Posted:
#101
Big I have a hard time seeing that kind of movement from Taylor. As fast as his hands are, he does not have quick feet. He fights flat-footed on his heels.
Plays for the Week (It's Pavlik time)
Posted:
#102
Quote Originally Posted by LetMeSpin:
Big I have a hard time seeing that kind of movement from Taylor. As fast as his hands are, he does not have quick feet. He fights flat-footed on his heels.
Big I have a hard time seeing that kind of movement from Taylor. As fast as his hands are, he does not have quick feet. He fights flat-footed on his heels.
Cosign. LetMeSpin you hit it on the head. Bigeiii, not sure what your "#1 boxing source" is seeing, but Taylor's footwork has never been good.
Posted:
#103
That person is in here; from time to time, most likely you've seen this poster. JT has more lateral mobility, more lateral quicks, and quicker hands to counter with. Yah; I know what you mean, JT has his left leg too far ahead, in too wide a stance, in a textbook sense. But once bitten twice shy won't slow JT down any either.
GLA!
bigeiii
GLA!
bigeiii
Posted:
#104
Quote Originally Posted by bigeiii:
That person is in here; from time to time, most likely you've seen this poster. JT has more lateral mobility, more lateral quicks, and quicker hands to counter with. Yah; I know what you mean, JT has his left leg too far ahead, in too wide a stance, in a textbook sense. But once bitten twice shy won't slow JT down any either.
GLA!
bigeiii
That person is in here; from time to time, most likely you've seen this poster. JT has more lateral mobility, more lateral quicks, and quicker hands to counter with. Yah; I know what you mean, JT has his left leg too far ahead, in too wide a stance, in a textbook sense. But once bitten twice shy won't slow JT down any either.
GLA!
bigeiii
I can't say I know who you are speaking of, don't really understand the mystery.
JT may move laterally with some success for a couple of rounds here or there, but he has proven time after time that this is something that he cannot do over the course of a fight. A cat does not change his stripes this late. Even seven years into his pro career, Taylor is still very raw and amateurish. It's not just his stance either, LetMeSpin hit it on the head when he said that he fights flat footed on his heels the majority of the time.
You are correct in saying that he has the advantage in hand speed, that's the biggest thing he has going for him. I think Taylor's best chance to win is to take Pavlik out in the first three rounds, but obviously I don't think he can; Pavlik knows how to survive when hurt. Pavlik has been a slow starter in the past and was dropped pretty hard by Zuniga early and obviously by Taylor also in the first go round.
Posted:
#107
I'd guess electricApe, but that's the only one I can think of.
Agreed with everything else Fullbrights. I can't freaking wait for this fight.
I parlayed Lyakhovich +311 with Pavlik, and Lyakhovich on the pts handicap with Pavlik too for a few peanuts for funsies.
I see it's at -170 today. . . Pissed at myself hitting it at -185 and -183. . . I didn't think it would drop any more 
Bagel Sandwiches Suck
bigeiii
Posted:
#120
I shouldn't have bought out of my over play, there was no way of telling how WW who already had stamina issues would fare with extra poundage.
If you would have told me beforehand that Valuev wins every round and WW isn't competitive I would have definitely said that he gets stopped. I thought going in that Sergey had to be competitive to last the distance.
If you would have told me beforehand that Valuev wins every round and WW isn't competitive I would have definitely said that he gets stopped. I thought going in that Sergey had to be competitive to last the distance.
Posted:
#121
Quote Originally Posted by Fullbrights:
All plays and units wagered posted
2006 Results (March-July): +19.2 units (+$1,920)
2007 Results: +42.25 units (+$4,225)
Last Week: +.52 of a unit (+$52)
2008 to Date: -4.68 units (-$468)
Taylor-Pavlik II is finally here and I am pumped. Talk about a PPV boxing fans shouldn't hesitate to buy. I have been down on most of my plays for this week for a while in my posted futures, but I did add more on Pavlik and take out Alvarado along with Mijares in a parlay.
1.85 units on Pavlik (-185)
5 units on Pavlik (-175)
1.65 units on Pavlik ITD (-105)
This is the most I have had on a fight in a long time, but I love the ghost here. As I have expressed over the past few months on here, what will change? I watched the fight again this week for what was probably the 10th time and I feel exactly the same.
It seems that people who are giving Taylor a great shot are banking on a couple of things, lets take a look at them.
Taylor was one punch away from stopping Pavlik in the 2nd round.....Agree, but I think it had more to do with Pavlik being careless, it wasn't until he dropped his hands and gave Taylor two free shots that he was seriously hurt. I think if he doesn't do this and simply clinches he never hits the canvas. What happened the next round? Pavlik was backing Taylor down once again.
Taylor was ahead on the cards at the time of the stoppage......Yes, on the judges cards he was, but wow those scores were bogus. The gap closes with a 10-8 round in the 7th to one point on two cards even if Taylor doesn't get stopped. I don't think you will see Taylor scorecard favoritism anymore. Besides, the cards probably won't matter anyway.
Taylor gassed himself out in the second.........Come on, when has Taylor ever had great stamina. He may have gassed a bit earlier than usual, but it was only a matter of time.
Taylor will be more careful and box from the outside......What fight were you watching? How will this strategy help? Pavlik out jabbed Jermain from the outside and landed straight right hands all night from a distance. Jermain actually did his best work on the inside. Taylor may be a bit more careful, but that won't translate into success.
The added weight favors Pavlik IMO as do all the mental intangibles. Listen, I will be the first to admit Saturday night if I have this wrong, but if Jermain beats Kelly I will view it as just as big of an upset as Quintana last week. Pavlik will land a lot of right hands in route to stopping Taylor around the 10th or dropping him in route to winning a UD.
3 units on Castillo (+130) vs Montiel
What I wrote last week....
Castillo's tendency to cut is definitely a concern, I mean it's the reason he lost his title. That cut was nasty in the Nashiro fight and in my opinion the reason the fight was so close when it was stopped. He has had some scar tissue removed since, so that shouldn't hurt. I just really like Castillo in this spot for a couple reasons,. Technically he is better than Montiel, he should win the battle inside and I actually think he can fight on an even level from the outside with Montiel even though his hands are slower due to those superior technical skills. Plus, Castillo has the better chin.
Yes, Castillo is 31, but I really feel that he is the fresher fighter of the two; Montiel has more miles on him and has been fighting at a championship level for seven years. I thought the regression that was evident in the Melendez fight had really started to show itself in the Posuwan fight.
Plus, I like a couple of other the factors that may or may not play a role. I really like the pairing of Castillo and Rudy Perez a lot. Espinoza has been on a very nice run putting his fighters in very good spots (Huerta and Vasquez) to succeed. Montiel has been grumbling about GBP for over a year, so what does GBP do? They put him in against a Top Rank fighter on a Top Rank card, no GBP influence concern here. Most importantly I have a gut feeling here, so this is the reason for a larger than usual dog play. I will probably take out a bit more next week also if I see the line climb to +130 again or higher. I see Castillo winning and setting up an Arce fight which he will also win.
2.8 units on over 10.5 rounds (-140) in Valuev-White Wolf
If Lyakhovich is in shape (which he appears to be) and comes to win he should have no problem lasting the distance and will probably make this fight very competitive IMO. I am so glad the giant as gotten exposed for the hype job that he is, I knew it after Donald and cashed in with Chagaev. Valuev to me looked the worse he ever has against that Canadian bum Bergeron, Bergeron was never in trouble of being stopped and I don't think Lyakhovich will be either. I envision a dull fight.
1.5 unit parlay to win 1.62
Alvarado (-250)
Mijares (-390)
Wlad (-550)
Pushing-It, I'm looking forward to seeing your boy Alvarado in what is probably his toughest test to date. I think he passes with flying colors. Is Mijares a superstar? Time will tell, but he will thwart Navarro's title hopes once again.
All plays and units wagered posted
2006 Results (March-July): +19.2 units (+$1,920)
2007 Results: +42.25 units (+$4,225)
Last Week: +.52 of a unit (+$52)
2008 to Date: -4.68 units (-$468)
Taylor-Pavlik II is finally here and I am pumped. Talk about a PPV boxing fans shouldn't hesitate to buy. I have been down on most of my plays for this week for a while in my posted futures, but I did add more on Pavlik and take out Alvarado along with Mijares in a parlay.
1.85 units on Pavlik (-185)
5 units on Pavlik (-175)
1.65 units on Pavlik ITD (-105)
This is the most I have had on a fight in a long time, but I love the ghost here. As I have expressed over the past few months on here, what will change? I watched the fight again this week for what was probably the 10th time and I feel exactly the same.
It seems that people who are giving Taylor a great shot are banking on a couple of things, lets take a look at them.
Taylor was one punch away from stopping Pavlik in the 2nd round.....Agree, but I think it had more to do with Pavlik being careless, it wasn't until he dropped his hands and gave Taylor two free shots that he was seriously hurt. I think if he doesn't do this and simply clinches he never hits the canvas. What happened the next round? Pavlik was backing Taylor down once again.
Taylor was ahead on the cards at the time of the stoppage......Yes, on the judges cards he was, but wow those scores were bogus. The gap closes with a 10-8 round in the 7th to one point on two cards even if Taylor doesn't get stopped. I don't think you will see Taylor scorecard favoritism anymore. Besides, the cards probably won't matter anyway.
Taylor gassed himself out in the second.........Come on, when has Taylor ever had great stamina. He may have gassed a bit earlier than usual, but it was only a matter of time.
Taylor will be more careful and box from the outside......What fight were you watching? How will this strategy help? Pavlik out jabbed Jermain from the outside and landed straight right hands all night from a distance. Jermain actually did his best work on the inside. Taylor may be a bit more careful, but that won't translate into success.
The added weight favors Pavlik IMO as do all the mental intangibles. Listen, I will be the first to admit Saturday night if I have this wrong, but if Jermain beats Kelly I will view it as just as big of an upset as Quintana last week. Pavlik will land a lot of right hands in route to stopping Taylor around the 10th or dropping him in route to winning a UD.
3 units on Castillo (+130) vs Montiel
What I wrote last week....
Castillo's tendency to cut is definitely a concern, I mean it's the reason he lost his title. That cut was nasty in the Nashiro fight and in my opinion the reason the fight was so close when it was stopped. He has had some scar tissue removed since, so that shouldn't hurt. I just really like Castillo in this spot for a couple reasons,. Technically he is better than Montiel, he should win the battle inside and I actually think he can fight on an even level from the outside with Montiel even though his hands are slower due to those superior technical skills. Plus, Castillo has the better chin.
Yes, Castillo is 31, but I really feel that he is the fresher fighter of the two; Montiel has more miles on him and has been fighting at a championship level for seven years. I thought the regression that was evident in the Melendez fight had really started to show itself in the Posuwan fight.
Plus, I like a couple of other the factors that may or may not play a role. I really like the pairing of Castillo and Rudy Perez a lot. Espinoza has been on a very nice run putting his fighters in very good spots (Huerta and Vasquez) to succeed. Montiel has been grumbling about GBP for over a year, so what does GBP do? They put him in against a Top Rank fighter on a Top Rank card, no GBP influence concern here. Most importantly I have a gut feeling here, so this is the reason for a larger than usual dog play. I will probably take out a bit more next week also if I see the line climb to +130 again or higher. I see Castillo winning and setting up an Arce fight which he will also win.
2.8 units on over 10.5 rounds (-140) in Valuev-White Wolf
If Lyakhovich is in shape (which he appears to be) and comes to win he should have no problem lasting the distance and will probably make this fight very competitive IMO. I am so glad the giant as gotten exposed for the hype job that he is, I knew it after Donald and cashed in with Chagaev. Valuev to me looked the worse he ever has against that Canadian bum Bergeron, Bergeron was never in trouble of being stopped and I don't think Lyakhovich will be either. I envision a dull fight.
1.5 unit parlay to win 1.62
Alvarado (-250)
Mijares (-390)
Wlad (-550)
Pushing-It, I'm looking forward to seeing your boy Alvarado in what is probably his toughest test to date. I think he passes with flying colors. Is Mijares a superstar? Time will tell, but he will thwart Navarro's title hopes once again.
Pretty heavy on the "Ghost" good luck FB, I will be pulling for you!
Posted:
#122
Quote Originally Posted by Fullbrights:
I shouldn't have bought out of my over play, there was no way of telling how WW who already had stamina issues would fare with extra poundage.
If you would have told me beforehand that Valuev wins every round and WW isn't competitive I would have definitely said that he gets stopped. I thought going in that Sergey had to be competitive to last the distance.
I shouldn't have bought out of my over play, there was no way of telling how WW who already had stamina issues would fare with extra poundage.
If you would have told me beforehand that Valuev wins every round and WW isn't competitive I would have definitely said that he gets stopped. I thought going in that Sergey had to be competitive to last the distance.
Well said. That is why I took NV by stoppage and after watching the fight think it was WELL within his grasp to do it.
The Giant just decided to hit him at will but with nothing too powerful. When he did let his power punches go, he hurt SL.
Posted:
#123
BOXEO, nice to see you in. You & your people are sure strong on Montiel. As you see above, I'm down with that. Lottsa stoppage plays for KP as well. The one guy is real game calling out Rounds. Tough to argue with against KP. But KP ITD, or my JT plays will do me real well. Keep up the great previews, I'm always a reader.
gla
bigeiii
gla
bigeiii
Posted:
#124
Quote Originally Posted by bigeiii:
BOXEO, nice to see you in. You & your people are sure strong on Montiel. As you see above, I'm down with that. Lottsa stoppage plays for KP as well. The one guy is real game calling out Rounds. Tough to argue with against KP. But KP ITD, or my JT plays will do me real well. Keep up the great previews, I'm always a reader.
gla
bigeiii
BOXEO, nice to see you in. You & your people are sure strong on Montiel. As you see above, I'm down with that. Lottsa stoppage plays for KP as well. The one guy is real game calling out Rounds. Tough to argue with against KP. But KP ITD, or my JT plays will do me real well. Keep up the great previews, I'm always a reader.
gla
bigeiii
Hey Big,
Nice to hear from you (you still have not posted on our forums) I think Montiel and Castillo is going to be a pretty solid fight. As FB said, cuts have to be considered when betting this fight.
I was also surprised about the round prop picks. I guess he figures JT can only keep KP off of him for so long before he is forced to stand and trade.
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