ESPN2 WNF's, FNF's, and other o5/11 actions:

Adrian Diaconu vs. Rico Hoye up on the Great White North, eh.

AD obviously gets the home turf edge, & this is a fairly close fight. AD is a blockly Lt.Heavy, RH is a tallish one, but w/ a mild Voltage edge. Experience is basically a wash. RH has the Resume`, Reach, and Size, edges. AD has home-court, & a pressue stylistic edge, that could help him on the NAFTA score-cards. So I'm leaning towards saying that RH will need at least a KD to get 2 scorecards to read in his favor up in Canada. AD can cut, but he is a pretty game customer, Hoye may be overTrained, due to the earlier postponement via AD dropping a free-wt. on his foot. So this one is an interesting to call. Styles do make fights, if AD works inside, & makes RH uncomfortable, he will prolly pull down the Decision, but if RH can hit AD hard enough, early enough, he can use his Reach & possibly pull the upset. Each fighter has only gone 12 once. I need to see the odds here 1st.

I like the heavy hitting home-townie on the u.card.

GLA!
bigeiii

AD-150
Hoye+110

UP-215
LOW+160

Any takers???


bigeiii

Here is what I had written in the other thread on the fight in case you didn't see it and don't worry Diaconu doesn't have a woman as his lead trainer like you thought initially.

Stéphane Larouche is actually a male trainer.  He also trains Lucian Bute (who I am pretty high on), an Interbox stablemate of Diaconu's.  Diaconu has the homecourt edge like you said and I like the way stylistically he matches up with Hoye.  Hoye definitely has the size edge as well as 2'' reach advantage, but he doesn't use his height like he should.  I don't know if you viewed Hoye's fight against 5' 7'' Montell Griffin, but I thought he got a gift decision that night.  I scored the fight 8-4 for Griffin as Hoye refused to let his hands go.  Hoye has always been overrated in my book.  Won't know for sure if I am playing Diaconu until the odds come out, but I am off the fight if I don't play him.


.75 of a unit on Diaconu (-150)


As you can see, I didn't weigh the play to heavily.  The odds offered were actually a little lower than I thought, I was expecting 2-1.  As long as Diaconu can get out of the 1st 4 rounds without taking a big shot from the heavy handed Hoye he will be fine, but that statement is why I went light here.  Talk about a dull week, the sport has a hangover from last weekend.  Looking forward to next weekend's action.

Figured that I would post my futures since some are fights happening next week.

.25 of a unit on Griffin by 12rd Decision (+567) vs Johnson
1.6 units on Over 11.5 rounds (-160) in Johnson-Griffin
1.45 units on Under 9.5 rounds (-145) in Pavlik-Miranda
3.5 units on Jermain Taylor (-350) vs Cory Spinks
.5 of a unit on Vidoz (+500) vs Virchis
1.1 units on under 9.5 rounds (-110) in Brahmer-Velazco
1 unit on under 8.5 rounds (+115) in Ulrich-Turchi
1.15 units on Huck (-115) vs Tokarev
.5 of a unit on Judah (+350) vs Cotto
1.8 units on under 8.5 rounds (-120) in Brewster-Klitschko


Pending Future Parlay:

1 unit to win 5.57:
Froch -610
Kessler -425
Pacquiao -600
Sturm -260
Mayweather -220
Taylor -350
Ibragimov -195

Should have waited, Diaconu down to -120 now.  Done for WNF, not playing the O/U, undercard chalk if offered, or props on this fight.

I took that AD-120; but barely. 1/10th of a unit Parlayed w/ Mr. Irish for next week & Nadal.

I'm not real sold on either side here, but my take is that AD's pressue style will back Hoye up against the Ropes, & even if AD does or does not do real well; I like him to get the benefit of the doubt that he is doing well up in the land of Elisnore Beer, eh. I've kinda backed into siding on a style here. Still waiting to see what else opens, I might play something else on this if I can find what I want pending any other WNF u.card action. Too bad you kan't play a Total & a Side together. As if AD wins, I like it to be via Decision.

GLA!
bigeiii

Don't know about Bigeiii, but I have.

Wow, I log back onto 5dimes and see that Diaconu has skyrocketed to -215 after even going down to -120 for a while.  I was expecting to see Diaconu as a 2-1 fave when odds were offered and they found a way to get there in a hurry.

HBO released the PPV numbers this morning I see........

 2.15 million buys and the PPV records go down, $120 million in PPV revenue is huge.

Another play for the week....

1.45 units on Samuel Miller (-145) vs Brian Vera

A couple more.....

.5 of a unit parlay on Miller (-165), Cotto (-170), and Anderson (-260) to win 1.27
.6 of a unit on over 9.5 rounds (-120) in Davis-Smith

I faded AD a bit w/ Hoye+49o ITD.
Then went back & added Diaconu+159 via Decision. Both w/ the lessor Cotto, & PMJr.

"Yes", I did actually see some footage of AD jus' last nite in researchig this fight OKSIB24_7.

GLA!
bigeiii

I added the LOW on Davis & Smith. Davis could crack at Cruiserweight, but he got cracked a few times as well. That latter part won't be any easier up at Heavyweight. TS has a bit of Power, & a sizeable Size edge here. I took the FNF u.card LOW as well. Took all of that & added it to AD ITD, I'm now liking AD a bit more.

GLA!
bigeiii

.75 of a unit on Diaconu (-150) 


What a fight and performance by Diaconu.  The "Shark" completely ate him up.

AD-120 wins.
AD ITD+256 wins.
Hoye ITD does not win, nor does AD via Decision. But that +256 put everything in the black all by itself.

AD did something I've not seen in a long long while 2nite. He caught Hoye w/ a Left-Hook on the Left-side of Hoye's face. No wonder such a TX sized sanguine gusher opened up. AD sure has a lotta name guys ahead of him at Lt.Heavy. & AD is fairly powerful for being so compact. It will take a strong straight shot puncher to beat AD when AD rushes in. (Dawson comes to mind here) But I'd have to give AD a long look vs. most of the other name Lt.Heavies ahead of him (in particular if AD could get one to come to Canada).

Clearly AD is game, ready, willing & able as Offense goes. I need to see more to size up his Defense; as I did not see a lotta head-movement, nor much other than a straight on charge. But when you can back your guy up, that's ok. So IF I were AD's handlers, I try to match him w/ a couple more fringe guys b4 I try to ink a shot at a Belt. But that shot sure does appear to be on AD's horizon to me. Color me Maple-Leaf impressed.


bigeiii

Shows how digging can (sometimes) yield hidden 411 gold. Took me until late afternoon to get a re-up on some info' for that fight.


bigeiii

Don't know what kind of last minute gold you found Bigeiii, but I would be interested to hear it.  I said last week it was Diaconu or bust here, I knew what I was playing when this fight was announced on the WNF schedule.  Hoye has always been and will always be a bum in my mind.  All he had was a "punchers chance" because I do give him the fact that he is heavy handed, having never seen Diaconu cracked before to know about his jaw and the fact that he had never had a spotlight fight before were the only things that kept me from going larger here.

1st part of the parlay cashes with Anderson's wide decision win over Magee. 

.5 of a unit parlay on Miller (-165), Cotto (-170), and Anderson (-260) to win 1.27

One last play for the week.....

1.15 units on Davis points handicap +24.5 (-115)

I don't think that Smith can stop him (unless his chin is completely gone) and this would mean that Davis would only have to win 1 round on all scorecards barring any KD's, plus of course Davis by KO would also be a winner.  I see value in the 3-1 odds on Davis, but for some reason I see him losing a 97-93'ish decision and am going with this instead.

IF that fight does go the Distance, I can buy you've got a winner, but I thought the rules were any KO beats the pts.handicap player on either side Fbs?

I'm leaning towards a Smitty & Vera Parlay. Not sure yet, If I don't get back in, I won't cred myself w/ that, as I'll just settle for the above Totals. For everyone's 411: this card starts at approx' 10:30pm Eastern, not the normal 9pm.

GLA!
bigeiii

The lessor Cotto took a Draw in Puerto Rico?!? Well; at least it did not cost me anything; & that's why I call him the lessor Cotto. Singwangcha might possibly have won, I'd like to see that, as taking 2 evens for one 5 point win as the visiting-team makes me wonder out loud.

I added each side w/ The Gentleman road-warrior, as I presume he is less close to empty than 'tel-Griff is, though I do kinda favor MG personally. (C'town in there as well; Series).

GLA!
bigeiii