Toronto's lack of a big-time quarterback is gonna hurt them in the playoffs....they've got the coach, but they hopefully get into the quarterback market this off-season. Their defense has slipped lately, which with the addition of Chris Jones is a surprise,...perhaps too many cooks spoil the broth.
Montreal/Winnipeg was an excellent game. Winnipeg actually had to work to win a game.
Still, I think back to a few years ago when Calgary was dominating the league and they got beat in a couple of Grey Cups by vastly inferior Ottawa and Toronto teams.....so dominating regular seasons doesn't mean you skate through the playoffs.
I'm picking the Alouettes to get through the East.
1) Toronto -1 Hamilton 44
Hamilton has been chasing the Argos the whole season...Hamilton plays the most boring football in the history of the CFL...I find ways of doing other things when their game is on.
2) BC +3 Calgary 47
Evidently the Lions have just been too young this season...it'd be nice if they could find a kicker that would get me the money when I've picked them to cover.
3) Montreal +4 Winnipeg 46
Perhaps the Bombers will sleep walk through their last two games. Regression is well and truly happening now in the CFL as dormats Redblacks and Elks covered this weekend, so maybe the Bombers lose a game to give themselves a reason to think they aren't invincible.
4) Saskatchewan -7 Edmonton 44
I still hate everything about the Elks, but give them credit, they beat me this weekend. If their management and fans think that their coaching staff and their quarterback can win in the CFL next year, they are deluding themselves.
Riders cannot score.....play Fajardo to run in all crucial situations and you have beaten them.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
And, down the stretch we go.
Toronto's lack of a big-time quarterback is gonna hurt them in the playoffs....they've got the coach, but they hopefully get into the quarterback market this off-season. Their defense has slipped lately, which with the addition of Chris Jones is a surprise,...perhaps too many cooks spoil the broth.
Montreal/Winnipeg was an excellent game. Winnipeg actually had to work to win a game.
Still, I think back to a few years ago when Calgary was dominating the league and they got beat in a couple of Grey Cups by vastly inferior Ottawa and Toronto teams.....so dominating regular seasons doesn't mean you skate through the playoffs.
I'm picking the Alouettes to get through the East.
1) Toronto -1 Hamilton 44
Hamilton has been chasing the Argos the whole season...Hamilton plays the most boring football in the history of the CFL...I find ways of doing other things when their game is on.
2) BC +3 Calgary 47
Evidently the Lions have just been too young this season...it'd be nice if they could find a kicker that would get me the money when I've picked them to cover.
3) Montreal +4 Winnipeg 46
Perhaps the Bombers will sleep walk through their last two games. Regression is well and truly happening now in the CFL as dormats Redblacks and Elks covered this weekend, so maybe the Bombers lose a game to give themselves a reason to think they aren't invincible.
4) Saskatchewan -7 Edmonton 44
I still hate everything about the Elks, but give them credit, they beat me this weekend. If their management and fans think that their coaching staff and their quarterback can win in the CFL next year, they are deluding themselves.
Riders cannot score.....play Fajardo to run in all crucial situations and you have beaten them.
An away favorite in week 10 that has lost their last two road games....12-18 ATS....VERSUS Bills
An away dog in week 10 that has lost their last two road games......75-60 ATS.....Lions (and technically the Jags have lost their last two also, but they did win in their overseas game, which was considered a home game).
A week 10 home favorite with the better yards per pass attempt defense....71-92 ATS....VERSUS Broncos, Packers, Chargers, Steelers, Titans, Colts
A week 10 home favorite with the better yards per pass attempt margin....33-47 ATS....VERSUS Colts, Cowboys, Titans, Steelers, Chargers, Cardinals, Broncos
A week 10 favorite with the better scoring margin that will either be a dog their next game or their present opponent will be a favorite....87-126 ATS, (-2.7), 40.8%.....VERSUS Colts, Patriots, Cowboys, Cardinals, Rams
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An away favorite in week 10 that has lost their last two road games....12-18 ATS....VERSUS Bills
An away dog in week 10 that has lost their last two road games......75-60 ATS.....Lions (and technically the Jags have lost their last two also, but they did win in their overseas game, which was considered a home game).
A week 10 home favorite with the better yards per pass attempt defense....71-92 ATS....VERSUS Broncos, Packers, Chargers, Steelers, Titans, Colts
A week 10 home favorite with the better yards per pass attempt margin....33-47 ATS....VERSUS Colts, Cowboys, Titans, Steelers, Chargers, Cardinals, Broncos
A week 10 favorite with the better scoring margin that will either be a dog their next game or their present opponent will be a favorite....87-126 ATS, (-2.7), 40.8%.....VERSUS Colts, Patriots, Cowboys, Cardinals, Rams
A week 10 away non-divisional dog with the lesser per game scoring margin than their present opponent that had the less strong line their previous game than their present opponent.
AD and month=11 and day=Sunday and p:line>op:line and division!=o:division and week=10 and tA(margin)<oA(margin)
36-20 ATS
ON Browns, Falcons, Lions, Vikings, Panthers
This was 19-6 ATS if the difference between last week's lines was between 0 to 7 points......Browns
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A week 10 away non-divisional dog with the lesser per game scoring margin than their present opponent that had the less strong line their previous game than their present opponent.
AD and month=11 and day=Sunday and p:line>op:line and division!=o:division and week=10 and tA(margin)<oA(margin)
36-20 ATS
ON Browns, Falcons, Lions, Vikings, Panthers
This was 19-6 ATS if the difference between last week's lines was between 0 to 7 points......Browns
In November away dogs that outrush attempt their opponents cover 82% of the time.
If they out-gain their opponents on the ground they cover approximately 75% of the time.
The Chargers have the worst rush defense in the league, I am putting money on the idea that they will be out-rushed and out-rush attempted in their game versus the Vikings.
Adding:
4) Vikings +120
_____________________________________________
3) Panthers +10
2) Seahawks +4
1) Browns +2'
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In November away dogs that outrush attempt their opponents cover 82% of the time.
If they out-gain their opponents on the ground they cover approximately 75% of the time.
The Chargers have the worst rush defense in the league, I am putting money on the idea that they will be out-rushed and out-rush attempted in their game versus the Vikings.
5) Detroit Lions +9....yeah, they are terrible, but so was/are the Jaguars who beat the highest rated team in the comp last week. Of course if you lose with a terrible team, you will feel terrible as a result, probably more so than taking a team that has performed well previously. Just keep in mind that 96% of bettors will lose, so winning is difficult...what would most bettors not be willing to do?....that is taking terrible teams even in auspicious situations.
_______________________
4) Seahawks +4
3) Vikings +120
2) Browns +2'
1) Panthers +10
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Adding:
5) Detroit Lions +9....yeah, they are terrible, but so was/are the Jaguars who beat the highest rated team in the comp last week. Of course if you lose with a terrible team, you will feel terrible as a result, probably more so than taking a team that has performed well previously. Just keep in mind that 96% of bettors will lose, so winning is difficult...what would most bettors not be willing to do?....that is taking terrible teams even in auspicious situations.
NFL plays 36-24 ATS, superbook contest plays 27-19-1 ATS....need to win at least 58 out of 90 plays to have a chance in the contest, which means I'll have to hit around 31 out my next 45 picks.
CFL 39-26 ATS.
Due to the vast influence of Indigo, the line has moved in the Lions game from +9 to +8.5 shortly after I released my pick....
Sam Darnold likely out for several weeks, which instead of sending the line upward, has actually tilted it downward towards the Panthers which shows what the market thinks of him......his time as a starting NFL quarterback are over and he'll be out of the league within two years.
I might take the Raiders if the line moves to +3 in their game versus the Chiefs.
Plays:
1) Detroit Lions +9
2) Seahawks +4
3) Vikings +120
4) Browns +2'
5) Panthers +10
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NFL plays 36-24 ATS, superbook contest plays 27-19-1 ATS....need to win at least 58 out of 90 plays to have a chance in the contest, which means I'll have to hit around 31 out my next 45 picks.
CFL 39-26 ATS.
Due to the vast influence of Indigo, the line has moved in the Lions game from +9 to +8.5 shortly after I released my pick....
Sam Darnold likely out for several weeks, which instead of sending the line upward, has actually tilted it downward towards the Panthers which shows what the market thinks of him......his time as a starting NFL quarterback are over and he'll be out of the league within two years.
I might take the Raiders if the line moves to +3 in their game versus the Chiefs.
Revisiting the divisional home dogs......the Raiders and 49ers.
Home divisional dogs that will be a favorite their next game have been 136-100 ATS....if they will be away favorites this moves to 58-39 ATS.....49ers
A divisional home dog that will be a home dog their next game have only been 70-85 ATS.....Raiders.
A divisional home dog that will have the stronger line than the present opponent will next week has been 95-49 ATS....the 49ers will be five point favorites at Jacksonville their next game while the Rams will be a slight away dog in two weeks at the Packers.
HD and n:line<on:line and division=o:division and n:playoffs=0
A divisional home dog whose next week line will be weaker than their present opponent's next week line has been 378-439 ATS......Raiders
HD and n:line>on:line and division=o:division and n:playoffs=0
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Revisiting the divisional home dogs......the Raiders and 49ers.
Home divisional dogs that will be a favorite their next game have been 136-100 ATS....if they will be away favorites this moves to 58-39 ATS.....49ers
A divisional home dog that will be a home dog their next game have only been 70-85 ATS.....Raiders.
A divisional home dog that will have the stronger line than the present opponent will next week has been 95-49 ATS....the 49ers will be five point favorites at Jacksonville their next game while the Rams will be a slight away dog in two weeks at the Packers.
HD and n:line<on:line and division=o:division and n:playoffs=0
A divisional home dog whose next week line will be weaker than their present opponent's next week line has been 378-439 ATS......Raiders
HD and n:line>on:line and division=o:division and n:playoffs=0
Dr. Bob, the illustrious narcissist handicapper who like the NBA player that never thinks he once has fouled his opponent, thinks that he was cheated in every losing pick he's ever made, did write a useful article once on "must-win" games.
He stated in his research that teams in the last couple of games of an NFL season that have to win to clinch a playoff birth or a better seeding cover at about a 31% rate. There's such a thing as trying too hard in sports and often this takes place against a long ago eliminated team.
This week we have Saskatchewan trying to clinch a top two position in the West playing the lowly Elks. The Elks could give them a game.
It also wouldn't surprise me if the Bombers lost one of their next two games.
Strong lean to the Alouettes.
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Dr. Bob, the illustrious narcissist handicapper who like the NBA player that never thinks he once has fouled his opponent, thinks that he was cheated in every losing pick he's ever made, did write a useful article once on "must-win" games.
He stated in his research that teams in the last couple of games of an NFL season that have to win to clinch a playoff birth or a better seeding cover at about a 31% rate. There's such a thing as trying too hard in sports and often this takes place against a long ago eliminated team.
This week we have Saskatchewan trying to clinch a top two position in the West playing the lowly Elks. The Elks could give them a game.
It also wouldn't surprise me if the Bombers lost one of their next two games.
I am personally playing the Vikings on the moneyline and also taking the Jaguars +10'....also considering the WFT, but will wait until Sunday.
A Sunday November away dog of greater than 7 points off a game where they were a home dog has been 86-57 ATS (+2), 60.1%.......ON Lions, Jaguars, Panthers
If our away dog scored less than 14 points in their previous game as a home dog this moves to 37-18 ATS.................ON Lions, Jags, Panthers
AD and p:HD and month=11 and day=Sunday and line>7 and p:points<14
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NFL contest picks.....27-17-1 ATS.
1) Lions +8'
2) Browns +1'
3) Vikings +3
4) Seahawks +3'
5) Panthers +10
I am personally playing the Vikings on the moneyline and also taking the Jaguars +10'....also considering the WFT, but will wait until Sunday.
A Sunday November away dog of greater than 7 points off a game where they were a home dog has been 86-57 ATS (+2), 60.1%.......ON Lions, Jaguars, Panthers
If our away dog scored less than 14 points in their previous game as a home dog this moves to 37-18 ATS.................ON Lions, Jags, Panthers
AD and p:HD and month=11 and day=Sunday and line>7 and p:points<14
Sometimes a season trend is only that....a one-hit wonder.
This season as I mentioned earlier in the NFL, teams with a total their previous game of greater than 45 have been 30-15 ATS their next game as away dogs.
Teams that fit that profile this week are: Jaguars (total was 48 last game), Vikings (51), Browns (47.5)
If their last week total was greater than their this week's opponent's last week total this moves to 22-6 ATS for the 2021 season. Example....Jags' total was 48.5 and the Colts' total was 45 their previous games....Jags, Vikes, Browns.
In 2021 teams that had a total of 45 or greater their previous game and now are home favorites have been 27-32 ATS, and if that last game total was less than their present opponent's last game total....this moves to 3-14 ATS.....VERSUS Chargers, Colts.
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Sometimes a season trend is only that....a one-hit wonder.
This season as I mentioned earlier in the NFL, teams with a total their previous game of greater than 45 have been 30-15 ATS their next game as away dogs.
Teams that fit that profile this week are: Jaguars (total was 48 last game), Vikings (51), Browns (47.5)
If their last week total was greater than their this week's opponent's last week total this moves to 22-6 ATS for the 2021 season. Example....Jags' total was 48.5 and the Colts' total was 45 their previous games....Jags, Vikes, Browns.
In 2021 teams that had a total of 45 or greater their previous game and now are home favorites have been 27-32 ATS, and if that last game total was less than their present opponent's last game total....this moves to 3-14 ATS.....VERSUS Chargers, Colts.
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