My Biggest Boxing Play of the year (Arthur Abraham v Carl Froch)

The fight I have been waiting for all year is nearly upon us. Indeed this Saturday nights boxing could be the best night of boxing this year with Katsidis v Marquez taking place in Vegas. Marquez is in a different league to Katsidis as a fighter BUT he is not the same fighter he was 4 or 5 years ago and Katsidis's pressure style could pose him problems. Still as tempted as I am to play the underdog, I think Marquez's class tells in the end and he wins either by late stoppage or UD. I will be playing the over 9.5 rounds in this fight.

Now onto business. Arthur Abraham @ near evens is one of the best bets I have seen in some time. The fight will take place in Finland, and Sauerland are promoting the fight. IF this fight goes to points and I sincerely doubt it will, then it will be extremely difficult for Froch to get a decision. For that reason alone I am amazed AA is not -200. If this goes to the cards, Froch aint winning (ala Kessler in Denmark).

Stylewise, I think Froch is perfect for Abraham. He leaves his head out there to be hit and that is a recipe for disaster against Abraham. Froch has a good chin, but realistically who has he fought that has a murderous punch? AA has sick power in both hands and while I don't think he will KO Froch early, I think eventually his power will wear Froch down and he will get a brutal late KO.

I know some people think Froch can box on the outside against Abraham. I am not buying that for a second. Andre Dirrell, Froch is not. I have no doubt that will be Froch's gameplan. Jab from the outside and try pile up the early rounds. I am sure he will win a few of those rounds using these tactics, BUT Froch's biggest problem is not his jab (which is not a bad weapon) it's his footwork. The guy does not have the footwork to keep AA off him for too long. I think AA will start quicker than in previous fights (or he will certainly try) and his gameplan will be simple. Drag Froch into a war. Froch is too stupid (he lacks boxing acumen) to avoid this scenario (no matter what his trainer says to him) and he will play right into Abraham's hands.

I truly believe this will be Carl Froch's last fight. I think he will never be the same after the beat down he is about to receive. I would question his hunger (from interviews I have seen/read and general body language and demeanour. He has made enough money to live a secure life. He is a new father and I think deep down he knows he can't beat Andre Ward. Abraham on the other hand is a true warrior, he has better hand speed, better footwork, bigger puncher and harder chin. Froch lossing his 0 will have a serious effect on him mentally and I swore I would fade him huge as soon as this happened. Add to the fact, as far as judging goes this may as well be in Germany and this is just beyond a tasty bet.

Can Froch win? Of course. There is not a huge amount of difference in class between them, but at these odds and when you condiser all the variabiles that come into play for this fight, King Arthur represents amazing value at these odds. Take it....

Hi Mack,

where have you found this to be a pick em. I will open an account with this site just to play Arthur at these odds. I also agree that this is a big mismatch.

My site has Abraham-180

good luck

Melv

www.paddypower.com 8/11 (-1.35)

Eric you dont have anything positive to add to my thread stay off it..

https://www.paddypower.com/bet/boxing/boxing-matches/Arthur-Abraham-V-Carl-Froch-2124214.html -135... you will get on all the European betting sites...

thanks Mack- I will check it out tomorrow. also any lean on the over/under. my site has 11.5 (under as -105, over as -125)

my brother and I are at odds- I think AA knocks him out around the 8th, my bro thinks AA wins a decision-

any lean?

thanks for the site-

Melv

Mack I agree with a few things here.. first Froch holds those hands low against Jermaine Taylor.. his trainer had to beg and curse him out to HOLD UP his damn hands.. once he did .. he did much better.

If you have to be reminded to keep your hands up, you will be in trouble against someone like Abraham.

Also his footwork is horrible, many shots are off balance and against a counter puncher not good for Froch.

Froch's best defense is his OFFENSE but I've seen Froch dead tired in his past few fights, I  don't worry about Abraham's stamina as he is very economical with his punches.

Froch is at his best when he's on the attack, and he doesn't have ONE punch KO power, he's strong but not that KO power that could shift a fight in his favor.

Sometimes he uses his jab sometimes he flicks it sometimes he just paws with it so not really a good tool in the end for him.

I believe the only advantage Froch has is slight hand speed (early in the fight, he's very sneaky with some shots they come from weird angles but leaves him off balance).

I believe Jermaine Taylor exposed Froch a long time back, he was a few seconds away from a land slide victory.

Not only did Jermaine Taylor box his head off.. he also dropped him.  Froch has a good chin, got to with  his defense, but I saw Dirrell hurt him also.. so did Kessler.

While I'm not a fan of Abraham's style.. I do think he takes this by late KO or  points.

If you look at who TRULY wants it, Abraham is the guy, I believe he actually LOVES being in the ring and not just for the cash.

Froch has a beautiful woman and a child now... I don't believe his heart is in boxing... anymore.

He has steadily declined in many of his fights, finishing with aggressiveness and pure heart. What happens when your heart is somewhere else?

I like Abraham  in this fight also, will be parlaying it with maybe a college bball or football moneyline.

Good seeing you Mack and all the others!

I haven't had much time lately so figured I'd drop this down now, because my last write up on Martinez was a bit short.

Enjoy my friend :)

          

First I have a question. Who will be the judges?

I favor Abraham as well, but "biggest play of the year" - HELL NO!

Froch is not a pure stick-and-move guy but he doesn't look too bad when he employs that strategy. It's not like Abraham has fast feet. As a matter of fact Abraham opens himself up too much (often lunges with a wide 3) when he decide to attack. Froch has a big height and reach advantage (great sense of distance as well) and he also has the best stance to counter punch an incoming opponent. When you also take into account Froch's power there is no way you can count him out. This is probably my 3rd time saying this on Covers, but Froch's boxing IQ is sooooo underrated. If Froch had more speed, and ONLY more speed, he'd be lb-4-lb top 5.

Don't forget that Abraham gives away the early rounds. Abraham might say he'll start sooner but I doubt it. Also don't forget how good Froch looked in his war with Pascal - a fighter with much more speed than him.

I wish you luck Mack. I got money on Abraham too. I expect a close (maybe even controversial) decision win for Abraham.

IT'S GOING TO BE UNDER 9.5 ROUNDS .... A.A  WINS BY TKO  ( body shots) ...

BOL..

If pushed Melv I would play the under, but I would not be surprised if this went to points..A no play for me..

That's why I am one of the best boxing cappers around. Spotting the great bets, when no one else can see the real value. AA is a fantastic bet here. All the variables (mentioned above) are in his favour here. I completely agree with Rich (good to have you back bro!) Froch's heart is no longer in this. AA loves to fight, loves a war. This will be a war. Froch is not talented enough to fight the whole 12 rounds on the outside using his jab. You need footwork to do that, not just a great jab. He will get dragged in to a war and he will lose. Even if he performs better than I believe he will, he is not getting a decision in Finland on a Saurerland show. Yes there are 3 neutral American judges, but this is essentially a home fight for AA. He will have ALL the crowd support.

Who are these 3 nuetral American judges? Most favor Abraham by KO but I think Froch is very durable with underrated slickness. Abraham will definitely land some punches on Froch but Froch's got a ton of heart, balls, and most importantly a great chin.

Honestly, I don't know who the judges are. I know team Froch refuses to fight unless there were 3 Americian judges, so Showtime along with Saurerland organised this. I have never heard of Froch being called Slick!. I think too Froch has a good set of whiskers but remember Taylor (who is not a big puncher) had him seriously hurt. Pascal and Kessler had him in serious trouble. None of them punch like Arthur Abraham. Froch's 3 of the last 4 fights have been fight of the year candidates. He has also had some tough domestic fights (Eamon Magee comes to mind). He has alot of miles on the clock. Alot of tough brutal wars against quality opposition. Compare that to Abraham who besides the Miranda fight has pretty much had it far easier than Froch.

Froch has lost the aura of an undefeated fighter. He is a father, financially secure and knows deep down he can't beat Ward. I have no doubt Froch gives it 100%, BUT when you are dragged into a war with a guy you can't beat in a war then you are in a world of hurt. AA does NOT stroll here. Froch will go out on his shield as for all his faults he is a warrior. But I cannot see Froch winning this fight (even though I expect him to start the better of the two using his jab effectively for 3-4 rounds).. Mafo, I have been wrong before and I will be wrong again. But, I get most right and I LOVE AA in this fight. There is nothing you, or anyone else can say to change my mind. Froch is done. We will see on Saturday night just how done he is.

I've been on AA since the announcement, but seeing 2 of the top cappers on this site in agreement brings a whole new level of confidence.  Let's get it boys

Froch underrated slickness?

People tend to think of Froch as having horrible defense. Froch takes punches of course, but the combination of his height, reach, IQ, and shoulder roll style combined with the "think twice" mentality he imposes on his opponents with his power makes him UNDERRATED in the slickness department. He's no Pernell Whitaker, but trust me he's not Ricardo Mayorga either.

Mafo I couldn't disagree with you more on Boxing IQ. Sergio Martinez and Floyd Mayweather have a Boxing IQ. Andre Ward has a boxing IQ. Bernard Hopkins, Winky Wright, Joe Calzaghe. Boxing IQ's. Carl Froch does NOT!. He does not have the ability to adjust to an opponents style mid fight. Against Taylor, the problem was Taylor gassing not Froch himself changing things up. Against Dirrell he lost that fight. PERIOD. Any person who knows boxing will tell you that. Against Kessler, he couldn't put pressure on him at the end, even though his trainer kept telling him he was behind and Froch couldn't adjust. If Taylor doesnt gas then in my eyes Froch has lost his last 3 fights because of his inabilty to adjust.

Look at the Abraham v Dirrell fight. Dirrell boxed the ears off Abraham for 8 rounds. Unlike Froch, Dirrell is slick. Yet AA eventually started cutting the ring down and in my honest opinion he KO's Dirrell except for his moment of madness. Dirrell could only keep Abraham off for 8 rounds. Seriously with Froch's footwork and awkwardness do you really think he can win this fight on the outside with his 'slickness'..

Seriously you are making a terrible argument for Froch and the closer the fight gets the more confident I am. Froch will be dragged into a war (despite his trainers best efforts) because he doesnt have an boxing IQ. Froch cannot win a war with Abraham. He has been so lucky to stay undefeated this long. His aura is gone, his hunger is not what it was. This is a brutal KO waiting to happen and with the pro AA crowd if it goes to points Carl ain't winning. AA may not be good to watch but I don't think you realise just how effective he is at what he does. He makes you fight his fight (eventually). He can't beat Andre Ward but Froch comes gift wrapped for him. Trust me........

King A.A will force Froch to a backyard brawl this is going to be a WAR  forget about boxing science A.A will take him to the gutter... A.A TKO under 9 1/2 rounds.

his defense is not as bad as Mayorga but he tends to forget about defense when hes going on the offensive.

I like Froch personally as a fighter but the only way he wins this is if Abraham loses it himself. Abraham can at times throw very little punches and just hold up that high guard. In the judges eyes that may lose some rounds so hes going to be careful not to do that. I like this to hit the decision though. I think both guys are very sturdy.

I HAVE SEEN THIS FIGHT BEFORE , AA  WINS BY KO or TKO

First of all, great analysis.  It is very refreshing to see a strong write up like that.  Also, ignore EricLinny.  He just goes from thread to thread being a hater, as does that dannydemented guy or whatever his name is.

Anyways, I was leaning Froch due to activity.  AA is his own worst enemy and lets not forget he just received the boxing lesson of his life.  He is too passive, and Froch did a lot better vs. Dirrell than AA did.  I did not know that about the judges.  I thought Hennessey was co-promoting it.  Froch is extremely confident, as is AA.  Please help sell me more if you do not mind.

So Froch's boxing IQ doesn't match up with the fighters you've mentioned. Froch has certain skillsets that show me his IQ. He has a good sense of distance and knows how to throw the jab from different angles. He oftentimes uses bullshit punches to set up his hard blows. He varies his entry constantly. He's a decent counter puncher who does well with counter flurries. He goes to the body.

You say Froch gets into war because he has a low IQ. I agree he will get dragged into a war with Abraham but more so because he has to not because he wants to. Marquez-Diaz1 shows you that sometimes even ring geniuses get dragged into wars. A war type fight probably favors Abraham but with 2 power punchers anything can happen.

Froch has power, I agree Mafo. BUT when you look at his record against world level opponets he has 1 KO. That was a late stoppage against a totally gassed Taylor. Andre Dirrell said he wasn't impressed with Froch's power. I have no doubt AA hit's harder than Froch. I don't believe Froch has a one punch power as mentioned by Rich above. Froch SHOULD try box from the outisde. I think he will do this effectively for 3 rounds. The second AA connects, his game plan will go out the window. Froch simply does not have the ring intelligence/IQ, Balance and footwork to keep this on the outside for more than 4 rounds. This is his only chance to win the fight and in my heart of hearts I just don't think he is capable of doing this. I just can't see him KOing Arthur Abraham. This guy fought with a broken jaw against an Edison Miranda in his prime and that guy could hit...

Boxing can surprise. No way in hell I thought Sergio Martinez could KO Paul Williams in 2 rounds with just one punch. I have been wrong before but most of the time when get these hunches they deliver. I have put 33% of my roll on Arthur Abraham @8/11 (-135). If I am wrong here its a tough Xmas for me! If I am right, I get to spend a winter just after the new year in my favourite place in the world. The north coast of Brazil! If any of your guys ever want to have a holiday of a lifetime, rent a car in Florianopolis (avoid Rio and Sao Paulo very over rated and actually dangerous). Then spend 3 weeks driving North up the coast of Brazil, finishing off in the islands of Fernando de Noronha..So AA has a lot riding on him. A cold damp, grey, dreary winter in the UK or a warm summer in Brazil...Let's do it AA!!!!!!!!!!!!