HOPKINS vs. CALZAGHE winner?

I am probably in the minority, but I am already on Hopkins SU and by decision.

Bernard has the ability to get whoever he is facing to conform to his style.  Bernard will make it ugly and he may lose, but he will counter well all night and it will be close if he does lose.  This is not a mismatch or 3-1 fight IMO.  Plus, Hopkins backers have the GBP Vegas influence.

If I see a Calzaghe line south of -200, I'm making a big play. I don't know how you can fade this guy at the current price. I haven't bought into any of the post-Taylor B-Hop hype, and I'm expecting a reasonably close but very clear decision for Joe C. If bettors don't believe in Calzaghe by now, they're just never going to profit off of him. Bernard won't be working enough to win more than 4 rounds, and I don't believe he has the pop to hurt Calzaghe at this late stage. I need to go back and watch the Winky and Kessler fights again. I don't believe Bernard has ever looked worse though, and Calzaghe may have never been better.

Can't bet the over because of the chalk, can't bet the under because I can't see a KO, I would bet Calzaghe for the right price, but then again, I never bet against Bernard.  So like stated before, No Play.  But good luck to all that do...

I'll predict Bernard by 11th round TKO FWIW. 

I am not a Calzaghe non-believer by any means.  I'm actually a pretty big fan and believer in his talents backing him in his two closest match ups against Lacy and Kessler.  Like I said Hopkins may lose, but he will make it ugly and it will be close.

I would be shocked if you got anything less than -200 on Calzaghe, I think a lot of people echo the sentiments of pushing-it.

silcox, yes, Bernard is pretty damn old now.

FB, come on now we know there are people who think this fight is easy on both sides of the line. For every British homer there's going to be someone saying Calzaghe is a fraud who has been protected from Americans his whole career. If anything, there are more of the latter as this line has been moving steadily downward. Personally I feel these odds are made to attract B-Hop bettors who remember how off the odds were in his bouts with Tarver and Wright. I haven't made a play yet, but I would discourage anyone from betting either side in this fight because they see it as free money.

I am so stumped on this one. I have been watching film on both of them and I can't make up my mind. I have always thought that B-HOP is an extremely smart fighter. He always seems to find a way to make his opponent fight his fight.Calzaghe gots skills. He's got some sick combos and he's in great shape. I  would of taken B-HOP hands down if he was even 3 years younger.  I think I will probably take the bait and lay it down on B.

I am definitely not saying it's free money by any means, far from it.  Hope I didn't convey that.  I just think the odds were off that's why Hopkins has been bet down a tad.  I doubt anyone with half a brain thinks Calzaghe is a fraud, if someone is betting Hopkins it's not because they think Joe is a bum.

 

wow I didnt think any1 on here would Like Bhop. I think this is great value for him in this fight and think he will have a chance cuz the way bhop fights he can win any fight and has seen it all. where do you think the line will go b4 fight time ?

throw- That would depend on how long you wait. I fully expect to see a Calzaghe line south of -200 (at least somewhere) as more public money comes in for Bernard. I would expect it to close though between -275 and -300.

There seems to be a general sentiment on this board that Bhop at plus odds is an unpopular, or against the grain pick. I have to say that I believe quite the opposite is true. He is the fighter for whom the money has shown thus far. When I examine this match up, from every possible angle Calzaghe has the edge. His pressure and work rate will be a stylistic nightmare for Hopkins. I just don't think the betting public can process that at this point in time, this is a clear mismatch. I'm sure the books are pleased to have all of these Hopkins tickets early because they must know some of us will be backing Calzaghe heavily.

The line should be Calzaghe -400. Only because its a step up for Calzaghe to 175lbs and on American soil is why the price is cheap for Joe. Remember Jeff Lacy? Powerful and skilled up an comer in the ring... Joe beat him decisively over 12 rounds. Remember Jermaine Taylor? who actually beat Bhop got beaten by Kelly Pavlik. And Joe can arguably beat both Germaine Taylor and Kelly Pavlik. He would definately be favoured against them.

Also, the under 11.5 +280 is an excellent value. Based on cuts alone this fight can be stopped within the distance. With Bernards eye splitting head butts and Joe intense punch output cuts are likely. I put the fair line at +200 for the under.

That being said... this is boxing. Anything can happen. Small bets are in order here.

I like your way of thinking, good luck.

The word "skilled" should not be used to describe Jeff Lacy.  He is and has always been raw.  Powerful, yes, but not skilled.

  When have you seen Joe Cal tired? He fucked up Lacy for 12 rnds and didnt even look winded