Poor Pacquiao Camp + Focused Margarito = Upset?

May I add that for once this is an opponent picked by the fighter (Pacquio) and not by handlers.. Pacman WANTED to fight Margarito cause, "I will destroy him"..

Careful what you ask for.. 

I put a max bet on "not Pacquiao inside the distance" at +135. I also put 2 units on Margarito straight at +425. (I can probably sell that at a profit come fight time if necessary) To answer the above questions..

1. Between the Mayweather drama, politics, lack of focus, etc., I feel that outside factors are now valid concerns. He is calling congress his "real" job? Nice. When Roach is on his last nerve with Manny due to his lack of focus and bullshit in the Phillipines, you know it is serious.

2. Manny at 154 is a joke - at least against Margarito. Margarito was huge at 147. Now he won't have to struggle to make weight. Manny is going to have to put rocks in his pockets and shims in his shoes to make up the half foot height disadvantage.

Manny only has one true advantage left in this fight and that is speed. That's great if you're fighting a fighter that comes to box and you can beat them to the punch using movement to stay out of range. DLH, Cotto, Clottey were those type of guys. Margarito isn't. He'll come straight forward and make Manny slug.

Manny might chop down the tree and avoid getting tagged, but he isn't stopping Margarito. I think we need to put that theory to rest because it's bullshit.

3. This might be the key. Margarito was the fighter people feared. He made you fight for your life. He ran through Cintron, pounded out a prime Cotto. How much was smoke n' mirrors?

Once a cheater, always a cheater? Or did he get caught with his hand in the cookie jar when the stakes were the highest? What you can't deny is that he can take a punch and he'll be hard to land good shots on given the height advantage. He'll also give you hell even in defeat.

4. Mike Tyson in Tokyo, Lennox Lewis in South Africa. Their minds were not on the fight, and they got their lights turned out. I feel that Manny's situation is very similar to those fights. In fact, Margarito is more of a legit foe than either Douglas or Rahman. Why not now?

That's my stance at the moment. Pacquiao is still great. However, I feel at this point we can rule out a blowout.

Walk, I would not attempt to put anyone off talking Marg at these prices. Indeed it's probably the only value bet and  have made some true valid points. For me however Margarito's bubble was well and truly burst against Mosley. I don't believe Roach/Arum throw Pacquaio in there without being 100% sure its an easy night for their charge. All this stuff about bad training camps, we have heard before. Remember before the Cotto fight and the typhoons in the Philippines and how everyone thought Pacman's camp was poor. We all know what happened fight night. I think these reports of lack of focus, Khan hurting Pacquaio and to sell the fight. To get people curious to that they will buy the fight. Boxing is a business and my cynical nature makes me think Marg can't win this fight. Pacquaio is Arums cash cow and no way a fighter from his stable beats him. Read into that what u want.

Manny's speed and footwork (this is the key) will be in my opinion too much for Margarito. I think Margarito will be a walking punch bag and I expect Pacquaio to box rings around him and win by late stoppage or by landslide points decision. I will be Playing Pacman KO between rounds 10-12 and Pacman on Points @ +300.

I will write more the closer we get to the fight..