) and the data (left brain) are in conflict, and we most of the time make those situations a no-play.  Modern football now is all about the quarterback......until Arbuckle, Ford or Shiltz show me something other than disaster I cannot back their teams.

Saskatchewan is a team ready to lose a game, and they for whatever reason this season decided to go with a kicker who has big-time episodes of melting down in games.  The first time shame on him, but a second time it's shame on you Roughriders.  You had a whole off-season to get the kicker position handled and if you haven't at least someone lined up to take over if what happened last season happened again, it's your fault.......the kicking game will cost you some games and cost bettors money, as it did last week. 

The Riders have had a very auspicious schedule which has made them look better than what they are.....we'll look to fade them later rather than sooner unless Kelly plays for the Argos as we can't back a team whose quarterback has had a habit of giving points to the opposing team.

Quarterbacks Kelly, Rourke and Brown limited in practice.  Ottawa had three linebackers and two defensive linemen not practice today. 

Quarterbacks are basically the franchise these days.  Unless it's the playoffs the default is to sit them until they're sure the injury won't get aggravated to where there's an ongoing problem.  The line would skyrocket if Rourke is out, and to a lesser extent if Brown is out, though in my eyes Brown is  at least as valuable as Rourke.

When Kelly came back from suspension last year, he didn't set the world on fire.

More ominously if that's possible for the Argos, McManus didn't practice....it could be one of those unforeseeably terrible first to worst seasons for the Argos.  If the Argos lose this weekend and Arbuckle is still turning it over, they'll have to get someone else in there at qb.

Will be interesting to see if the Alouettes give their rookie running back who impressed late last week some run versus the Elks.

Olivera was out for the Bombers and I would expect Winnipeg will make him sit.

Lines moving....Stamps now a home dog.

Goes back to what was mentioned last week.....a non-divisional home dog that outrush yards their opponent has gone 31-6 ATS before week 7, 28-8 straight up.

Looking likely Brown will start at qb for Ottawa.

And Mon moved a point and Win up a half at DK