Pac/Marquez

Take the under, my book took it offline cause everyone was hitting the under 10 rounds.  Manny is too big, too fast, too strong.  He's also a two fisted fighter now, not just a jab,jab, straight left hurricane he was in there first two meetings.

If I had cash flow, I would take manny too at -850 or whatever it is...but since I don't, I'll roll with the under.

 

-850?

Paq is now at -300. this fight will go off at Paq-200/JMM+150, maybe even better if you are a Paq fan.

 

 

This bout is entirely different than the previous two wars they had. All the variables are changed and in Manny's favor. He is now much stronger and much better of a boxer. Marquez proved against Mayweather that he can't carry the power with the weight. Manny has shown he has he has power despite the fact his last 4 fights go to the 12th round, his punishment over Margarito and Cotto were viscious, and Clottey and Mosley fought to survive and lose every round!

don't know what the fuck just happen with my last post, but my book has pacquiao at -1025,  the under does seem like the play in this one, but I think I will lay off and bet it all on STANFORD vs OREGON going OVER 68 in one my biggest plays of the year

-300? What sportsbook has that? I haven't seen anything close to that. I know Caliente has -400/+200, but even in Las Vegas with many Mexican loyalists, Manny is not only great, but he is well liked regardless of with the media hype has been about him being called the "Mexicutioner", despite Manny publicly saying he doesn't like to be called that. If anything, that low odds (from -1000 at most sportsbooks)  will only entice more Manny bettors.

I'll go with Over 10.5 rounds.

Judging by the 24-7 show it looks like Marquez has bulked up and has some good size and speed still.

Yesterday though I heard he was badly limping at the Latin Grammys. Can anyone confirm?

Dinamita looked good bulked up in 24/7 leading up to the Mayweather fight too.....But he looked really sluggish after he re-hydrated. Problem is, his speed looks fine versus his sparring partners and on the speed bag. But you can't compare or translate that to what it will be like on fight night. Hell, Floyd doesn't even allow his sparring to be taped by HBO, and Manny only goes 60 - 70 % in his sparring sessions while being taped for 24/7.

Bottomline, there is nothing of substance to be taken away from 24/7. It's a propaganda tool and it's purpose is to promote the fight....period.

If you want my honest opinion, watch the weigh -in tonight....you can take alot more away from that.

   Marquez bulking up has no relevance to his punching power increasing, except for occasional arm punches (usually ineffective and more for measuring an opponent) will be slightly heavier. I'm not a fan of 24/7 as it helps sell fights that are over before they started.  
   Mayweather helped build 24/7 to sell his low level competition fights, as you remember the first pilot was Oscar vs Floyd... and actually the only surprisingly competitive fight. They showed 24/7 when Floyd fought Juan and tried to convince people that Juan was a true welterweight. To get bigger and stronger and become a welterweight he (1) lifts rocks in the mountains, (2) visits a hyperbaric chamber, (3) eats raw quail eggs, and (4) drinks his urine.
1. Not using normal free-weights or machines but using objects are effective strength training methods because instead of isolating muscle groups, most unconventional methods require entire body efforts and balance. (Although this training is excellent as it stresses your muscles constantly giving them a good workout, this type of training has little effect on punching power.)
2. A hyperbaric chamber allows increased oxygen transport capacity of the blood and mobilizes stem cells from the bone marrow and increase organ and tissue repairs with increased speed. Overall though, unless you are suffering from slow recovery process (due to aging, genetics, etc) the benefits are minimal. Also, if you  consider the fact that oxygen accelerates aging, it is a self-defeating purpose.
3. Eating raw quail eggs has been a Chinese medical source that helps immune system and several diseases. It's simply just a pure source of protein.
4. Drinking your own urine is an ancient Indian method dating back 5,000 years ago and was used in other ancient cultures. The benefits they say are from boosting energy levels to curing cancer. Although no actual data has yet to prove any major claims, it does have some benefits on a minimal level.
frank the tank: Not sure about the injury as I haven't looked into this fight much as I believe it is still one-sided and not much to handicap. BTW- If you think Manny will win by decision, take the +225 to win 12 round decision. Also, Marquez is around +2100 to win by decision as you could hedge your bet slightly. GL!

my book has the fight at -400/+200 which was -300/+200 yesterday. by tommorow mid-day, i believe the line will drop to -240/+180 after all the Mexican money comes in on JMM as he has looked physically solid on 24/7. there is absolutely no reason that a line should be doubled at this low odds and will compress tomorrow to reflect the JMM money.

doubling of odds generally happens a +600 or higher.

YES & YES. Oscar looked good on 24/7 preparing for Manny but looked drained at the weigh-in. The weigh-in for Vasquez vs Marquez IV showed why Marquez opened -150 at many sportsbooks, and anywhere from -130 to -180, as Vasquez not only looked physically not the same, but he seemed not to have any focus or call it a confident strut. This is why many fights that I feel physical attributes play a larger part than boxing ability and boxing IQ, I wait until the weigh-in to bet 2 or 3 times as much as my initial wager. PINNACLE : I constantly make the point regarding 24/7 that they always will show insignificant information regarding the fight and it is suppose to make the fighters look like it almost even. If that was the case, you wouldn't need 3 to 4 shows of 24/7 to sell it!
    Weigh-Ins were very important especially for Heavyweights that had a known problem with weight (and defines their stamina and output expectations). Buster Douglas looked a lean 231lbs against Tyson. Only 8 months later he was receiving 24 million to fight Holyfield and at the weigh-in he looked sloppy and fat at 246lbs. I forget which commentator made the remark that it looked like Douglas spent all that money on steaks.
    I'm sure everyone remembers the outcome. What was more surprising was when he appeared on Howard Stern and I will quote a line from wiki "though years later he said on the Howard Stern show that he had walked away with $1.5 million after taxes, managers, trainers, etc. In that same interview he said he received $1.3 million for the Tyson win, but for the same reasons netted $15,000." That is just SICK!
   I learned later about Oscar when training for Manny had a southpaw for a sparring partner that injured Oscar's eye and ribs... that was Victor Ortiz. After one week Ortiz was let go as a sparring partner (story link). If I had that information prior to the fight I would have bet the maximum on Manny to win ITD.

   YES, indeed!~ Boxing usually has the highest odds ratio in sports (MMA also), not including props or futures as they have an enormous vig. I agree this would be the first time I've seen -400/+200, where it wasn't a future or an outrageous Super Bowl prop. In boxing -1600/+800 is about the average I've seen among most sportsbooks.
   From 1999 to 2004, there was a large disparity in opening boxing lines with offshore books. You can often dictate which way the odds will go and be able to catch a free roll or an automatic win. When offshore betting online was getting popular, you could catch a win right away. I waited until the last hour before betting Trinidad over Oscar, as I knew Oscar had already become a public figure (household name) after winning an Olympic Gold Medal, dominating his early bouts below and at lightweight. Then after two dominating fights against Chavez, the public was hooked. I remember WSEX.com opened Oscar -130/+110 and Sportsbook.com had Trinidad -140/+120, you could have free-rolled or split the difference (not 100% certain on each sportsbook as I didn't have good record keeping then).    
    The only problem with doing boxing bets is that you risk a large amount to win an automatic small amount as your money is tied up for 3-4 months, and people were still nervous as sportsbooks scammed and got shutdown often. It wasn't until 2004 that sportsbooks were stable and many were publicly traded corporations. Sometimes it was difficult in 2000 & 2001 because the only way for most sportsbooks was credit card and many people did charge-backs when they got ripped off or lost (and claimed they were cheated). Since U.S. had no authority, many credit card companies stopped use of offshore gambling as well as sportsbooks. If all was legal, and easily transacted back then, the only problem was having your cash frozen for 3-4 months. Often it was around every $350 to automatically win $10, but without risk.
   Also, different countries had delayed lines like CanBet -107 (Australia), Pinnacle -105 (multiple places then), and several sportsbooks offered specials on Friday or Saturday, typically for College & Pro Football for the majority offering -101 to -105. It was often safer to catch a middle with NBA hoops where Pinnacle was +108 at -4.5 and CanBet at -107 at +7. This way you had +$1 vig (50 cents technically because it is a 50/50 proposition) and 2 points for a pure middle and 1 point for catching a side (partial).
   In the 2000 Presidential Election I bet props at sportsbook.com and I was able to catch a free-roll. After the 2nd Debate, Gore was 8/5 favorite and I bet Bush. After the 3rd Debate Bush was 13/5 favorite so I hedged my bet. If Gore wins I break-even, if Bush wins I collect $250. I know it seems crazy and extremely lower as compared to my casino and local bookie betting when I was younger, but it was fun and many sportsbooks I used extreme caution. It wasn't until 2003 I was using large amounts offshore. At this time reputations were established and kept!

Ok, so some think this is a stupid way of betting this but this is what i ended up doing:

*$50 on Marquez to win @+500 to win $250.

I work in an area where there are a lot of mexican backers so I was able to bet the below as well, straight up:

$50 on Pacquiao to win straight up.

The way that i figured this was I'm betting someone else's money at this point. If Pacquaio wins then I will only exchange money between the guy I bet straight up with and my local. If Marquez wins, which is a long shot, I will only collect $200 after my paying my straight up bet. Makes sense right?

Thats what I did for tomorrow so that I can't lose either way. I only have the chance of making an extra $200 on someone elses dime.

I know its kind of lame, but its an easy out if it hits.

Single #231634790 (Placed by Web) (1125) Manny Pacquiao by KO, TKO, or DQ -160 Sat@11:00p
Competitor:(1126) Manny Pacquiao by Decision

jaime2309: You provided yourself a freeroll. If you could have bet $150 on Manny, then if Manny wins you win $100 and if Marquez wins you win $100! Regardless, you win $100 (unless you lose on a draw with your sportsbook, although not common). I'm assuming $50 was most you were able to bet on Manny.
Dustinmiller1: Is your wager Manny ITD (inside the distance) or Manny by KO, TKO, or DQ? I'm curious because you would lose on an accidental headbutt stopping the fight and going to the scorecards. Also, if the fight was declared a NC (No Contest or No Decision) you would lose under standard prop rules. I like your bet regardless, just prefer ITD for technical reasons.

Mayweather is twice the fighter than both of these guys.

You are right the size probably wouldn't help punch harder but I believe it would help punch resistance a bit. HE wouldn't get bullied so much and if he did it the right way he won't sacrifice his speed. That being said if someone put a gun to my head I would take the Over 10.5 rounds and also play Pacquiao to win by in the 7-9 round

frank the tank: I would have done a hedge bet similar if I had the same analysis for the fight.
     Unless Marquez suffers a cut, swelling, or is way behind on the scorecards and getting hurt, I find it very hard to believe Marquez would take 6 rounds of punishment and not be able to finish the fight. I feel Manny might knockdown Marquez 5 or 6 times before they stop the fight before the mid-point of the bout. Marquez has grit like Margarito, and I do understand Margarito is a naturally much bigger man, but I fail to see a late stoppage unless it happens like the instances I mentioned above. Overall your bet makes sense as you see it going late, but if Manny can stop him it will be after heavy punishment despite an unforeseen issue.


    Even though I've stressed my analysis I'll remind myself that Marquez is as tough as they come, he is a master technician, and mentally he really feels very confident against Manny. This won't be a Floyd safety fight, but a real battle with punches flying.
Just because my experience in handicapping tells me Marquez won't win, that doesn't mean he can't win!
I know both these fighters have much respect for the sport they've thrived in so I don't think we will see lunging headbutts, sneaky punches when your opponent is thinking about how to get out of this mess with the least amount of embarrassment, piggy back rides, leg scoop and slam or we can bring it back old school to 1991 when they really knew how to put on a show.
THE CLASSIC TILLERY KICKING BOWE, BUT BOWE'S TAG TEAM PARTNER ROCK NEWMAN ASSISTS WITH A REAR CHOKE HOLD AND BOWE THROWS THE OLD KENTUCKY HAYMAKER SENDING TILLERY FOR A 360° BACKFLIP OFF THE CANVAS AND INTO THE FIRST ROW!

Best bet for this boxing match is over 10.5 at +160...I put 2 units on it....JMM is a tough hombre!

ZOUK what do you think????

12 units(-300 paq)

2 units(-140) under 11.5

 

Even though you win the battle (the fight)... you must win the war (fair and accurate decision by judges)

grindstone: SORRY if I didn't get back to you right away, had some surgery thursday. Although I felt Marquez wouldn't compete as well as he did, the money potential always is first. I get criticized often when I don't pick a fighter and a unit amount, but I stayed off this fight. I would have been sick if I bet big on Marquez to win via decision, but I've learned many times about judges scoring in favor (nearly 99%) of the fighter who generates big money, and Manny is a MEGA-star! People use to wonder why Marquez had always been my favorite fighter and I tell them the tenacity, the skill and all heart (I grew up watching Evander at cruiserweight and he was that mentality, but not a master at measuring and timing).
BTW- Thank you for compliment... glad someone likes my threads. I stated previously as I don't do it to gain an entourage, but besides the analytical stuff, it's nice to hear interesting and entertaining stories from time to time.