Indigo week 3

@Indigo999

 They are banged up bad.  Once that came out the line flipped. 

We're talking the Stamps, correct?

I am opting out of my Stampeders play.....this particular line move doesn't pass the smell test,....I am paying 0.1 units (5% of my stake) to buy out.

The line is sooooo off that when things look too good to be true, they usually aren't......perhaps I have a blind spot when it comes to the Stamps, or as someone mentioned, they have injuries that are more extensive than first thought.

Very often  successful wagering  has happened when there has been grave misgivings that a bet could win.

One very successful football bettor on covers once said  in a post that he bets on teams he thinks may well lose, but he plays them anyway, because they fit with his betting criteria for a play.   I agree 100% with him.

This play is just the opposite, so I'm out.

Play:

1)  Ottawa/Calgary OVER 51, 1 unit

When both teams score over 20 points, the OVER is 84-15-1, 84.8%,  going OVER by an average of 11.2 points/game in the first 6 weeks of the season in non-divisional matchups.  I am betting that both teams go over 20....last week's Saskatchewan/Hamilton game was a notable exception, as both teams went over 20 points but the game itself didn't go OVER.

points>20 and o:points>20 and H and week<7 and not DIV

Play:

2)  Montreal/Edmonton UNDER 48', 1 unit

The same line of thinking, in reverse,...when at least one team scores less than 21 points in an early season non-divisional game, the UNDER hits at a rate of 82.5%, going UNDER by an average of 8.8 points/game.

I’m not shocked you’re adding totals.  In the past there have been so many away dog possibilities and very few regular season home dogs. Not the case so far 

1 in week one 

7 of 8 since. 

Yes, I am not feeling it with sides this week.

@Indigo999

 Right, Calgary.  

I'll feel better about taking crummy teams after about week 4....most often bad teams stay bad for 1/4 of the season, and good teams get inflated lines, and then injuries, fatigue and regression take place to even the playing field after the first month of games.

In a related observation, ESPN puts out its power rankings for major league baseball every week.  The top six teams went 14-14 this week, often as favorites over -160.

The bottom six teams went 16-14, often as huge underdogs.

Baseball is great, because it is rare that teams win over 60% of their games....they'll all lose, with the exception of a couple of teams each year, at least 60 times in a season.  One can have very nice returns with a winning betting percentage of between 45-50%.

McManus and Kelly both out for Toronto.....did Toronto make a deal with the devil to win the Grey Cup last year?....this is shaping up as the year from hell for the Argos.....line moving north of +3.....Sasquatches didn't exactly crush their first two mediocre opponents.....will stay away unless the line skyrockets to +6.

Plays:

1)  Montreal/Edmonton UNDER 48', 1 unit

2)  Calgary/Ottawa OVER 51', 1 unit

Nathan Rourke did not practice today.....we'll see where the line goes if he's out....I am very surprised the sportsbooks are offering a line with his status being so uncertain.

That line is gonna go ballistic if he's out.

I used to be ambivalent about fading the public.....I hadn't ever tracked it and there have been many on covers who have a blatant disdain to the idea.  It's probably too simple of an idea for many....but as Einstein said, "make things as simple as possible, but no simpler.

Research can be a superpower, it can prove or disprove a lot and it seems to be a very rare thing that bettors do that kind of thing.

"Well, why not?"......you are putting money on the line and it should be worth your while to see if there is validity in where you are putting you money into.

I'd say less than 10% of bettors do anything but a cursory amount of research into betting.....what a pity.

Every time I've tracked fading the public over a period of months, it has shown me that it is a sound strategy, either on its own, or as a filter with another +EV angle.

It has been excellent this year in major league baseball.

One reason perhaps that it is not elevated to the status it deserves is that it is very, very difficult, at least in the beginning to play on teams that everyone else has neglected.  When there is 25% of the public on a side or total, you are going against a landslide of public opinion, and it seems much worse when one loses a game that everyone else is on the other side.

I have been using visn to get public betting percentages.  I am not a shill for them, but the 20 bucks or whatever I pay them per month, just for public betting percentages info has been worth it.

It is Thursday now in the west and I'll list the public betting percentage that they have now.  I use 35% of less as a basis of making a play.  As mentioned earlier, I like to wait until about a 1/4 of a season has played out to get serious about fading the public, and we're not at that point yet in the CFL.  Still, it is worth monitoring as a fun exercise.  

VSIN provides two bits of betting info,....the percentages of bets and the handle (percentage of money bet).  When one is below 35%, the handle for example, I don't play that team if the betting percentage is above 65% on the same side.  Otherwise, I look to take the team that not many people want to bet on.

Side              handle         bets           OVER handle               bets

Edmonton       26%          76%                      50%                 84%      UNDER

Toronto           22%          26%                      99%                 91%      Toronto and UNDER

Calgary           77%           84%                     95%                 76%      Ottawa and UNDER

BC                    6%          18%                      68%                 82%      BC and UNDER

As usually happens the public in a big way is on favorites and OVERs.

We'll see how this goes as the season matures.

9)  A home non-divisional dog off a home loss in weeks 3-6......11-1 ATS (+8.4), 9-3 straight up (+4.3).....ON Argos

This would be a classic bettor's "WTF happened?" bet as the Argos' two best players will not play and they have been pretty terrible, especially on offense the last couple of weeks.  We'll see if we can't milk a couple of more points out of the linemaker as we get closer to game time and then we might possibly be persuaded to take on the mighty, mighty Toronto side.

Plays:

  1)  Montreal UNDER 48', 1 unit...............loser

Only lost by 17.5 points.....Tre Ford brought them back....the guy is wildly inaccurate, but he makes plays....if you can score 28 against Montreal, that is saying something.  I probably will be on them going forward except when they play the Bombers and the Alouettes.  If Ford could've hit a couple of open receivers towards the end of the 4th quarter they could've had a chance.

Nathan Rourke questionable and Dru Brown is out, and it is looking likely that Alexander will be out for at least a couple of weeks for Montreal.....they're dropping like flies.

  2)  Ottawa OVER 51', 1 unit......this bet was played with the idea that Brown would play....the line has dropped a lot since, as it should.  Crum will start....very good running quarterback, but is afraid to throw that ball more than 10 yards down the field.  Ottawa also has a bunch of defenders out as well.  The Stamps should trash them, if they know how to handle a guy who gets out of the pocket in a millisecond to run.

  3)  Calgary -2', -118, 2 units......late to the party, but hopeful the Stamps will keep it rolling.  Crum is a savvy, but limited quarterback.

After Montreal the big public favorite covering im betting the rest of the dogs this week 

all singles and one 3 team parlay in case they all do cover.

 Next week is a big trend against Montreal.

i didn’t take the pregame line last night I bet Edmonton in game because sometimes a bad team like Edmonton starts slow and I get a better line.  In this case I was fortunate.

  I think scheduling is impacting the dog favorite results so far.   History has  Sask being a terrible road team.  Also qb sit outs arbucke in collaros out  impacted that line in winnipegs only game played. 

I am against Sask trying to win back to back road games. 

Ott  has played 2 top teams so far.
Calgary beat Hamilton that  started last year 2-9 SU, and Toronto with Arbuckle. And Calgary has been a crap home favorite.

BC to turn the tables on WPG in a back to back matchup.  

being that I have a 3 team pregame parlay I can sit and wait for better lines and opportunities now. I already have a small slice of the pregame line.  

Sask a favorite 2x and now 3 x and haven’t won by a TD margin yet. 

Calgary dogs in both games against Toronto and Hamilton 

Bc favorites 2x and Wpg one game a dog win 

just letting you know what I see and how I see it. 

I don’t want or like being against you so either way best wishes.  

I need you to be successful because if not you’ll go away and that’s not to my benefit. 

so of course best wishes 

I’m finally having a great start to a cfl season.  Long over due 

When baseball has early games, I am up at 3 a.m here in the far east....by the time the CFL game has started, there can be isolated times of dozing off.  

That happened today, as I fell asleep with about 7 minutes left in the Sasquatch/Argos game.....missed a pretty amazing finish.....would've been a heartbreaker for Argonaut fans....and yes, the Roughrider kicker could've cost Saskatchewan the game.

The green and white will be fade material now......if they're giving more than 3 points against BC next week at home, I might be inclined to back the visitors.  Of course the line will depend on the availability of Rourke, though I personally don't think there is much of a drop-off between him and Masoli, much less of a difference than between the Ottawa starter and backups.

I did take Montreal in the first game, but it won't count on my covers' record.