Bradley/Alexander, Others

I've done a lot of work on the upcoming Alexander/Bradley fight. While these two are consider classic boxers, I feel this fight is going to be fought "in a phone booth" so to speak. Bradley, for whatever reason, feels the need to brawl when it isn't necessary to do so. Alexander is also more than willing to lay on the inside and trade shots too. I'm expecting an all action fight - exactly what these two continue say when being probed in the interviews I'm hearing/reading. There has also been a fair amount chatter between the two fighters.

I'm chalking up Alexander's somewhat poor performance against Kotelnik to a couple reasons. He was fighting at home, was riding high off the Urango stoppage, wasn't expecting to work that hard, etc. I still feel he is the better fighter of the two, and by a moderate margin. He has fight changing power, something Bradley lacks. He also doesn't get himself into spots where he isn't fighting HIS fight, where as Bradley seems to fight with his "heart on his sleeve."

I found some quotes from Bradley interesting..

"My training regimen is more so new school and I have incorporated strength training as of August." (Yeah, great idea. Potentially take away from his biggest advantages of speed and cardio for the false sense of developing punching power, which you can't find overnight.)
 
 "We are getting closer to the 29th and as that is soon approaching there is more intensity in all that I do and I also start tapering off my workouts. At this point in my training camp I feel like every day has a moment like in the Rocky films.  When I am sparring or when I'm running and just feel like I have pushed myself to the limit and can't go any more I start to talk to myself and
become the one that tells me to push it." (Wonderful time to get a respiratory illness huh? These quotes are probably just fight speak. Then again, they might be the hidden vigorish.)
 
Bradley was knocked down by Holt two times in their fight. The first knockdown was from an uppercut followed by a left hook. The second? Another uppercut. Alexander's money punch? You guessed it, the right uppercut. The location of the fight is neutral but you much closer to Alexander's home of St. Louis. A pro Alexander crowd isn't out of the question.

I am a bit worried that Bradley will bank rounds based on aggression alone. He might be able to get Alexander fighting backwards for a good portion of the early rounds. However, I expect Alexander to land the telling shots throughout the fight. If Alexander gets him in trouble, I expect him to close the deal. He appears to have that killer instinct that separates an above average fighter from an elite talent.

Another concern I have is headbutts. Bradley is becoming notorious for leading with his head, as evidenced in the Campbell debacle and once again in the Abregu fight. I doubt it is intentional, but it is a reoccurring theme in his fights. It is also an orthodox/southpaw matchup.

Alexander moved his camp back to Vegas for this
fight. In the interview with Fightnews, he mentioned the fact he didn't return home for Christmas, even though he has children. This type of dedication hasn't been seen from Alexander up to this point. He talks of sleeping in Tyson's old bed. He is training and living like the best doing it. Now is the time for him to become the best, and I'm expecting it happen this weekend.

So in short, I like Alexander in the fight, but I also like the "fight won't go the distance" prop being offered at +280 currently. All the necessary ingredients are in place. All action fight, Alexander's fight changing power, headbutt issues, biggest fight of their careers on the biggest stage for either fighter, chit chat between the two, and the list goes on.

My final prediction: Alexander via knockout.  I'll be playing like this...

Alexander +190, 10 units. Alexander via KO, +530, 3 units. Fight Won't Go The Distance, +280, 3 units.

GREAT plays, and an even better write up!!  I completely agree with everything you mentioned.  I also like that Devon is a southpaw, is bigger than Bradley, is younger, and has more of an upside.  Plus the line is money.  Great job.

  D.A  to win and  under 9 1/2 rounds ... good write up  !!! 

DEVON ALEXANDER BY KO

ALEXANDER   K.O

Walk not going to post my own thread as I have the EXACT same plays...Good luck to us

I dont see Alexander knocking out Bradley whatsoever.  This is a distance fight in my eyes.  Tough one to call but I dont see a KO either way.  Abregu is a bigger guy and a bigger puncher than Devon and he couldnt KO Bradley or come close to it.  Why will Devon do so?

Not seeing it.

Why didn't Berto stop Urango but Alexander did?  You don't base fights on size and one punch power.  Sometimes guys get hit with punches they don't see.  Speed can equal power a lot as well.

sleeping in Tysons old bed?    

Wow, a lot of love for Alexander by KO. 

I don't know if Alexander will stop Bradley, but i definitely feel he will beat him.

DA did look horrible against Kotelnik.  He has to be way better to beat Bradley.  Good luck on your plays..

You touched on one concern I have about Alexander, and that's the headbutts coming from Bradley.  I've seen nothing from Alexander that would lead me to believe he's the type of fighter that can deal with that type stuff.  Some guys fall apart when they are faced with that type of adversity (Juan Diaz for example), and I'm curious to see how Devon handles it. 

It's tough to see it when you consider what we have been shown by both fighters up to this point. That's why it will pay so well.

I'm happy to see that you're posting again. I was looking for your posts on the Australian Open, but I didn't see a thread. I know nothing about tennis and was leaning on you for some advice. Make sure you get something up for the majors if you have a chance. I would appreciate it, as would many others.

This is a tough fight, but I'm confident that Bradley is overpriced due to the "what have you done lately" factor and not the true match up between the fighters. I'm expecting a statement by one of these two, that's for sure.

Good luck buddy.

 

Bedbugs were a concern, but that took care of it from what I gather.

I feel that Alexander already has been in this type of fight, and that was his recent fight against Kotelnik. It was a fight he wasn't feeling great going into the bout and he got more than what he expected to receive from Kotelnik. While many look at that fight as a negative, I look at it as a positive experience he needed to have prior to going into a fight against someone like Bradley.

Bradley continues to say things that lead me to believe that he thinks he can bang with Alexander. He feels he can take the fight to him, without much respect for Alexander's power. He couldn't be more wrong. He is going to get caught in an exchange and get hurt. I don't know if HE will be able to respond. He's been in a little trouble before and he responding by coming on harder instead of backing off and regaining composure. He just doesn't know how to swallow his pride and hold on when necessary.

The play I'm most confident in is the "fight won't go the distance" due to the fact I feel Alexander will stop him, combined with the headbutt issues and the fact I feel both fighters will be landing bombs at some point. 

This is also the first time in recent memory that Alexander is going to be the naturally bigger fighter, as Kotelnik, Urango and Witter are much bigger than the weight they fight at. Bradley is somewhat small for 140, even though he did move up to fight Abregu at 147.

Danno, how are you viewing this fight? Also, I'm going to send you a PM. Check your inbox when you get a chance.

He did win that fight via fair scores of 116-112 on all cards. Kotelnik makes people work, plain and simple. He defeated Maidana, while considered a close fight, he did enough to win. He also knocked out Gavin Rees on his home turf. He was a victim of poor judging against Junion Witter on a fight in the UK. All things considered, he gives everyone he fights hell.

Out of Alexander's 8 wins that didn't come by KO, 5 of those were in 6 round bouts during his first 8 fights as a professional. The other 3 were against the experienced fighters Miguel Callist,  "Chop Chop" Corley and Kotelink.

When you consider those factors, his modest 13KO's in 21 fights (61.9%) would lead you to believe he doesn't elite power, but he absolutely does. The power difference between these two will be evident very early on.

I really miss your detailed analysis of fights. Do you ever plan on posting on a regular basis again? Is there a reason why you don't post in this forum that often anymore? I really miss your threads. I hope you consider coming back more often.

i'll be at the fight and on Alexander also, think there is too much value in the line to pass up. good luck

I just feel like an Alexander KO is too much of a blind faith wager.  I dont do those.  I wager based on logic.  Logic tells me this fight sees the end bell, and the over 9.5 rds being set at -500 is a pretty good indicator.  I wont take that bet, I will probably wager on each man to win by DEC.

Thanks Walk - good to see some solid guys holding it down, yourself much included.  Will try to be around more. 

Wasn't that the same price as the Martinez/Williams rematch? Don't we often see over/unders priced at 3/1 hit on a regular basis? Much of the price has to do with the fact that neither one of them has lost yet let alone get stopped.

Also, are you aware that some local Vegas shops opened this number at less than -200?

Yes.  I also think it is a lot smarter than to take both fighters by decision as that guy said he is doing.

This is just silly. If you believe the fight goes the distance, take the fight to go the distance. To wager each to win by decision and paying the juice on each is like saying "no I don't want $120, I'd rather have $100."