Haye v Valuev

I have a funny feeling this will turn into the worst heavyweight clash in Living memory. And in Europe they want people to actually pay to view it! Styles make fights and I think these styles will lead to a seriously UGLY fight.

Let me start off that Haye should win on Points. But there is no way I am laying the chalk on a guy away from home in Germany, with a glass chin and giving away so much height and weight. Adding to that this is his 2nd heavyweight fight and first against a decent standard of opposotion. Quite simply there are too many questions over Haye from to back him at odds against.

Haye has a massive advantage in speed and overall athletism. He probably has the best hand speed in the division and this will cause Valuev all kinds of problems. I therefore see Haye winning alot of these rounds by using his hand speed and athletism to outmanoeuvre the big Russian. This will lead to theeee most boring of fights as Haye will be scared sh!tless to get hit by the big Russian. Such tactics will have us alseep by round 6 and I feel sorry for the idiots that are going to shell out money to endure this snoozefest..

At some stage however you have to assume Haye will get tagged. How he responds to this will be the only interesting thing in this fight.

So is there a way to make money on this fight? Probably not. I don't think there is any Value backing Haye at -200 (reasons outlined above). Backing Valuev doesnt get me particulary excited either. So I will look back at history and try pick up some prop bets and those prop bets are...

1) Haye to win the fight after being knocked down (obviously not stopped, standing 8 count for example). Trying to find a book that will do this prop bet. As the fight gets closer this prop bet should be available and available at a pretty decent price. If Haye gets knocked down, because Valuev is so cumbersome and so slow he can fend him off and escape the round and give him time to recover and gets his legs back. He should have a pretty big lead on the scorecard so that a knockdown shouldn't drastically effect the outcome of the fight. Its Germany though and this leads to my second prop bet.

2) Valuev to win the fight on points. This fight will probably go the distance. Even if Haye wins the fight on the journalists and observers scorecard getting the decision might not be easy in Germany. I think his negative tactics (Like Andre Dirrell against Froch) might not be enough to take the belt from Big Nic. That is available right not at +300.

These are only 1 star plays and I urge low stakes on this absolute mess. I expect these boards to be very disillusoned after watching this 'fight'.

 

For once I agree with you.  Betting this fight is hazardous.  Too many unknown variables at play, namely:

-Does Haye have the punch resistance to withstand the power of a heavyweight (and Valuev leaning on him for 12 rds)?

-Does Haye get shafted on the cards in Germany for what they perceive as "running"?  He will surely employ a hit and move tactic and win most of the rounds to the naked eye, but will the judges acknowledge his speed and flashy combos, or dock him for being evasive while Valuev presses the fight?

These 2 questions are big enough for me to stay away from this one altogether but if I were to make a play it would be on the over 10.5 at -160.  At least that way the scorecards do not matter.

I agree Mack, I will make it short and sweet... Haye needs to STINK up the JOINT to WIN. He will win on Points if he uses his great movement.

Evander Holyfield got robbed against Valuev, he was fresh on his toes for 12 rounds and out punched and out boxed Valuev. Evander not being able to fight in the states anymore he had to take the loss.

I can tell you this, if Haye exchanges he gets KO'd, but if he sticks to a boring game plan, 1-2 quick hitter and out he wins on points, unless there is a robbery.

Haye cannot afford to make this an interesting fight.

The over looks good.. this way you can escape the robbery...in case it happens.

I hate David Haye and his weak chin, he has never impressed me but he is light years ahead of Valuev in speed and agility.

When they say styles make fights, then why make this one they couldn't be  more opposite of each other even if they tried (that is bad for us boxing fans).

Only thing Valuev  has going for him is a sneaky jab, but he is very predictable.

I like the over in what should be David (Haye) 1-2 in and OUT quickly over Goliath (Valuev).

Good luck to everyone,
           

hmmm Maybe listening the guys above the Over could be a great play...will add that to my plays..

When have you ever seen David Haye running in a bad fight?

ALL the money has been coming in on Valuev and his price has tumbled!. Could be a pickem fight by the time they hit the ring. Going to stick with the 2 prop bets above and also bet the over 9.5 rounds +110..

If Haye is smart boxes clever this will be a snoozefest. If he decides to go for a KO this wont go over 5 rounds so the over is risky too because of this guys Chandalier jaw.

Basically guys I URGE caution betting this fight. Haye is a good boxer but when you have no chin and have been decked by Cruiseweights, are away from home,giving up a truckload in height, weight and reach how can you bet this guy confidently??

He should never have left cruiserweight imo. This is not a fight to invest money in as I feel Valuev is such a limited fighter. Ruslan Chaguev took this guy to school for crying out loud and he is average at best. I see nothing appealing here in this fight as I can strongly make a case for both fighters. When you can do that then you don't invest. The great way of making money is also saving money by not gambling (if that makes sense). Just don't but this tripe is my best advice..

LOW STAKES! Best of Luck...

The amount of money on Valuev is now insane..Its like someone somewhere knows the result of the fight. Sharks and punters alike are pounding Valuev. Incredibibly this could be a pickem before fight time with European Books. I have never seen a line move like this since I have been capping on boxing (15 years).

I have no idea why this line haqs moved like this. Just thought I would share this info..

The line move is significant Mack, but not the biggest in years. Valuev would have to close at a near 2-1 favorite to justify a statement like that. It is disconcerting though to see a move like that as I consider a large play on Haye.

Haye has to be the side for me though. I think he is in an entirely different class than Valuev in terms of skill, speed, and punching power. There are question marks around Haye, but I think that moving to heavyweight will actually be a big help to him in terms of stamina and chin, while most people seem to think that carrying extra pounds could lead him to tire late.

Haye had prolific punching power as a cruiserweight, and while everyone is questioning whether or not he can take Valuev's shots, I would point out that Valuev has never been tested by a big puncher at heavyweight. If Haye is able to crack him as cleanly and as easily as I suspect, I don't think stamina should be an issue for Haye, and I really don't think Valuev will be able to stay up for the full 12.   

This fight is now a no play. I can't get over this line move. Some gamblers will no think Haye is value. He is not. This fight is exactly what it should be. A Coin toss..I am no starting to side towards Valuev. Not because of a Hunch but when a line moves like this always take notice

hey if mack says its the biggest line swing in 15 years he should know, after all hes the "covers machine". i wouldnt try to disagree with him either or he might stop "helping" you.

its massive thats all I am saying..

I have just jumped abroad on the Valuev train..Choo Choo! This line move is too significant to ignore. Someone somewhere knows something. I can't remember a boxing gamble like this. ALL the money is for Valuev. He is now odds against! When you think Haye opened at wait for it -400!!! and Value + 240 that is simply an incredulous line move..Lets go Nico!!!!!

Don King has Valuev & the fight is in Germany (Germany is zupah shady imo) and they love Valuev. Haye's shit talking is going to hurt him getting a decision even more so. Never bet against Don King...lol.

O yeah....whats the live fight time? Should be getting close right?

Let me Spin made a good point about trying to visualize Haye boxing his way to a points win,  how often has he done that- once against some tough Euro dude named Abdoul in a 12 rounder.      Valuev has been momentarily stunned a couple times by Barrett and maybe another fighter or two.   Haye has the capability and desire after landing that first stunning punch to follow up balls to the wall and try and finish him.....A Haye stoppage win inside 6 wouldn't suprise because he's got much more firepower than anyone Valuev has faced. That's why playing the over is a no go for me..   Will he be wise enough not to punch himself out and leave  himself open to being overwhelmed like he was against Thompson.     I'm favoring fight won't go distance....  good luck , I'm looking towards some fireworks from Haye to start and to be more exciting than Mack is thinking..  

9:45 GMT. I will post in fight updates

This stream is working well for me

https://www.justin.tv/emmatv25/popout

#1:  Dawson wins by 12 rnd decision

Money Line -196 for Game

Money Line -1350 for Game

Money Line -105 for Game

Risking 260.54 To Win 564.56

Lets do this Valuev!!!2009 9:45 PM Money Line -1350 for Game #3: Boxing Fighting (Heavyweight 12 rounds - Arena Nurnberger Versicherung, Nuremberg, Bayern, Germany - PPV) Nikolay Valuev 11/7/2009 4:00 PM Money Line -105 for Game Risking 260.54 To Win 564.56 USD

Don't know what happened in that post. Really sucks you can't edit.

McNulty The obvious play is Bad Chad on points but any boxer is his 40's after losing the first fight is worth taking on for a KO. I will play Chad on the KO because playing the decision while it should win has no real value in it

Valuev is now the favorite at my book?

This stream is the only one I can find working now

https://www.iraqgoals.net/ch3.html

Coin toss scenario means 50/50 or

Haye -105
Valuev -105

If it was really 50/50 to your eyes how come you didn't pound Valuev at +180?

I very rarely make KO bets. Always the money line and sometimes an O/U. I'm not concerned about value as much as winning. I'm probably going to drop 13 on Dawson [moneyline] to make 3. Just waiting to figure out how much I'm going to drop on Fedor first. No value on Fedor at -625, but its free money if you follow me. No way in hell Rogers is taking him out. Its a lot of money to risk, but I feel that confident.

Tennis knob Capper your an idiot. I didn't pound 180 because this is not a fight to get involved in heavily as I have stated what? 3 times? I now have played Valuev because of the extreme line move. Not because I myself have a huge hunch on the fight. God your pathetic man