Plays for the Week (It's Pavlik time)

All plays and units wagered posted
2006 Results (March-July): +19.2 units (+$1,920)
2007 Results: +42.25 units (+$4,225)
Last Week: +.52 of a unit (+$52)
2008 to Date: -4.68 units (-$468)

Taylor-Pavlik II is finally here and I am pumped.  Talk about a PPV boxing fans shouldn't hesitate to buy. I have been down on most of my plays for this week for a while in my posted futures, but I did add more on Pavlik and take out Alvarado along with Mijares in a parlay.

1.85 units on Pavlik (-185)
5 units on Pavlik (-175)
1.65 units on Pavlik ITD (-105)
This is the most I have had on a fight in a long time, but I love the ghost here.  As I have expressed over the past few months on here, what will change?  I watched the fight again this week for what was probably the 10th time and I feel exactly the same.

It seems that people who are giving Taylor a great shot are banking on a couple of things, lets take a look at them.
Taylor was one punch away from stopping Pavlik in the 2nd round.....Agree, but I think it had more to do with Pavlik being careless, it wasn't until he dropped his hands and gave Taylor two free shots that he was seriously hurt.  I think if he doesn't do this and simply clinches he never hits the canvas.  What happened the next round?  Pavlik was backing Taylor down once again.
Taylor was ahead on the cards at the time of the stoppage......Yes, on the judges cards he was, but wow those scores were bogus.  The gap closes with a 10-8 round in the 7th to one point on two cards even if Taylor doesn't get stopped.  I don't think you will see Taylor scorecard favoritism anymore.  Besides, the cards probably won't matter anyway.
Taylor gassed himself out in the second.........Come on, when has Taylor ever had great stamina.  He may have gassed a bit earlier than usual, but it was only a matter of time.
Taylor will be more careful and box from the outside......What fight were you watching?  How will this strategy help? Pavlik out jabbed Jermain from the outside and landed straight right hands all night from a distance.  Jermain actually did his best work on the inside.  Taylor may be a bit more careful, but that won't translate into success.

The added weight favors Pavlik IMO as do all the mental intangibles.  Listen, I will be the first to admit Saturday night if I have this wrong, but if Jermain beats Kelly I will view it as just as big of an upset as Quintana last week.  Pavlik will land a lot of right hands in route to stopping Taylor around the 10th or dropping him in route to winning a UD.

3 units on Castillo (+130) vs Montiel
What I wrote last week....
Castillo's tendency to cut is definitely a concern, I mean it's the reason he lost his title.  That cut was nasty in the Nashiro fight and in my opinion the reason the fight was so close when it was stopped.  He has had some scar tissue removed since, so that shouldn't hurt.  I just really like Castillo in this spot for a couple reasons,.  Technically he is better than Montiel, he should win the battle inside and I actually think he can fight on an even level from the outside with Montiel even though his hands are slower due to those superior technical skills.  Plus, Castillo has the better chin.

Yes, Castillo is 31, but I really feel that he is the fresher fighter of the two;  Montiel has more miles on him and has been fighting at a championship level for seven years.  I thought the regression that was evident in the Melendez fight had really started to show itself in the Posuwan fight. 

Plus, I like a couple of other the factors that may or may not play a role.  I really like the pairing of Castillo and Rudy Perez a lot.  Espinoza has been on a very nice run putting his fighters in very good spots (Huerta and Vasquez) to succeed.  Montiel has been grumbling about GBP for over a year, so what does GBP do?  They put him in against a Top Rank fighter on a Top Rank card, no GBP influence concern here.  Most importantly I have a gut feeling here, so this is the reason for a larger than usual dog play.  I will probably take out a bit more next week also if I see the line climb to +130 again or higher.  I see Castillo winning and setting up an Arce fight which he will also win.

2.8 units on over 10.5 rounds (-140) in Valuev-White Wolf
If Lyakhovich is in shape (which he appears to be) and comes to win he should have no problem lasting the distance and will probably make this fight very competitive IMO.  I am so glad the giant as gotten exposed for the hype job that he is, I knew it after Donald and cashed in with Chagaev.  Valuev to me looked the worse he ever has against that Canadian bum Bergeron, Bergeron was never in trouble of being stopped and I don't think Lyakhovich will be either.  I envision a dull fight.

1.5 unit parlay to win 1.62
Alvarado (-250)
Mijares (-390)
Wlad (-550)
Pushing-It, I'm looking forward to seeing your boy Alvarado in what is probably his toughest test to date.  I think he passes with flying colors.  Is Mijares a superstar?  Time will tell, but he will thwart Navarro's title hopes once again.

Future fights that I'm already on......

1.4 units on under 7.5 (-140) in Guerrero-Litzau
1 unit on Marquez (+155) vs Manny P.
1 unit on Hopkins (+250) vs Calzaghe
2.8 units on under 9.5 rounds (-140) in Cotto-Gomez

Good luck buddy.  I am on The Wolf.  This is my first week back in about 2 months after getting my dick completely knocked in by the NFL last year.  Up a dime and put it all on The Wolf to win 2400.

Pretty strong on KP Fullbrights. I'm taking notice of your strength on that. But the one thing that does concern me, is KP has been down, buzzed, and touched prior to JT. I don't see JT actually trainng for stamina in this one. IF (& I'm not sure he has trained any better, not at all), but IF he has upped his cardio; me thinks that's to try to get KP out fast. Just come in nuclear, go as long as he can, & if he gets beat, nothing changed this time. So I actually like the LOW here. I'm even toying with both ITD, though I'd favor KP here. Did play Either KD/Out as well.

I agry on the UP on the 7` CCCP white wolf contest. I even played both via Decision. Agry on Mijares. Played the UP on Drods fight. The UP on the Shea Stadium chick fight, Karo as well.

GLA!
bigeiii

Not sure where to start with this guy.
 


Who would you say set that pace? Jermain? That's funny. There was a reason he didn't have any space or time in the first fight. KP's left hand was in his face all night.

What defensive tactics? Will he hold his left hand at his waist instead of below his knees while backing straight up? Pavlik could easily win a decision if Jermain comes in scared off of that devastating knockout. We've seen plenty of great boxers fight simply to survive when facing their KO conquerors a 2nd time, there's no reason a mediocre JT can't do it also. The problem is he won't have the legs to run for 12 rounds, and we already know he doesn't have the chin to be punished for that length of time.

And now for the most absurd part of your post. He should be favored?? Who on earth would lay chalk on a possibly dead fighter? How did you cap Tarver-Jones III? Roy -300?
The only chance JT has is to land a huge shot, but straight up, I don't think he even has any business getting back into the ring with this man, and I don't even like Jermain. For everyone who has supported Jermain, saying well if he'd only hold his gloves up high...if he'd only stay off the ropes...if he'd only just listen to his fucking corner...
It hasn't happened yet, and Kelly Pavlik is absolutely the wrong man to try to implement a new fight plan against. What Manny said on the Countdown about Jermain as an instinct fighter is all you need to know about JT's chances of improving defensively.

Taylor hurt Kelly with a sharp right hand in round two about 45 seconds before pavlik went down.  you can see if you watch it over and over.  Pavlik couldn't see for awhile then Taylor unloaded.  I've talked to Kelly (I live in Youngstown) and he isn't the kinda kid that wont get up.  Call it.. a thick skull.  However, these two duked it out and I was there live.  I can only give this advice about a for sure bet.  You know those bets that ppl say are for sure and you think nothing is for sure..  Well, this is.....

THIS WILL NOT GO TO DECISION.
UNDER 10.5

My whole bank roll's on it.

Go Kelly but it's going to be one hell of a fight.  SOMEBODY's going down pretty early.

The reason it was in his face is because JT went straight back all fight. If he just puts in a little lateral movement and not go straight back he will be okay. If you go back and watch the first round of the fight, it WAS JT who set the pace. He came out like gang busters, first punch was a crazy right hand that he threw. I don't know what his strategy was but he did come out throwing a lot of shots in the first round which I don't think was the right gameplan.

And as devastating as the knockout was, recall the 2nd round when JT had pavlik doing a version of the zab judah chicken dance around the ring. Any other ref would've stopped the fight right then and there. And as for not being able to go 12 rounds, JT had gone 12 in his previous 5 fights. I think he did start to get a little gassed in their last fight but he shouldn't have a problem going 12 rounds.

dead fighter? The kid has only been a pro for 6 years, not even 30 years old yet, and all of a sudden after one loss hes a dead fighter? Who has KP been in the ring with besides JT? sure he has a punch, and knocked out an overrated Edison Miranda, but thats it. JT has been in with the best and beaten them.

Even for Tarver-Jones III I gave roy a chance to win that fight, just based on him being a far superior boxer then Tarver. But Roy was a 38 year old washed up fighter at that point. You can't really compare that Roy who had almost been fighting for 18 years to a guy like JT. JT is still in the prime of his fight career and this I think will be a defining moment in his career. He was a pro for 5 years after stepping in the ring with arguably the best P4P fighter at that time in BHOP and won twice. I'm not saying JT should be favored, but I figured the fight to still be towards a pick em.

But he won't dude.

Steward has said it best in the countdown when he said that JT is an instinct fighter.  If you watch the last fight, JT had a decent game plan the first round or two trying to be the aggressor, but after that, he went RIGHT BACK to fighting backwards, dropping his hands, and letting himself get backed into a corner.  Not only that, he got gassed after the second round.

You don't think Steward knew that JT fighting that way wouldn't get him killed?  I'm sure he spent an ungodly about of time trying to get JT to not do that, and to no avail.  Now, Steward isn't there in camp, and he's going back to the guy that allowed him to fight that way for all those years. Good luck trying to get him to change his fighting habits in 4 months when he's never been able to do it before.

Taylor loves to fight backwards, drop his hands, and has a bad habit of getting caught in a corner.  Pavlik likes to drop bombs, be the aggressor, and got JT caught in the corner multiple times last fight.  You trust JT to change his whole fighting style to win, whereas Pavlik doesn't have to change anything. . .  You're asking for trouble man. 

Pavlik has very, very heavy hands.  The sports announcers keep saying that it was more or less one punch that KO'd Taylor.  Not even close.  I had Pavlik by decision that fight and he kept sticking straight, hard 1-2s in Taylor's face all night.  When the KO happened (which I knew by round 4 it would), I was sick, only to be sicker when I heard what the scorecards were despite what I considered to be an easy night for Pavlik.

Keep in mind those wacky scorecards if this goes to the cards.  Apparently getting punched in the face all night wins favor with the judges.

SF I just think you're wrong on almost every angle of this fight. Possibly dead, yes. At the time of Tarver-Jones II, I would argue that Roy had been hit no more than JT up to the KP fight in his career. The beating he took from KP doesn't just make you old, it changes your career. How old was Fernando Vargas when he retired? Maybe a shade under 30, but he hadn't been the same since Trinidad murdered him 7 years ago. So, yes, a knockout like that does mean he's past his prime. In my view, Taylor will never be the same.

I actually disagree that Taylor has the power to stop Pavlik. KP has sledge hammer power that puts guys to sleep.
Who is the last top fighter JT KO'd? Daniel Edouard? He has quick, explosive power that stuns you, but I think it would take another equilibrium shot and a clinical follow up to get Kelly out of there. I simply don't think Jermain is capable of producing that, not anymore at least.

 

 

Anyone have any takes on ESPN2's FNF's??? TIA.

GLA!
bigeiii

well said, i agree 100%....everyone betting taylor in this fight is saying he will CHANGE this or change that, we have all been saying that about Taylor for years. Bottom line is as you said he's an instinct fighter and he goes back to those bad habits on instinct after a few rounds.