CFL week 5

The indicators I use for possible plays are on the Edmonton/Hamilton game and the Montreal/Toronto game for week 5.  I'll update you when the line comes out....I may be playing these earlier in the week.

       Home                         Away             Totals

Blue bombers   +6        Stampeders          49 

Sasquatches  +5           Redblacks            53   

Eskimos  -10-                Hamilton              51

Toronto -7                      Als                       46

This is an interesting study, as I don't typically make my own line.  The bookies may start fading the favorites now because the smarter public is onto the trend.    

I don't make plays based on a difference between my line and the bookies' line, as some handicappers do, like Hoody from the CFL forum and BirdsOnBat in the baseball forum, who both are successful.  To do so, you have to confident that your line is more accurate than the bookmaker line, which I am not.  My view of "Value" is that going against value wins more than it loses in football as the line is where it is for a reason, often because the book is trying to entice you into playing a team because the line looks too good to pass up.  It's like going to a department store and seeing a suit for sale at 65% off,....it's on sale for a reason, which is, no one wanted it and the store is trying to get someone to buy it by making it attractive.  Works on people all the time.  That being said making your own line if it's more accurate than the bookmaker can make you A LOT of money as it did for Alan Woods in horse racing....when died his estate was worth 900 million dollars.

I always play the KOC contests in the different football categories.  The Arena game is by far the worst one!  Always has been.  I still play it because it's football and entertaining, but I don't put any real effort or money into it.  I do well at is but it's just not popular and the lines can jump 3 points in one move.  It's like options trading as you like to reference the stock market.  Super volatile.  I have been cold as heck the last 2 weeks and fell down the leaderboard so I think it's over anyways.

Your #'s were good !!   The stories are even better!!!!

I didn't get into real sports betting until I was in my mid to later 20's.  As I age and learn I am getting my s#it together.  I am one detention all but I keep it simple and it works for me.  Start doing to much and get out of the box and all hell can break loose.

Totally agree about the switch in dogs to favorites and home to road outcomes.  Over unders never.  Not in the CFL.  I play under or nothing.  Okay wait maybe one or 2 overs but the line better be pretty low. 

You are really good at this and appreciate reading your thoughts.  It's interesting more than just football talk. I have a hard time puting my thoughts on my thread.  It has always been an issue for me.  Too many head shots while I played goal for almost 15 years.  Atleast I was smart, when the pucks started zooming when I got to the junior college level it was time to hang em up!  Being 5 foot 8 and 150 pound goalie I certainly wasn't going anywhere with it.

You will find me being a hypocrite at times on and off teams in the same week.  It's just the learning process for me.  I am confident enough and good enough to make a week thread and share my thoughts but I have a ton to learn!

You speak of value and I find the CFL can be loaded with it at certain times.  I feel the value is more transparent than the NFL.

Keep your thoughts and stories coming I really enjoy your brains!

Good luck in the KOC but better luck at the window!

Went to a motivational speaking seminar and at the seminar one line stuck with me and that was, you can have an audience that listens, but what really captures attention is stories, either yours or someone elses.  People will stand at rapt attention when a story is told.  And I love hearing other people's stories about the human condition,....

as Jimmy Buffett says, "Some of it's magic, and some of it's tragic, but I've had a good life all the way."

Like the movie Tin Cup, my favorite all-time movie, you keep blasting the ball at the green over the water hazard and if there's a woman by your side, great, and if there isn't, what the heck.

From the data I have on my data base and the organizational moves and on the field play my focus is on the 2 home dogs.  It really is so beautiful to me that they play on different days.  Or early and late.  It helps me make $ adjustments if I need to.  It's what I do.

I have conflicting signs in the 'Peg/Calgary game, and I will probably only play the Bombers on the road getting 7 as of right now.  My experience with home dogs is that they don't do that well until at least half of the season is over....then regression to the mean, fatigue and injuries kick in and bad teams can start covering home games....also, indications are that divisional home dogs in the CFL do much worse than non-divisional home dogs.  I just ran a query and non-divisional home dogs are 57-33 ATS and divisional home dogs are 51-56 ATS through the history of my database....so that verifies what I had run before.

Will possibly play Sasquatches when my book's line/limits become more firm.

Fits into a couple of queries I do.....week five teams that are .500 winning percentage are 9-1 on the road in CFL (this week Hamilton and Calgary)...that's just one of the things I've looked at.  From a fundamental view which comes secondary to technical information for me, I don't like Winnipeg, either their coaching or their quarterback, plus they historically have played dumb football.  I would only play on them on the road getting a boatload of points off a loss.  Mentioned earlier in the thread that divisional home dogs are nothing special in CFL, especially early in the year.

Am I going to be right with this one? 

Being right is not as important as making the correct play.  If you make the correct play, over time the results will come in.  It's like playing the percentage hands in poker, you read books and you should know what hands are acceptable openers in a 7 or 8 handed Texas Hold 'Em game.....you're gonna lose hands when you had the mathematical advantage, but over time if one practices money management the percentage plays pay off.  It's when one has a "special feeling" that this one game is the exception and the bettor decides to not play a game that his indicators are saying he should, or he doubles a play because he feels strongly about it that causes the problems.  

I might be right or  Winnipeg might win 54-0, but this is the right percentage play in my opinion.

Winless home dogs after week 1,  are 11-2 against the spread going back the last 9 years....going 10-3 straight up....haven't played it moneyline so maybe no guts, no glory.......got some of it at 6', but for record keeping purposes I'll make it 6 flat.

Ottawa has been the best, most consistent team in the CFL this year,...maybe time for a clunker from them with turnovers, bad luck etc.

Maybe the Sasquatches will have learned how to stop someone by the time the game starts.

Mentioned earlier non-divisional home dogs are 57-33 and if our play ON team is off a loss and our opponent off a win the record is a not-terrible 17-12.

I use past history to determine my plays.  As I mentioned in the post right above yours, winless home dogs are 11-2 ATS.  That is what predicates the play.  If I absolutely hate a coach or an organization, then I get off what my database indicates is a play.

Most people make picks based on what they've seen the past week or two.  On that basis Ottawa will go 18-0 and Sask will go 0-18.  

It is why Vegas is able to build billion dollar buildings and builds beautiful sportsbooks to entice people to bet on what someone has looked like last week.  

Everyone has their own methodology,....use what works for you and make your own decisions....maybe they'll be the right one this week, this month, this year, this decade.  I'll be wrong frequently, but hopefully not more than 43% of the time.

Guys that are brilliant bettors are going to have differing opinions to what I play all the time....have a methodology in making your plays,   If you are a seer and can see what will happen in advance by observing how a team has played the past four weeks to know the outcome of their next game, then that should be your method of picking winners.  That method hasn't made money for me, but if it works for you, then go for it.

I just wanted to throw a stat at you

Sask. are 5-30 SU without Durant as starter

Not sure what the ats number is tho.

I'll try to dig it up if I can find it 

 Thanks for the head up about the Roughriders record without their starting qb.

1)  Calgary -5

2)  Sask +6

3)  Hamilton +5

So to verify, I checked on Toronto using my database.....sure enough, I found them to be 31-49 at home since 2007, 14-28 as a home favorites, and 9-18 as a home divisional favorite.  Those expecting that the new stadium might make a difference would have been disappointed as they're 0-2 ATS so far this year.

Many times when a team is playing poorly, they snap out of it on the road against a divisional rival....the team gets an "us against the world" mentality and puts forth a mammoth effort.  While I don't know if Montreal will play well this week, I expect them to play VERY hard.

I played some UNDERS in the contest, but I didn't like them enough to put cold hard cash on them.

You can check the contest page to see those picks if you're interested...they were all chosen by using a database and entering certain parameters, I don't believe in making picks based on what I saw watching the previous weeks' games, and in actuality, I believe my prognostication skills would have been better over the years if I had NOT watched any games.

An example of this is in MLB.  If one did nothing but went AGAINST teams with a >=600 winning percentage who were favorites in conference play you would have done very well.  Add to that if they were off a win and your ROI would have been greater than 6.7%, and the return jumps again to 7.7% if the opponent they are playing had a worse record.

The thing is....it's hard to go against a team that is doing very well....the Cubs this year are an example.  A team that had won 60% of their games  going into the present game only won 55% of the time in that scenario with an average line of -158 (or an opponent's line of +143). Some of you who can do the math can figure out how profitable that has been.   In essence to be profitable in this situation, one has to be content with winning only 45% of the time.....how many of us are comfortable with that?   One of my weaknesses as a bettor is failing to play the moneyline when I'm taking an underdog in football/basketball....in the games I'm picking I've always calculated that the return on betting the moneyline is much greater than picking against the spread.  That, and line shopping are definitely things I should be doing more effectively.  

If you can find a system in football that picks underdogs that win straight up 43% of the time, you would be a winner against the spread 60% of time.  Easier psychologically to win smaller amounts 60% of the time, than exponentially more only 43% of the time, but far less profitable.

When we check that situation this year of going against the Cubs when their winning percentage was >=.600,  off a win,  in conference play against a team with a worse winning percentage, they have been 29-18 but you would have a return on investment of 6.4% by going against them in this situation.  This scenario has won 10 straight years, until  a slight loss last year and it has been a small winner this year so far....perhaps the books have caught on to this.

Good luck in your plays, it definitely helps to be lucky AND good.

Let's not do # 2 

Oh yes and lucky as hell too