The 77th Primetime Emmy Awards are days away, and it's looking increasingly likely that those expecting surprises will come away disappointed.
Severance and The Studio lead the way and appear to be powerhouse programs.
Let's break down the key categories for the 2025 Primetime Emmy Awards odds and predictions ahead of awards night on Sunday, September 14.
Odds to win Outstanding Drama Series
| Series |  |
|---|---|
| Severance | -200 |
| The Pitt | +175 |
| The White Lotus | +2500 |
| The Last of Us | +2500 |
| Andor | +2800 |
| Slow Horses | +4000 |
| Paradise | +4000 |
| The Diplomat | +5000 |
Favorite to win Outstanding Drama Series
Severance dominates the field with 27 nominations—the most of any show—spanning performance, writing, directing, and technical crafts. Its second season, especially the finale “Cold Harbor,” garnered widespread critical acclaim and water-cooler-type obsession among fans.
As such, it holds a commanding lead in Outstanding Drama Series odds, with only HBO Max's gritty hospital drama throwback The Pitt listed shorter than 25/1. And the Noah Wyle-led program could emerge victorious here, as it performed extremely well and delivered on the hook of Wyle returning to the genre that made him after he was on ER for 11 seasons.
Still, Severance is more of an out-and-out phenomenon, while seasons of The White Lotus and The Last of Us were far more polarizing. There are only two realistic options here, and Severance likely proves books right.
Prediction: Severance (-200)
Odds to win Outstanding Comedy Series
| Series | |
|---|---|
| The Studio | -800 |
| Hacks | +500 |
| The Bear | +2000 |
| Only Murders in the Building | +2500 |
| Shrinking | +2500 |
| Nobody Wants This | +4000 |
| Abbot Elementary | +5000 |
| What We Do in the Shadows | +5000 |
Favorite to win Outstanding Comedy Series
With 23 Emmy nominations, The Studio is the most-nominated freshman comedy in Emmy history. The Hollywood satire led by actor Seth Rogen, who also produced alongside longtime creative partner Evan Goldberg, is another feather in Apple's cap as the streamer looks to dominate the series categories.
It's an extremely funny, well-realized show that understands the world it inhabits and successfully lampoons it while also paying homage to cinema and the film industry (the irony of it being on Apple is not lost on me).
None of the other series in the category had the same kind of imprint this year, and while Hacks is closest on the board, I doubt it has the juice to win. The Studio has also moved from -130 when nominations were announced to -400 less than two weeks before the show.
Prediction: The Studio (-800)
Odds to win Outstanding Lead Actor (Drama)
| Actor (Series) | |
|---|---|
| Noah Wyle (The Pitt) | -450 |
| Adam Scott (Severeance) | +330 |
| Pedro Pascal (The Last of Us) | +2000 |
| Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) | +3500 |
| Sterling K. Brown (Paradise) | +3500 |
Favorite to win Outstanding Lead Actor (Drama)
While The Pitt is second to Severance in Outstanding Drama, Wyle is the leader in the clubhouse for Lead Actor. Obviously, Adam Scott could grab this amid a Severance sweep, but I expect voters to reward Wyle (and The Pitt) here as recognition of the show's overall quality.
Prediction: Noah Wyle (-450)
Odds to win Outstanding Lead Actress (Drama)
| Actress (Series) | |
|---|---|
| Kathy Bates (Matlock) | <-330> |
| Britt Lower (Severance) | <+225> |
| Bella Ramsey (The Last of Us) | <+2000> |
| Sharon Hogan (Bad Sisters) | <+4000> |
| Keri Russell (The Diplomat) | <+4000> |
Favorite to win Outstanding Lead Actress (Drama)
Kathy Bates is the frontrunner for Outstanding Lead Actress (Drama) for Matlock as she winds down her acting career. At 77, she is the oldest nominee in the history of the category. Sure, it's a reboot of a beloved legal procedural, but she's injected it with life.
Bates has dominated other awards throughout the season, so it stands to reason that she has such a definitive lead. However, with Severance performing well otherwise, Britt Lower at +225 is an intriguing alternative, even if it seems unlikely. If there is a category where I could see a surprise, this is it.
Prediction: Britt Lower (+225)
Odds to win Outstanding Lead Actor (Comedy)
| Actor (Series) | |
|---|---|
| Seth Rogen (The Studio) | -575 |
| Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building) | +500 |
| Jeremy Allen White (The Bear) | +1400 |
| Adam Brody (Nobody Wants This) | +4000 |
| Jason Segal (Shrinking) | +4000 |
Favorite to win Outstanding Lead Actor (Comedy)
Seth Rogen is winning this. His portrayal of movie studio executive Matt Remick was lauded for its comedic timing and overall wit. He's somehow sympathetic while also being a bumbling fool desperate to keep his career while also helping usher great art into the world (or trying to, at least).
Martin Short is beloved, and Jeremy Allen White has won this award in each of the last two seasons, but The Studio is one of the most heralded new shows airing right now, and Rogen is the driving force behind its success.
Prediction: Seth Rogen (-575)
Odds to win Outstanding Lead Actress (Comedy)
| Actress (Series) | |
|---|---|
| Jean Smart (Hacks) | <-1400> |
| Ayo Edebiri (The Bear) | <+700> |
| Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary) | <+2800> |
| Kristen Bell (Nobody Wants This) | <+2800> |
| Uzo Aduba (The Residence) | <+4000> |
Favorite to win Outstanding Lead Actress (Comedy)
It would feel like this category is stuck on the default setting if Jean Smart weren't so unbelievably good in Hacks. She's won this category in three of the last four years, ceding to Quinta Brunson in 2023 when Hacks was not eligible because it took a gap year. She's -1400 for a reason, and she will prevail once again.
Prediction: Jean Smart (-1400)
