Lets talk Ward vs Kessler...

So far the last few weeks live dogs havent been showing up..

I will be on Ward. Not only is their value in Ward I honestly believe he has got a great chance to win this fight. I will be back later this week for a writeup

Glad to see Im on your side.

Listen Dodger, Kessler is a good fighter and we have to expect betting an underdog means more then likely you will lose. I will only ever bet a good size wager on an underdog if it makes sense. And Ward as a dog makes sense to me. I am not going to just say pound Ward like some idiots on this site do. They say pound the dog and give no rationale to their reasons for it. I hate crap like that...Below I will give my reasons why I think Ward is a great bet as a dog..

On this board I have seen guys say pound Jermaine Taylor, Pound Cotto but their reasons for doing so were so wrong!!. I pleaded with people on this site not to back Taylor as he wasn't even a live dog! Now, I felt Cotto was a live dog because of his size but no way I was betting him for any decent amount because of the guy he is fighting. Therefore betting Cotto for a decent sum of money was never the right play.

You look at this fight and there are many reasons to bet the dog and when I see a list of good reasons to bet a dog I normally do.    I hate making bets I regret. Thats why before I bet a dog I outline my reasons for doing so. As I stated above if there is a list of good reasons then its never a wreckless bet. If it doesnt work out it doesnt work out but at least you have put some thought and rationale into your pick.

The reasons I am betting Ward are..

1) He is at home in Oakland. The fans in Oakland will ensure a special atmosphere. A smallish intimate venue can be more intimidating then a large stadium atmosphere.

2) He is an Olympic gold medalist and is undefeated. I don't care if he doesnt have a big name on his resume. Winning a gold medal shows me the guy is a out and out winner and can deal with the pressure. The fact he is also undefeated as a pro means he has no skeletons in the closet, no demons to deal with. I thought he was special when I saw him at the Olympics, I still do.

3) At 25 with no wars he is a just about primed for a world title shot as you can be. Ideally he would have fought a big name before this fight and that is my big concern. A few years younger, I would say defintely no and bet Kessler. Even if Ward losses this fight will have brought him on a ton. I think he is ready..-> https://www.eastsideboxing.com/ have a look at the youtube video. Great viewing..

4) Seriously who has Kessler beaten? We know he is a good fighter but he doesnt really have a big name on his CV. Beyer, Mundine, Andrade are barely world class. I think Andrade is SOOOO over rated. Mundine particulary over rated!

5) We know Kessler can be outboxed. Calzaghe took him to school for the last 7 rounds. Now Ward is no Calzaghe (yet) but he can box. He is an intelligent fighter and if he avoids fighting Kesslers kind of fight then he has a massive chance. If this fight is a slugfest Ward will not only lose but will probably get knocked out. Ward knows this too.

6) Kesslers inactvity and quality of opponents since losing to Joe C has been surprising to say the least. He has had more promotional battles then ring battles in the past 2 years (nearly to the day). That has to take the edge off your boxing. People say Ward is taking a big step up in Class and he is BUT so is Kessler.

7) The corners. If Kessler has Manny Stewart or Freddie Roach in his corner I would say this is a BIG advantade to Kessler. But both corner men are not well known. Sure they could be the best trainers in the world, but I for one feel good about not having someone like a Freddie Roach in Kesslers corner.  

I will be taking Andre Ward on points at a very appealing +330..Good luck with your plays

I have been following Ward since his Olympic gold medal run.  I was so impressed with him.  That was five years ago.  I have always wondered why he didn't fight any real competition until now.  I agree with you mack in saying that he is ready to take off.  I believe he can out box Kessler.  I really like the over 9.5.  I believe it will start out slow as they will respect each other.  Ward will be real quick as Dirrell was with Froch.  Right when this fight was announced I said Ward definitely has a great chance.  Kessler isn't a world beater to me.  I like Ward's confidence being in California in the biggest fight of his life.  His conditioning is always top notch and I think he can take this.  I can't wait for this fight. 

Ward on points currently +422 @ 5dimes

What does S.O.G mean in Wards name?

His nickname is Son of God.

I like Ward, he is very smart.

I agree Ward on points can be a good wager, chances are he will get a tight decision if the fight is close.

Son of God..


And to add on...

Looking at the Calzage fight with Kessler, Joe won by using a lot of movement, feinting, getting in throwing and getting out before Kessler can retaliate. I think Ward has similar reflexes and hand speed to do the samething..
And your right about Kessler comp, I mean Andrade is a walking punching bag and those other guys are B- to C+ fighters.. Good wins by Kessler no doubt but still, they arent Ward..
I think also think Ward beating Miranda in his hometown will help him greatly. Miranda is one diminsional as well but Ward dominated every round while Miranda brought lots of pressure. I was VERY impressed with the way Ward handled it and also impressed with his conditioning..
(I would love to see Andrade vs Miranda @ 168, fireworks)
Should be a great fight..

I like the over and Ward at +185
even if Ward losses I should come out even with the over prop because I dont see either getting KO'd

i like underdogs
who like Kessler here?
looks like all the wise boxing guys taking ward
so why he is priced that much?
some bettor should take Kessler also???

Kessler is a good fighter and deserves to be favourite. But should Kessler be on pound for pound lists and be remembered as an all time great? No, certainly not in my opinion. In sports people like to bet on a team/Horse/player that has a good track record like Kesslers.

Whats intruiging about this fight is that Andre Ward could be anything, He could be a pound for pound contender or just another overhyped fighter. He could easily be out of his depth with Kessler as Kessler is one of those boxers that does everything well. Abraham and Kessler will always give people tough fights but superstars they will never be. I think we all want to see a new boxing superstar and we are hoping Andre Ward is that guy.

Kessler is therefore favourite because of his track record and rightly so. Ward backers are taking a risk but there is no better feeling then backing a dog with potential and see him put in a superstar performance. These bets you lose more then you win so care needs to be advised but this is a great spot for a dog like Ward and unlike most Dogs in boxing this man is LIVE!

Of course betting on a dog you must be cautious.. But you can say the samething about betting on a favorite. By no means would I feel comfortable betting Kessler at -240 IN OAKLAND, Wards hometown.

Kessler will knock Ward out. his chin is very shaky and for being a guy who is so fast he is pretty hittable. The refs and judges won't matter in this fight as long as the ref can count to 10.

There's no credibility in being a mayweather fan.  Your best bet is leaving the forum, there's nothing of value you can add. 

Not to further this negativity, but for someone that's never posted a pick in the boxing forum, that's a presumptuous statement.  Please refrain from this sort of bashing, as there's plenty of that to be found in the other forums on here.

For the record, mayweatherfan is one of the sharpest dudes I've come across in my time here.  I wish he would post his plays (or at least drop in the threads) more often. 

Yeah he sure seems to be an angry individual for someone I have never even posted to. I'll drop by here and there. I think the Tajbert odds are appealing. I put 500 on him at +160.

I certainly wouldn't try too hard to talk people out of a Kessler KO. I have outlined why I am playing Ward, but I am well aware its a risky bet. No more then a 2 star play for me..

I doubt Kessler will knock Ward out.. Ward is too slick and savy defensively. Sure he can be hit, but usually he rolls with the opponents punches and sees them coming.. Shaky chin? perhaps but he took a few big shots from Miranda and kept it pushing. I think his chin is fine..

My pick is Andre Ward. He is not traveling, he is the most technically sound fighter in this tournament.


People say he has no resume, well he's a young fighter and has the TOOLS to beat Kessler.

Kessler has fought no one major either besides Calzaghe, and he LOST that fight. Granted it was a decent showing .. but the only named fighter he fought he lost to.

Kessler is a tough fighter with a good jab.. he has no true weaknesses good chin, decent stamina, great power.

Where this fight is misleading is Calzaghe was very aggressive and made the fight very easy for Kessler as that style suited him.

Andre Ward is a slick boxer, and has some pop also. He knows how how roll punches and also doesn't cave under pressure.

Only way Kessler wins this is by KO, so Kessler Fans or backers... take the KO.

I will be taking Andre Ward to WIN +175  (draw gets the money back, I chose win, not win ONLY) make sure your bet doesn't have a draw as a loss should be (void) 5dimes offers Ward + a draw as a win for +160  .. which seems like a good idea.

other small prop bets which are very good is

Ward on points-
The  fight does the distance
Only good value for Kessler backers is Kessler by KO.

I will take Andre Ward this Nov 21 st, which is also my birthday .. and Ward will deliver it as my present lol :)

Good luck fellas,
     

Rich your back! Where the hell were you for Cotto/Pacman!? Glad we are on the same side

I wrote my pick for Cotto/Pacman way in advance and a few days before... I disliked the fight (why they chose Cotto).

 I know why they did it.. but to hand pick a fighter who is clearly shot... just to raise another fighter's stock lowered my interest in the fight.

I wrote a billion times, Cotto is a shot fighter ... I like picking winners on fights that are competitive. I knew the outcome of the fight, it's why I picked Pac-man to win, but didn't like the setup of the fight (hand picked by his own promoter Arum) to fight Pac-man.

Cotto was on his way out, Arums way of giving Cotto one last big pay day (and himself) while raising Pac-man's stock through the roof to get a Floyd fight in the future.

What I dislike also is that us  fans will NOT see Pac-man Mayweather in the next fight, they will BOTH be milking boxing fans almost a bribery (Want to see Pac-man/Floyd) .. watch their next fights on PPV THEN you will see them later in 2010!

Good to see you on the same side also! Let's go Ward :-)
                                

Rich did you see the Mosley line -230!?? What you think of that. Maybe its bookie bait but this fish has bitten in a BIG way lol

Let me start by saying this fight is going to be a very good one. Two evenly matched fighters and both Gentleman in the ring.

First fight in a while that seemingly is flying under the radar, as this can be a very good fight. I know odds makers are making this almost 2-1 for Ward being a dog.

I know Ward won't look like a 2-1 dog in the fight. I know both guys are tough, composed and will give it their all.

Judging is the only thing that can POSSIBLY ruin this. I don't see that happening though.

This is what boxing is about, no trash talking, no bums in the ring... two classy fighters with respect.

                                               

How about Pac-man opening up at 8-5? As soon as bettors saw this the line quickly dropped to 7-5 ... The fight is NOT made but if the fight takes place in 2010  it's a VALID wager.

I cannot see how Pac-man would be favored I personally would have Floyd at -150.

Onto Mosley, at first glance it looks like Vegas is looking to go under people are like what fools only -230.

Realize before his destruction of Margarito .. Mosley was considered pretty much on his way out.

Not bum by any means.Just not the lighting fast Mosley) but let's be realistic... he lost to Vernon twice, and then lost to Winky twice .. he went 0-4 in fights .. then fought a washed up  Vargas twice and "got back ontop" by fighting Vargas?

The fight before last he made Mayorga look like a great boxer...

My pick would still be Mosley .. because what I've seen out of Berto is "Lack of Stamina" - and he's a one punch "pock shot" hitter then gets out of there or holds.

He is VERY hittable, it will make for a good fight but really.. Mosley was in the drivers seat .. after Margarito.. now he's fighting Berto?

Mosley is in a NO WIN situation, beat Berto, so what he wasn't much anyways but a prospect, lose and you are done or now a gate keeper at best.

 I don't see the logic, after beating Margarito and in the drivers seat .. he winds up with the least attractive fight ... and probably least amount of money.

Fight is too far away but I believe that line will JUMP as everyone has seen Berto a few times they have to see his stamina issues, and his lack of defense... I'm sure that line will go way up as the fight gets here sooner!


That is not a pick, I like to make picks closer to fight time need to see the shape the two guys are in, if the fight was tomorrow I would take Mosley.. but Berto does have great speed... that's his ONLY advantage.


                                      

I know we both like Ward, I was talking about the Shane Mosley line v Berto