CFL playoffs

Calgary delayed the inevitable 'til the last minute, but of course they ended the season being the number 1 seed.

Indigo lines for round 1 assuming that both Lulay and Masoli are starting quarterbacks for BC and Hamilton.

Hamilton         -3      British Columbia   51

Saskatchewan -4'      Winnipeg  50

Home divisional favorites that won more games than their  opponent during the regular season (Roughriders) in round 1 of the playoffs have been...

7-12-2 ATS (-1.48), 8-13 O/U (-.93) and 15-6 straight up (+4.43).....

average/total has been -5.9/52.3 and the average score has been 27.9-23.5

playoffs=1 and t:wins>o:wins and game number=19  and division=o:division

When there's been a crossover game in the first round the home team has been 6-4 ATS, 5-3 if they're the favorite, and 5-3 O/U and those teams that were home favorites that won less games during the regular season than their round 1 opponent (Tiger Cats) have been 1-2 ATS and 0-3 O/U

Teams with the lesser average scoring margin (Lions, Roughriders) have been 34-17 ATS in the CFL playoffs, including 18-7 ATS (+3.12) in round 1.

Average margins for this week's playoff teams.

Hamilton +3.17

BC           -2.78

Saskatchewan +.33

Winnipeg        +7.27

As with the NFL, we look to fade the superior regular season team in the playoffs.

playoffs=1 and game number>18  and tA(margin)<oA(margin)  and game number

Early lean to the Lions if they are greater than 3 point away underdogs and Lulay starts.

Here's another very interesting concept.

Teams that won less games LAST YEAR than their week 1 opponent in the playoffs (Roughriders, Tiger Cats) have been.....

17-5-4 ATS (+4.13),                      8-3-2 ATS as home favorites (+4.04)

playoffs=1 and game number=19 and PRSW<o:PRSW and HF

This is only 10-9 ATS in rounds 2 and 3 of the playoffs

If they won less than 11 games last year and won less games than round one opponent and are at home , this moves to 8-2-3 ATS overall and 6-2-3 ATS in round 1

playoffs=1 and game number>=19 and PRSW<o:PRSW and and PRSW<11 and game number

Conference home teams (Roughriders) have been 4-1-2 ATS and 7-0 straight up in the above scenario, and non-divisional home teams (Tiger Cats) have been 4-1-1  ATS and 4-2 straight up.

If we combine two concepts for the above paragraphs,....a team with less wins from last year with the inferior average margin for the season (Roughriders), we get this round by round

game number 19       8-2-1 ATS  (+6.82)  9-2 straight up (+9.18)

game number 20     2-0  ATS     (+12.75)  2-0 straight up (+4.50)

game number 21     1-0 ATS     (+14.50)   1-0 straight up (+13.00)

More than likely the Roughriders will be a play over the Blue Bombers and should be the Grey Cup favorites when it is all said and done.

Lines are out, much different than what I have....my lines in brackets.

Tiger Cats +2'    (-3)      Lions   52  (51)

Riders     -2'      (-4')     Bombers 52 (50)

From the looks of what I use for lines, the Tiger Cats opened -2 and they are now a home underdog, so the line has moved 4 points....means someone with deep pockets has a big-time opinion on the Lions and Wally, or alternatively they hate the Tiger Cats.

Teams that are on at least a two game losing streak going into the first round of the playoffs at home (Tiger Cats) have been 3-3-2 ATS and 5-3 straight up.

Home first round dogs have been 1-2 ATS and 1-2 straight up.

Home non-divisional teams with less wins than their opponent have been 2-2-1 ATS and 2-3 straight up.

Teams with the yards per pass attempt advantage have been 5-2-1 ATS, 6-2 straight up on the road first round (Bombers) and 9-13-3 ATS and 18-7 straight up at home (Tiger Cats).  Those teams with the advantage in the passing game AND that are underdogs have been 5-2 ATS and 5-2 straight up (Riders, Tiger Cats). 

Last paragraph, last sentence of last thread should be (Tiger Cats and Bombers), NOT (Tiger Cats and Riders)

Teams that have won less than 3 out of their last 6 games and are at home (Tiger Cats) have been 3-1-1 against the spread,  4-1 straight up in round 1. (Tiger Cats)

Play:

1)  Tiger Cats +2'

Going against the money move which would not be the first time.   Basically what this line is saying is that the Lions are 5.5 points better on a neutral field.....no sir, not for me they aren't.

The line in the Bombers/Sasquatch game continues to climb....if it goes to 3.5 I'll take the Bombers.  While in the past away dogs have done well against the spread in the CFL playoffs, the home team still wins the majority of the time.   If the game comes back to a line of -2.5 I'll take the Roughriders.

So, basically the strategy is that I am taking the line, NOT the team in the playoffs.

I got Hamilton at -1 bet 200 on that, lost faith in Lulay also have a feeling Winnipeg wins but have to think about it

Sorry I changed my bet to BC 1 Terrel might be the difference

i have both dogs and am waiting on a better lines (games) next week.  

Ticats +

if the Bombers line adjusts to them as favorites i will jump ship on them and take the better D home green riders.

I am adding the Roughriders.

Games in the playoffs in the CFL have tended to be close but the home team still has a record of 39-22 straight up, and 15-7 straight up and if the line is less than -4 and 10-3 straight up if their record last year was than than their round 1 opponent's record was.

Plays:

1)  Roughriders -1

2)  Tiger Cats +2'

Tiger Cats were +2' either Monday or Tuesday, I don't recall, before almost immediately becoming a point favorite.

1)  Tiger Cats +2' winner

Will be about a 3 point away dog to the Redblacks next week.

Bridge evidently will be the quarterback for the Sasquatches...I'm fine with him, actually I like him better than Zach.

Bombers much the superior team over the Roughriders.  Bridge missed three open receivers that would have been TDs, but the Bombers dominated the game.

Week 1-1 ATS.

Indigo lines for next week.....

Redblacks -3    Tiger Cats  53

Stampeders -3  Blue Bombers 49

In the CFL playoffs, favorites with the average margin of victory greater than their opponents (if the Stampeders are favorites versus the Bombers) have been 12-25-4 ATS (-1.95) but 27-14 straight up (+3.98).

points differential in 2018 games

Bombers +8.24

Stampeders +8.35

The team with the lesser margin as favorites (if the Redblacks are favored versus the Tiger Cats) have been 9-4 ATS (+3.23) and 10-3 straight up (+6.46)

Tiger Cats +3.47

Redblacks +1.71

I like both road dogs this week, but I can't any data to support a Tiger Cat play, so it looks unlikely that I'll be on them.

The Bombers looked very good last week and now will have to slay the beast if they're going to win the Grey Cup.  All of the data is saying that teams with their profile playing a superior foe have performed well against the spread in the past. 

Will this hold form this weekend?

That is why they call it gambling.

Plays:  

1)  Bombers +5'

2)  Bombers/Stampeders UNDER 53

So that you are warned, with the database goes back 11 years........teams that won their first round playoff game on the road, and now are again round underdogs (Blue Bombers) have been 0-5-1 ATS (-11.75) and 0-6 straight up (-17.17).

I am cancelling both plays, the first on Winnipeg +5' and the second on Winnipeg UNDER 53...my sportsbook has a cancellation option if  the line hasn't moved against me.

There is just two much historical data that favors both home favorites,....however as I stated previously I like both away dogs.  Usually when this happens, I pass on the games.

So, no plays for this weekend for me....may make a play on the Grey Cup, we'll see.