CFL week 9 Indigo lines/discussion

Last week 3-0

Season to date 26-11 ATS.

Even if I would have gone 0-2 in that Rider/Lions game, it was by far the best game of the season.  Very impressed by BC, they are much better than I thought they were.  Their defensive coordinator is superb.  They could win a Cup in the next couple of years.

Ottawa is gonna be unbackable for the rest of the season, their starting quarterback Davis has now thrown 3 pick sixes in his last 3 games.....don't even look at their lines, guys, because Mister Bookmaker is gonna put out some juicy ones to entice those that love a good deal.

1)  Ottawa +11   48  Edmonton

2)  Lions     +3    48  Winnipeg

3)  Hamilton -6   44  Montreal

4)  Calgary  +4   49  Riders

This will be the acid test for the Lions this year to see if they can pick themselves off the mat off of that heartbreaker.  They ought to put a positive spin on it, but usually teams do better on the road off of a loss like that than at home.  Mike Reilly was excellent under the rush of Saskatchewan......well, he'll face the best front in the league in the Bombers and the Bombers can make average offensive lines look really, really bad.  I am really looking forward to that game.

Is it time for the Vernon Adams experiment to be over?  They've got no real options in their bullpen, but the Adams doesn't look or act like a quarterback.  With the rushing yards the Alouettes are generating, they should be covering games.  They better win this week or they can pretty much kiss their playoff hopes good-bye and there wii be four playoff teams in the west as usual.  I like their chances this week, especially if the Cats put out the same qb as they did last week in generating 14 points of offense against the Redblacks.

Calgary also will have to figure out what they'll do with their quarterback in the off-season.  BLM has been great for them, but now he's hurt all the time and their second guy is younger and just as good as  he is.  Teams often see the writing on the wall a couple of years too late in this kind of situation, but I'd put the Stamps organization as much better than average......this should be the last season for Levi Mitchell....you could trade him and  get a couple of number ones for him sending him to a clueless organization, like the Alouettes.  

Montreal is an underdog who will be favored their next two games (play Redblacks their next two).

In the NFL, week 4 home favorites with less than 2 wins....45-79 ATS.

Possibles......Bears, Vikings, Dolphins, Cowboys, Falcons, Packers.

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Home favorites that have the greater scoring margin that will either be a dog next game or their present opponent will be a favorite.

49-74 ATS

game number=4 and HF and tA(margin)>oA(margin) and (n:D or on:F)

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Away dogs with the calculated scoring disadvantage that will be either favorites or their present opponent will be an underdog their next game.

69-47 ATS

game number=4 and AD and oA(margin)-tA(margin)+3-line<0 and (n:F or on:D)

A game four favorite that lost their first two games, won their third and now are home favorites.....5-19 ATS (-4.5)

VERSUS Falcons (and Vikings if they become a home favorite)

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A home favorite that won 13 or more games the prior season that is playing a team that made the playoffs last season in the first four weeks of the season....5-24 ATS

VERSUS Packers

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A divisional away dog that lost as a home dog by less than 5 points....54-28 ATS

p:HDL and p:margin>-5 and AD and division=o:division and week<16

On Lions

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A week four home favorite who will be an underdog  their next two games....19-36 ATS

HF and n:F and nn:D and week=4

VERSUS Falcons, Bears, possibly Bills

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A week four away dog whose calculated line is greater than the Vegas line...87-66 ATS

week=4 and AD and oA(margin)-tA(margin)+3-line>0

ON Texans, Jaguars, Giants, Ravens

A week 4 away team in game number 4 off an away game....63-40 ATS.....WFT, Panthers, Colts, Cardinals, Seahawks, Ravens, Bucs

If that road team is playing a team that is also off a road game 52-30 ATS.....WFT, Colts

If our game 4, week four road team off a prior game away game is playing a team that has won less than 3 games in the present season....61-32 ATS....WFT, Panthers, Colts, Seahawks, Bucs 

Last week I played some games with bad quarterbacks or poor coaches, much like the CFL when there is a team such as the Redblacks, they'll burn a hole in your bankroll despite good situations, good prices, etc.

Those teams will especially be poor performers at home.

Indigo eliminated teams.....Bears, Jaguars, Colts, Giants at home (they're 19-6 ATS the last three years on the road), Jets

Notice those teams that did play on the road this week, the Colts, Bears and Jets, all had UNDERs this week.

The top 5 picks from the supercontest this week went 3-0 as both Vegas and Miami were in the top five which canceled each of them out.  That brings the yearly total to 5-8 ATS, pretty close to the average public picking success rate of about 42-43%. 

In the King of Covers contest, those teams that had 60% or greater consensus on them on Sunday went 4-3, so after the first two weeks of getting crushed the public made a comeback and sportsbooks might have not made a profit on this week's games.

Perhaps sportsbooks will start profiling more bettors which happened to someone I know this weekend.  Want to be treated like a terrorist?....go into a sportsbook and start winning not large amounts while the casino's one armed bandits take home millions of dollars for their greedy owners.

Play:

1)  Giants +8

They say there's no place like home, except for, among others,  the NY Giants.....they're Dr. Jeckyll at home and Mr. Hyde when packing their suitcase and getting on a plane.  Being the vagabond gypsies of the NFL has its advantages and I never met a vagabond that I didn't like.  We're on them and perhaps they'll hypnotize Mr. Winston into throwing some of his passes to the men in blue this weekend.   That shouldn't be too hard, as that is what Jameis has a proclivity to doing anyway.  The Giants beat the Seahawks and played the Rams very tough on their home fields last year and covered on the road against all of their division rivals as well. 

The Giants are one good offensive coordinator away from being a really competitive NFL team, except they'll be the last ones to realize this....what a pity for them.  I don't understand the attraction that NFL teams have for Jason Garrett, it is like that ugly duckling chick that seems to score  Elvis-type guys....what is it about them, and him anyways? 

Teams with a delta points scored of -7 points in their last two games have been 57-37 ATS as away dogs in week 4.  Because killersports now no longer displays the indicated games, we'll have to manually look for these....let me know if I missed any.

tp(dps, N=2)<-7 and AD and week=4

Steelers, Seahawks, Jaguars

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A team with a delta points allowed their last two games of >+7 as home favorites in week 4......28-43 ATS

tS(dpa, N=2)>7 and HF and week=4

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A week 4 home dog with a delta points allowed of >+7 their last two games combined has been 18-40 ATS

tS(dpa, N=2)>7 and HD and week=4

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1)  A team with a +7 or more delta points scored their last two games combined in week 4 as:

  A)  Away divisional dogs.....20-8 ATS......Raiders

  B)  Home non-div favorites 32-32 ATS....Packers, Bills

  C)  Away non-div favorites...19-24 ATS...Titans

2)  A team with a -7 or less delta points  scored their last two games combined in week four as:

  A)  Away non-div dogs...36-21 ATS....Steelers, Jaguars......divisional away dogs....23-16 ATS.....Lions   

An away dog in week four that lost their previously played road game....107-66 ATS

  A)   35-26 ATS in divisional games.......Lions, Seahawks

  B)   72-40 ATS in non-divisional games..... Jaguars, Giants, Texans, Colts, WFT

AD and week=4 and tS(W@A, N=1)=0

Here is an update on the delta points scored angle.

Teams that have scored more than 7 points than expected in their last two games that are away divisional dogs have been 29-10 ATS if the line is less than 7  in weeks 3 and 4, game numbers 3 or 4.  They have been 21-7 ATS with greater than or equal wins to their opponent.

tS(dps, N=2)>7 and AD and 2<week<5 and division=o:division and line<7 and 2<game number<5

Raiders, Cardinals

13-2 ATS if they have equal wins to their opponent and the game is on Sunday.

Cardinals

Plays:

1)  Giants +8

2)  Cardinals +6

3)  Lions +3

Appreciate all the work you do!

Agreed, the BC/Sask game was crazy.  Did not expect to hit both over and Sask to be honest. 

Just killing it this year in CFL. 

Rare Tuesday nighter tomorrow, your right about Ottawa, it's Edmonton or nothing in that game

And now the old reliable.....in week four, a dog with the stronger next week line than their present opponent as:

Home dogs 18-11 ATS, 16-10 ATS if our play ON team has the lesser average scoring margin

Play ON.....Vikings, Falcons

Away dogs 75-45 ATS, 48-19 ATS if our play ON team has the lesser average scoring margin

Texans, Seahawks

These future lines are calculated using Massey's power ratings and giving 2.5 points for home field...when the actual Vegas lookahead lines come out later in the week if there are any corrections I will make a note of them in this thread.

Adding:

4)  Vikings +2

5)  Seahawks +3, -115

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1)  Lions +3

2)  Giants +8

3)  Cardinals +6

[Quote: Originally Posted by Indigo999]Here is an update on the delta points scored angle. Teams that have scored more than 7 points than expected in their last two games that are away divisional dogs have been 29-10 ATS if the line is less than 7  in weeks 3 and 4, game numbers 3 or 4.  They have been 21-7 ATS with greater than or equal wins to their opponent. tS(dps, N=2)>7 and AD and 2<week<5 and division=o:division and line<7 and 2?

 I haven't look yet but I bet you can do dpa's on NE, HOU, Pitt, NYJ, and CHI I would think the jets would be around 20 pt's . That's if your using 7 on dps's and dpa's I use 14 pt's , could be me you know my typing LOL  

I should add that's with a p: in front of them.

Travis Harris is sitting out tomorrow

Thanks guys......

Eagles look like they are getting ready to get blown out of the stadium....Cowboys looking strong and very different than last season....their offensive coordinator I am very impressed with and their defense now looks average instead of pathetic as it was last year.

They'll win the division by 3+ games and unless something crazy happens I am losing my Eagles bet tonight.

This week has been difficult....very thankful that the contest picks went well, but all other NFL picks were abysmal.

Hopefully things get better in week 4.

Cowboys looked great, and they will be very good this year as Dak is looking like a top 5 quarterback.....they could go on a run like the Bills did last year, riding on Josh Allen's sudden improvement....interesting game coming up for them this week versus the Panthers.

I definitely am not playing the CFL game tomorrow....how many pick sixes are the quarterbacks for the Redblacks gonna throw?  Game has the makings of a snooze-fest as Ottawa had their last game versus the Tiger Cats......any total over 40 one should look to go UNDER and I never play team totals, but I would consider taking the Redblacks UNDER 16.

Adding:

6)  Falcons +1'

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5)  Vikings +2

4)  Seahawks +3, -115

3)  Cardinals +6

2)  Lions +3

1)  Giants +7'

That should be it for the NFL,.....contest play lines come out Wednesday evening and I will need to play 5 games, so one of these obviously won't make the cut, leaning towards lopping off the Lions.

Both the Vikings and the Falcons lost their first two games, won their third and now are home dogs...those teams have been 15-6 ATS (+8.1), and 13-8-1 straight up in week 4, 11-3 if their opponent has two wins (Vikings) and 2-1 if their opponent has 1 win (Falcons).

If those home dogs have an opponent of a home win (Vikings), they have been 7-1 ATS, 6-2 straight up, and if their opponent is off an away loss they have been 4-2 ATS, 3-3 straight up.

Alright, CFL lines are up.....and the Redblack game has been bet up to around 9 so it is likely some people with deep or influential pockets will be donating to their friendly neighborhood or Costa Rican bookmaker.

Mister Bookie's line on the left....the sparkling Indigo's on the right

     Bookie                       Indigo

___________               ____________

1)  +9    41   Ottawa +11    48  Edmonton

2)  +2'   52   Lions      +3    48  Winnipeg

3)  -2'    48'  Hamilton -6     44  Montreal

4) +3'    49   Calgary  +4    49  Riders

Not loving the CFL card this week and because we don't have a database in the CFL anymore, research, the lifeblood of my handicapping is negated.  I will say that home dogs start to kick in at this time in the season in the CFL.  If you are nice to Spottie he may produce the data from this summer where he researched the week and the days of the week when things start to become very good for home dogs.  To my best recollection it was after week 7.

Was prepared to take the Alouettes at anything above three, but we'll have to see if the market pushes them above that threshold,....if the line stays below three, I am not in with them.  As you would (or should anyway) know, 3 is the most important number in american/canadian football and it takes a lot to push a number over or under three from its original number.  We'll see what happens.

Well, I did NOT cash in the superbook contest 3 week mini-contest.  There are 25 contestants along with me at 12-3 ATS, and 12 that were better than that, and out of those, two went 14-1.  To be in the top 38 out of more than 1200 contestants after three weeks is an ok position to be in.

Just have to try harder....lol.

Now, if I go 12-3 the next three weeks, there is a six week mini-contest that I would be up for, PLUS there is another three week contest starting this week, so there's six three week contests in all, and 3 six week contests as well, plus the big one that counts every game.

Congrats to the Redblacks this week, and to all their loyal backers...didn't watch the game but from the looks of the boxscore they played a totally new quarterback and he threw no touchdowns to the wrong team....which is a HUGE improvement from what has been going on!

Keep putting guys out there chucking the ball around and eventually you'll find your guy.