Plays for the Week (Finally partial unification)

All plays and units wagered posted
2006 Results (March-July): +19.2 units (+$1,920)
2007 Results: +42.25 units (+$4,225)
Last Week: -.89 of a unit (+$89)
2008 to Date: -5.57 units (-$557)

We don't have near the action that we had last week, but at least we finally get some unification in the HW division.  I wanted to bet Barashian against Ulrich, but couldn't bring myself to do it with the poor odds out there this time.  Before the fight was called off the first time I had him tabbed for a bit at +750 in my posted future plays and I even remember seeing it move to +800 for a time before the fight was nixed.  I feel like I'm giving in or giving away too much if I bet it at +480 or +510 now, I guess I should have played it again last week at +600.  I haven't seen Yuri, but I have seen Ulrich a good bit; he never was much and he is ripe for an upset that would put an end to his career. So I am only down on Klitschko closing a parlay and ITD right now.

1.5 unit parlay to win 1.62
Alvarado (-250)
Mijares (-390)
Wlad (-550)
Wlad to close out the parlay from last week.

1.5 units on Klitschko ITD (-150)
This is what I wrote on the fight on here a while back, my thoughts haven't changed.....
They do have a common opponent in Ray Austin.  The Ibragimov camp would want you to believe that the Austin fight was an aberration; that Sultan simply wasn't focused coming in heavy and the stamina/chin issues he showed that night can be attributed to that.  I'm not so sure though, he had a lot of the same problems against Ahunanya in late 2005 in a bout that was televised on ESPN Deportes; Friday was able to cut the ring off and touch up Sultan with some success while also dropping him (not the "flashy" type either if I remember correctly).  Sultan won a TD when a Friday cut caused the fights go to the cards, but I didn't have it as wide as the judges.  Sultan just isn't very skilled defensively and is reckless coming in (not a good combination against Wlad).  He was lucky that Briggs didn't throw more than 30 punches in any round against him.

Klitschko is still fragile, he has just masked it well post Peter due to his lack of opposition in his last 4 fights.  I don't think it will be against Iggy, but you will see fragile Wlad reappear when his chin gets touched solidly again by a real puncher.who is willing to press Wlad.

Added a parlay....

.75 of a unit to win 1.14
Gutierrez (-350)
Barker (-700)
Wlad ITD (-140)

I just checked out if lines had come out at the Odessa books yet and it looks like a lot more fights were offered than I thought would be.  I still cannot bring myself to fund Sportsbook again; you shouldn't ever have to wait that long to receive your money.  Now it's wait and see to see what the numbers do before 5dimes and thegreek gets them up.  Wow did they open Gutierrez high or what?  You could set up some free money there taking Varela at SB and Richard at 5dimes.  You have to like those odds on Brinkley beating Griffin. Barkley isn't anything special, but Griffin is terrible.  It really is a shame that Larios is lacing the gloves up again, he is suspended indefinitely in the states for his bleeding on the brain from the Mijares fight and should definitely call it a day in lieu of beating the system by fighting in Mexico.  The Duddy and Gamboa (he can be special IMO) unders are kind of tempting.  I thought we might get some odds on Johnson-Gonzalez.

Added a bit more on Hopkins, that's it for me until decision props come out.  Also took Johanneson as a dog.  Thinking about tabbing Casamoyer if he rises a bit more.  I know I went against him with Santa Cruz, but as a dog against Katsidis he is awfully tempting.  I know Michael is stronger and much younger, but he gets hit a lot and I think Joel's style will give him problems.  Where are all the Pac-Man bettors? I want those Marquez odds to rise.

Futures......
1.4 units on under 7.5 (-140) in Guerrero-Litzau
.50 of a unit on Johanneson (+300) vs Mitchell
1 unit on Marquez (+155) vs Manny P.
1 unit on Hopkins (+250) vs Calzaghe
.50 of a unit on Hopkins (+220) vs Calzaghe
2.8 units on under 9.5 rounds (-140) in Cotto-Gomez

We differ on your Calzaghe take.  First of all I don't think Bernard could ever be annihilated, he doesn't get hurt very easily.  Bernard will make it ugly and he may lose, but it will be close if he does.  This is not a mismatch or 3-1 fight IMO.

Played a one more.....This is probably it for the week,unless I play a fight outcome that isn't up yet.

1.75 units on Brinkley (-115) vs Griffin
The size disparity is a concern, but like I said yesterday... Griffin sucks.  The number is -140 at 5dimes, -170 at thegreek where I played it, even at -140 I would strongly advocate a play on Brinkley.

I agry on Brinks, but it took me seeing his retirement declaration on G.Houston's write up to do so. Brinks won't hurt for a mild home-field edge either.

GLA!
bigeiii

I lied, I threw together a long shot parlay for tonight and tomorrow.

.25 of a unit to win 2.42
Gutierrez (-525)
Gamboa-Edwards under 7.5 (-125)
Bravo-Ornelas under 6.5 (-175)
Wlad (-370)
Duddy-Smichet under 7.5 (-140)
Lopez (-850)
Dieppa (-330)

Brinkley saying he's going to retire shouldn't really play a role in whether this wins or not.  The only thing that worries me here is Otis being the bigger man, if it wasn't for this I would be on Jessie even larger.  Technically speaking these two aren't close.  Griffin is athletic, but he isn't much of a fighter.  Brinkley has average skills, and his are far superior to Griffin's IMO.

We shall see Saturday night.  I think Klitschko has a belt on each shoulder.

Great analysis.

Meaning at the end of the night.

.75 of a unit to win 1.14
Gutierrez (-350)
Barker (-700)
Wlad ITD (-140)

Barker moves one parlay onto tonight.  Reads at ESB like it played out the way I said it would in the other thread, Barker was well ahead when he won via cut stoppage. He doesn't have much of a punch, but he does have a nice skill set.

Kool!
TKO in the 7th for some U.K. regional trinket. But I'll take it.


bigeiii

.25 of a unit to win 2.42
Gutierrez (-525)
Gamboa-Edwards under 7.5 (-125)
Bravo-Ornelas under 6.5 (-175)
Wlad (-370)
Duddy-Smichet under 7.5 (-140)
Lopez (-850)
Dieppa (-330)

The long shot was over before it really got going.  Awesome display by Gamboa that allowed me to barely miss out on any of the Telefutura action.  How's the saying go, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades?  Entertaining scrap with Bravo and Ornelas, Bravo got screwed out of a KD in the 1st, he KD Ornelas and hurt him pretty bad in the 4th, Bravo is tired badly after the 4th, Ornelas appears a couple of punches away from finishing Bravo in the  5th and 6th, and Bravo quits on his stool after the 7th.  Fun fight, but no winner.

Check that, I had my rounds mixed up, thanks for the edit fightnews.  It was the 3rd that Ornelas was down and hurt in.  Bravo should probably hang them up now, no more contender paydays for him, his body looked very bad at 160 lbs.

Atlas sides with Iggy backers.

 Who the fuck has B-Hop beat?  He beat Mason DixonWinky Wright @170,Oscar,Tito all  small  and not legit Middle Weights.Now when he has fought real good middle weights what happen? He lost Roy Jones beat him and so did Jermaine.I think James Toney was a better Middle Weight Champ then this Phony.The angles and the non stop punchin is gonna kill Bernard these punches arent coming from a a fighter who was his best @ 145 this guy has been a middle weight his whole career and a very good one.Joe Cal retires Bernard the cry baby

Well he is the current linear light heavyweight champion of the world.  No matter how you feel about Tarver it is a rare feat to be a linear champ at 160 and 175, further for a career MW to claim the light heavyweight championship after two straight "losses" is pretty special.  To do all this at the age of 41 is unheard of.  I for one didn't expect him to beat Tarver that night.

Let's be honest, did he really lose to Jermain?  I will give you the 2nd fight, but B-Hop won the first go round.  Yeah, he lost to Jones, but Roy circa 1993 was pretty special and Bernard was still learning his craft.

Bernard seems to have the ability to get whoever he is facing to conform to his style.  Listen I am a Calzaghe believer and fan, I bet him against Kessler and I even bet him against Lacy, but I do think this fight will be very close.  Don't doubt the GBP influence in Vegas either.

.75 of a unit to win 1.14
Gutierrez (-350)
Barker (-700)
Wlad ITD (-140)

A second parlay pushes through to Klitschko, this one needs an early ending though.  I was hoping to catch a Brinkley-Griffin result before I called it a night, but it's been a long day and I can't stay up anymore.

Their last times out, Bernard looked too old and Calzaghe looked too unbeatable for me to ever back Hopkins in this fight.

1.75 units on Brinkley (-115) vs Griffin

No details, but Brinkley's career keeps going.  There was a big talent disparity here, I honestly should have played this again at -140.  "The Next Great Chump" may want to call it a day, talk about a forgotten show.

i took wlad by dec. +350 5units, by ko -150, ml -400 10 units each

sultan ml +300, by dec. +1100 5 units each