Posted:
#1
| 10/17/2009 12:00 PM | Odds to win the Super 6 Tournament |
| 5001 | Mikkel Kessler |
| 5002 | Arthur Abraham | +250 |
| 5003 | Carl Froch | +500 |
| 5004 | Andre Ward | +450 |
| 5005 | Jermain Taylor | +775 |
| 5006 | Andre Dirrell | +900 |
Super 6 Odds
Posted:
#3
Andre Ward gives the most value, granted he is facing Kessler, but here is my break down of some of the fighters.
Andre Ward- Most over-all talented fighter
Jermain Taylor- Most Gifted "Athlete"
Kessler- Hardest puncher
Froch- Biggest aggressor
Now Abraham I don't see as any value, he is not a 168 fighter. Personally I can see Jermaine Taylor beating him and is a big live dog.
Abraham has a good chin, he isn't great at anything but he isn't bad at anything either. Cannot Gauge his power as one needs to see how it carries over to the 168 division.
Dirrell is the toughest to gauage, he clearly has skill, but sometimes doesn't go after people, his work is cut out for him as Froch will be in his face all night, will love to see how each guy handles it.
Froch showed lots of vulnerability against Taylor who was just abusing him for many rounds, again Taylor is the best overall athlete in this tourney, big difference between "Athlete" and winner.
I think Ward is the best value at +525, no way should Arthur Abraham only be +250 he is the only NON true 168 fighter there.
He should be +525 and Ward should be where Abraham is.
Andre Ward- Most over-all talented fighter
Jermain Taylor- Most Gifted "Athlete"
Kessler- Hardest puncher
Froch- Biggest aggressor
Now Abraham I don't see as any value, he is not a 168 fighter. Personally I can see Jermaine Taylor beating him and is a big live dog.
Abraham has a good chin, he isn't great at anything but he isn't bad at anything either. Cannot Gauge his power as one needs to see how it carries over to the 168 division.
Dirrell is the toughest to gauage, he clearly has skill, but sometimes doesn't go after people, his work is cut out for him as Froch will be in his face all night, will love to see how each guy handles it.
Froch showed lots of vulnerability against Taylor who was just abusing him for many rounds, again Taylor is the best overall athlete in this tourney, big difference between "Athlete" and winner.
I think Ward is the best value at +525, no way should Arthur Abraham only be +250 he is the only NON true 168 fighter there.
He should be +525 and Ward should be where Abraham is.
Posted:
#5
Very good value with Froch as I see it. He is the most proven in this tournament. He has beaten the best comp. (not faced, that would be Kessler or Taylor, but beaten) He's also the hardest hitter. Seeing as though you get 3 points for KOs he will rack up the most points.
As far as the first matchups go:
Froch beats Dirrell by KO. Dirrell starts boxing effectively early but succombs to pressure and power late. I dont think Dirrel has enough of a chin to hold on.
Kessler/Ward toss up. only because Kessler looked a little off in his tune up bout. I think the layoff will affect him. After his Calzaghe bout hasn't really fought anyone noteworthy.
and JT simply outboxes AA
As far as the first matchups go:
Froch beats Dirrell by KO. Dirrell starts boxing effectively early but succombs to pressure and power late. I dont think Dirrel has enough of a chin to hold on.
Kessler/Ward toss up. only because Kessler looked a little off in his tune up bout. I think the layoff will affect him. After his Calzaghe bout hasn't really fought anyone noteworthy.
and JT simply outboxes AA
Posted:
#6
Excellent Post I didn't even read the point setup, I guess basing on that system they would place Kessler as the favorite.
Kessler seems VERY hittable to me, and I agree since the Calzaghe fight he hasn't really faced no one and that will hurt him as you need some rounds against some competition.
Froch and Dirrel show two sides two them, the Froch that fought Pascal and look good and the Froch that fought Taylor and didn't look so good, but he showed heart.
Dirrell has never really shown he can step up in a major fight and going over seas, won't help him.
Froch has more power than Dirrell but Dirrell has better boxing skills, question is the CHIN, how can Dirrell take the intense pressure of Froch.
I like Ward because I believe he has exactly what it takes to beat Kessler. He's young super talented and has NO flaws.
Kessler does have tons of power, but even in his last fight as a tune up, a BUM was hitting him on a regular basis until he knocked the guy out who lets be realistic was there to be knocked out.
I agree Taylor wins this one. Arthur Abraham is exactly what Jermaine Taylor needs, he is the smaller fighter, he has decent hand speed, but not terribly fast, and isn't super aggressive, like Froch or Pavlik. He also doesn't HIT like Froch or Pavlik.
There's a big difference between moving forward like Abraham does, and "Pressure" like Froch/Pavlik puts on".
Personally don't see how Abraham made it into this Tourney he isn't even a 168 fighter.
People under estimate the power of Taylor, he dropped Pavlik and Froch no one else has done that.
The way I see the winners.,. this round.
Froch
Ward
Taylor
Think about it.. the most aggressive fighter (Froch), the overall best boxer (Ward) and the overall best athlete* (Taylor).
Great time for us boxers!
The lines are very good too, the Abraham line seems way too inflated, hope Jermaine doesn't get robbed.
Other than Taylor/Abraham line everything seems Kosher!
Kessler seems VERY hittable to me, and I agree since the Calzaghe fight he hasn't really faced no one and that will hurt him as you need some rounds against some competition.
Froch and Dirrel show two sides two them, the Froch that fought Pascal and look good and the Froch that fought Taylor and didn't look so good, but he showed heart.
Dirrell has never really shown he can step up in a major fight and going over seas, won't help him.
Froch has more power than Dirrell but Dirrell has better boxing skills, question is the CHIN, how can Dirrell take the intense pressure of Froch.
I like Ward because I believe he has exactly what it takes to beat Kessler. He's young super talented and has NO flaws.
Kessler does have tons of power, but even in his last fight as a tune up, a BUM was hitting him on a regular basis until he knocked the guy out who lets be realistic was there to be knocked out.
I agree Taylor wins this one. Arthur Abraham is exactly what Jermaine Taylor needs, he is the smaller fighter, he has decent hand speed, but not terribly fast, and isn't super aggressive, like Froch or Pavlik. He also doesn't HIT like Froch or Pavlik.
There's a big difference between moving forward like Abraham does, and "Pressure" like Froch/Pavlik puts on".
Personally don't see how Abraham made it into this Tourney he isn't even a 168 fighter.
People under estimate the power of Taylor, he dropped Pavlik and Froch no one else has done that.
The way I see the winners.,. this round.
Froch
Ward
Taylor
Think about it.. the most aggressive fighter (Froch), the overall best boxer (Ward) and the overall best athlete* (Taylor).
Great time for us boxers!
The lines are very good too, the Abraham line seems way too inflated, hope Jermaine doesn't get robbed.
Other than Taylor/Abraham line everything seems Kosher!
Posted:
#8
Wow me and Rich fully agreeing, trouble! lol. My two picks for the super 6 are Authur Abraham and Andre Ward. I think we will could even see a fighter lose in the round and in it all (watch this space. I will have another bet on Ward and/or AA if they lose in the first round for extra value). This is a great Tourney and my predictions might like very silly in 18 months. My break down is as follows..
1) Mikkel Kessler: If this were 4 years ago I would love the Dane in this tournament but times have changed. Kessler lack of activity and poor opposition I think catches him out here..I think he makes the semis or even the final but I honestly don't think he will win this..I think a quick, fast fighter will expose his flaws (eventually).
2) Carl Froch: He is a tough cookie but he does not have the boxing skills to win this. When he losses, he will be a goner as he losses the aura of an undefeated fighter and pyschology he will not recover. Its just a matter of when he losses. Probably against Kessler in the 2nd fight..I don't think he makes the semi's.
3) AA: This guy will either excel in this tournament or will find the 8 pound weight jump too much. I think he would have beaten Pavlik if that fight took place. He will have 2 fights in Germany and he will win them both meaning he will be in the semis. I think this guy is the real deal and I expect him to go far..
4) JT: Lost 3 of his last 5 fights. I just can't see him going far in this but a win against AA changes EVERYTHING. I think AA takes him late or on points. Alot of people smell upset here. I don't. Think AA has too much for a shot Taylor. 5 years ago I like JT, but when your shot your shot.
5) Andre Ward. I already have a big bet on him at +1000 (as available on paddypower.com and I posted the bet on this forum when I made it (to any doubters like that jacka$$ cee money). +1000 (10/1) as just too big to turn down. Especially since if Ward losses his first match he gets JT and Dirrell. I like him in both fights. If he gets the to the semi he will have been brought on a ton and I love this guy. Hes young, quick, a great athelete. He ticks all the boxes for me.
6) Andre Dirrell. The one fighter I really don't know how he will do. I don't see him beating Froch or Ward. But in truth he has the tools to be very dangerous in this. If he beats Froch then everything changes. Big ask to go to England and beat a seasoned fighter in their backyard on his first big test. Have a hunch Froch here wins a debatable decision..Hard for Dirrell to come back from this...
Think it will be Ward, AA and Kessler in the semi's. No idea who will join that trio..
Posted:
#9
whoops we disgree on JT and AA Rich. Should be fascinating. Alot of people agree with you Rich, but you really want to bet on a shot fighter going to Germany of all places and beat a hard as nails undefeated fighter? Rich buddy I think there are aLOT more questions about JT then AA. JT won't knock out AA and can you see JT getting a decision in Germany??AA is a far more skilled figher then Froch and I think you will be surprised how good he is. The leap of 8 pounds is a concern but this guy has been struggling to make middleweight for awhile now.
5 years ago if this fight were in the States it would be a 12 round masscare for JT(AA loses bad). I'm sure we will see glimpses of JT early roads and he will rounds because he is a gifted boxer and thats the last thing to go. But this guy fatigues so bad and it will even be worse in a intimdating atmosphere against a guy that will not take a backwards step all night and will put him under more pressure then Froch did.
Posted:
#12
This is gonna sound crazy, but I think that even though Taylor is losing more often, he is actually progressing as a fighter. His counter-punching has improved and he's throwing hard left hooks to the body. I disagree with him being shot (implies that his reflexes have slowed), but I do think his ability to take a punch MIGHT be compromised. I think Taylor will be ahead on the scorecards after 6, but Abraham will eventually figure him out and win the fight.
Posted:
#13
Quote Originally Posted by Mack05:
whoops we disgree on JT and AA Rich. Should be fascinating. Alot of people agree with you Rich, but you really want to bet on a shot fighter going to Germany of all places and beat a hard as nails undefeated fighter? Rich buddy I think there are aLOT more questions about JT then AA. JT won't knock out AA and can you see JT getting a decision in Germany??AA is a far more skilled figher then Froch and I think you will be surprised how good he is. The leap of 8 pounds is a concern but this guy has been struggling to make middleweight for awhile now.
5 years ago if this fight were in the States it would be a 12 round masscare for JT(AA loses bad). I'm sure we will see glimpses of JT early roads and he will rounds because he is a gifted boxer and thats the last thing to go. But this guy fatigues so bad and it will even be worse in a intimdating atmosphere against a guy that will not take a backwards step all night and will put him under more pressure then Froch did.
I agree it's a touch call, Abraham/Taylor. I know the consequences it's why the odds are so high. Yes Jermaine has many ways to lose, Fatigue, and robbery on the score card.
I do agree that Abraham couldn't make weight, but it doesn't mean he is a natural 168.
I think he is being forced into this. I think this is the best match up for Jermaine as he is better in almost every category than Abraham, except the one aspect which is toughness.. we know Abraham finished with a broken jaw.
Overall Jermaine has the best chance against Abraham to regain his confidence, Abraham's style suits Taylor well.
We both agree on Ward, but we also agree ward could lose to Kessler, I think he beats Kessler, and depending on how this plays out after Kessler he would be the favorite in my eyes.
So yes Ward could be gone in the first but like you I still pick ward, he is the most complete boxer in this tourney!
I also agree on Froch, right now he's fighting as an undefeated fighter once his intimidation goes, so does he. His defense is lack luster, and once he tanks once, he's done.
I just cannot pinpoint Dirrell part of me really likes him, he doesn't have any serious flaws, I don't know how far he can go in this Tourney and for us that's a great thing.
So for Dano Danger taking Dirrell that is a safe bet too .. that's how competitive this Tourney is!
We've been forced by the hand with crap fights the past few months, where we know the outcome, but had to PROP ourselves to death to deal with the odds.
This Tourney provides fair odds, no props needed, and basically anyone can be a the winner here. First time in years the winner is the fans!
I also agree with the one poster, Jermaine isn't shot, when a boxer is shot, first thing to go is his reflexes. Jermaine if anything has a mental ISSUE rather than being shot.
That makes him a big dog, and worth some value at least in the first round. I know he can get robbed with the judges. I feel Jermaine either wins easily, or folds. Him being a dog makes the bet easier he's supposed to lose. :)
I'm interested in Dirrell/Froch for the most part, as I know the rest of the boxers pretty well, just need to figure out Dirrell.. will he shine like he's capable of or wilt under pressure, because once he gets past the first round .. (all of these men) confidence will be soaring.
Personally I see Abraham as the WORST value in the whole Tourney and Ward as the BEST value, oddly as I said before, Ward has his toughest test in the first round. I believe he takes Kessler to school :)
Cannot wait!
Posted:
#14
Rich we REALLY disagree on AA. I think he is ALOT better then you give him credit for. Plus Germany has to be one of theee most intimadating places to fight. A fighter can be shot in different ways. What I mean by shot here is that Taylor is mentally shot. He doesnt truly believe in himself anymore. And come the championship rounds it will be here we go again. Taylor getting gased is not a physical problem. The guy is a great athelete. Its all mental and thats why if and I believe when Jermaine loses this fight he will lose the next 2.
Posted:
#15
Earlier I said that I'd take Dirrell at 9-1, but let me just say that I actually wouldn't take anyone. I think you'd be nuts to put money on this. Betting the fights individually is what I'll be doing, but to place a wager that won't be settled until 2011 is not something I'm interested in. Also, I'd be surprised if this went off as scheduled. There are plans in place to substitute fighters if anyone should back out. Suppose JT gets brutally KO'd by AA, I could see him calling it a day (in which case, they have Green on call to step in). I barely like betting season-long wagers, so I definitely don't want my money tied up for two years.
Posted:
#16
It should tell you something that Abraham, a guy who has never fought at the weight, has not been seen much on American TV, and who can be very frustrating to watch, has been installed as the 2nd favorite everywhere. I'm not a fan of waiting more than a year for futures to settle, but I'll be backing Abraham in the first fight. Taylor is a 4 round fighter now, and as a washed up 160 lb champ, really is in this field for name recognition only. I'll be happy for his believers to get value as he boxes beautifully with Abraham covering up for the first 3 rounds (not that that will win rounds on the Germany score cards), but how can you not expect him to tire in the middle rounds and be stopped late? All of the opening match-ups were made to be attractive stylistically. Taylor's stamina and work-rate issues are absolutely made to order for Abraham, and I think the odds reflect that.
Posted:
#17
Danno I agree. The only reason I bet Ward as that I felt +1000 was a ridiculous price. Clear European books totally underestimating this guy and I thought thats amazing value. I haven't made a bet yet on AA for the whole tourney. I think he will drift so I will wait before pulling the trigger on this. I am with letmespin
People backing a mentally shot fighter going away from home for the first time against an undeafeted hard as nails hometown favourite! The more I think of it the more I think you need your heads examined! Dogs will some of these fights but JT. No way! Not in this spot
Posted:
#18
I don't believe Kessler will have much trouble in the first round either. Ward has never impressed me much, and while I might like his chances using movement for 12 rounds against Taylor or Froch, I don't think he will have enough pop to deter Kessler at all. I think Kessler is pretty basic, but he punches very hard, and I don't think Ward is really better than him technically. I guess people think he's the most likely American to pull an upset in this round, but I don't see it at all. It's interesting that Ward has not been criticized the same way Dirrell has been coming into this without much big fight experience as a pro. Bottom line for me is, there are way too many people backing Ward at more than 2-1 for him to win this.
Posted:
#19
I have Ward Kessler 50/50 therefore the value is with Ward. There is every chance Ward might not be ready for this challenge this early in his career. Spin if Kessler is 90% of the fighter he was over the next 18 months I have NO doubt he wins this Tourney. I just think there are a lot of questions about this guy and to me he still has a lot to prove. I think come 18 months time Ward will be ready, unless he is totally outclassed. Can't see that happening
Posted:
#20
I don't understand that angle. Kessler is not old. He has never been out of shape. What evidence of decline have you seen?
My feeling on Ward is that he's never really impressed me as a pro, and he's even shown real vulnerability that no one seems to be talking about. I don't think his experience or readiness at this point have anything to do with it. He's been around for years now, and he his people must feel like by now he's either going to make noise in this thing or he'll never get there. I have no problem backing an inexperienced guy though. My cash will be on Dirrell Saturday night.
My feeling on Ward is that he's never really impressed me as a pro, and he's even shown real vulnerability that no one seems to be talking about. I don't think his experience or readiness at this point have anything to do with it. He's been around for years now, and he his people must feel like by now he's either going to make noise in this thing or he'll never get there. I have no problem backing an inexperienced guy though. My cash will be on Dirrell Saturday night.
Posted:
#21
Quote Originally Posted by LetMeSpin:
I don't understand that angle. Kessler is not old. He has never been out of shape. What evidence of decline have you seen?
My feeling on Ward is that he's never really impressed me as a pro, and he's even shown real vulnerability that no one seems to be talking about. I don't think his experience or readiness at this point have anything to do with it. He's been around for years now, and he his people must feel like by now he's either going to make noise in this thing or he'll never get there. I have no problem backing an inexperienced guy though. My cash will be on Dirrell Saturday night.
I don't understand that angle. Kessler is not old. He has never been out of shape. What evidence of decline have you seen?
My feeling on Ward is that he's never really impressed me as a pro, and he's even shown real vulnerability that no one seems to be talking about. I don't think his experience or readiness at this point have anything to do with it. He's been around for years now, and he his people must feel like by now he's either going to make noise in this thing or he'll never get there. I have no problem backing an inexperienced guy though. My cash will be on Dirrell Saturday night.
I agree with Danno these fights are best bet individually. I can see why Mack jumped on him at way back then +1000 worth a shot.
Letmespin you make very good statements, cannot refute them, AA may very well win, it's why Jermaine is a dog in the fight he's supposed to lose.
I know Jermaine because of his stamina gives himself a second chance to lose, one by getting stopped due to stamina, or getting robbed.
I just personally feel if he's there at the ending bell..he wins, Jermaine wins rounds very decidedly, and loses them just as bad.
Abraham is a good fighter his lack of speed will be the difference, he doesn't have any one glaring flaw.
I also believe Zab Juddah gets the NOD for Best 4 round fighter lol! Jermaine looks amazing for about 7-8 before his stamina goes. But once he goes.. he GOES :)
Either way I'm excited for this tourney, finally something we can discuss. I believe all these fighters have a chance amazing to say eh? After Mayweather/Marquez Klitcho/Arreola stuff with get These gems!
I'm not one to lock up money for this long, I like to bet individual fights. We have 6 fighters in this Tourney who ALL have a shot.
Tomorrow night they have the Super 6 360 Preview, showcasing all 6 fighters will love to see how they portray each fighter.
Good luck to everyone,
Posted:
#22
One thing about Jermain that I saw today is that he's in great shape and ready to go. He had a bad habit of having to melt off alot of weight late in camp because he would be lazy. Not so this time. He's already at weight and because of this, I don't think stamina will be a problem for him. Not saying I'm backing him to win, but I expect him to put up a good fight. If he did win though, whoa! That would put a huge monkey wrench in things right at the beginning.
Posted:
#23
Spin I am only going on a Hunch about Kessler. A Big hunch at that. I am one of the few people that thinks Joe Calzaghe completely outclassed this guy. From rounds 5-12 in my eyes this guy gave Kessler a boxing lesson. That perfomance told me he is a long way from being a superstar and I have no doubt in my mind B-Hop beats this guy and Kelly Pavlik beats this guy.
Yes Kessler has beaten Andrade but he's list of victims is FAR from impressive. Seriously who has he beaten? Andrade, Mundine? Markus Beyer, Eric Lukas. I'm sorry that is NOT an impressive resume.
In 2 years he has fought -> Dimitri Sartison, Danilo Haussler, Gusmyr Perdomo. Who, Who and Who? Now after 2 years of bad opponents and inactivity he has to take a major step up in class..
Kessler is a very solid boxer (he does all the fundamentals well) and I expect him to make at least the semi's. Indeed he could win all 3 of his round robin matchups because if he beats Ward, I will throw my mortgage on Kessler to beat Froch easy in Denmark. And I mean EASY! Then JT in the last and he won't lose to JT.
But even though I expect Kessler to be there at the end I firmly believe he will lose this tournament. I think you need to be more then a solid boxer with a solid jab (actually an amazing jab). I think you need something extra to win a tournament like this.
Kessler should be a superstar by now, he is not and that tells me alot. I don't think he will ever be that superstar many of us thought he would be. He is a serious likeable guy, maybe thats a problem. Maybe he doesn't have that winners mentatilty like a B-HOP or Calzaghe.
The 3 guys I really can't see winning this or Froch, Kessler or JT. Kessler for the reasons I just mentioned, Froch is way to limitied and JT in my eyes is a mentally shot fighter. I don't think even if AA wins this (and I think he has every chance) that he has superstar quality. I am a European and proud but I want either Dirrell or Ward to win this and a new boxing superstar to be born. If Dirrell can beat Froch that would be a great start but I will be betting Froch in this one.
Posted:
#24
FYI:
My bets are (no amounts mentioned :-)
1) I already have a double on Vitali to KO Arreola and AA to beat JT..
2) Froch to beat Dirrell and Froch to win on points and maybe another small bet on the SD not UD. I see this going the distance for sure.
3) Ward to beat Kessler. Yes this may be too soon for Ward and I may end up looking very silly! (not the first time) but a young undefeated athelete in his own back yard against an inactive boxer for 2 years. Have to take a shot on the dog here...
Can't wait for next weekend!!!!!
Posted:
#25
I don't want to try to change your mind, but I'm sure you can understand why I have a problem with taking apart Kessler's resume in the lead up to a fight with Andre Ward. Mundine is easily better than anyone Ward has ever been put in with. This is why the line has been kept down so low though. There will be loads of Ward backers who feel Kessler is a fraud, and who have only seen him once in losing to Calzaghe. By the way, Kessler was less than +200 in the bout. What do you think the price on Ward would be against Joe Calzaghe in his day?
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