The dust has settled a bit in the wake of the nominations for the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards.
HBO Max is favored in the latest Emmy Award odds for both Outstanding Drama Series (The Pitt) and Outstanding Comedy Series (Hacks). But Apple has some interesting contenders lurking in Pluribus and especially Widow's Bay, which has caught serious momentum among its growing hype.
Check back often for additional markets and analysis of the 2026 Emmys ahead of its broadcast on Monday, September 14, 2026.
All odds as of 7-17. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
Emmy Award odds
Odds to win Outstanding Drama Series
Chalk rules. While some surprises will occur, they're fewer and farther between these days when it comes to awards shows. It's true of the Oscars. It's true of the Grammys. And it's true here.
If you want to go against the grain and predict something other than The Pitt, your best shot might be to invest in "no" instead of trying to isolate which of the other contenders will come through.
Ultimately, though, I expect The Pitt to prevail, as no other drama garnered the same amount of attention and fervor (mostly positive) as it did.
Prediction: The Pitt (87% probability at Kalshi)
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Odds to win Outstanding Comedy Series
Here is where we can go against the tide a bit, though it's looking less and less likely that Hacks will win even as it is in the top spot.
Immediately after nominations were announced, Hacks had a 61% probability, with Widow's Bay at 35%. That gap has tightened considerably.
Now, you can quibble about Widow's Bay inclusion in the category (it's funny but could also be considered a drama based on its horror/thriller elements), but it has generated a ton of buzz since its debut. Even though Hacks leads the pack in terms of overall nominations among comedy series, and had its final season, Widow's Bay is just the more talked-about show at the moment, and I'd take it at plus money with confidence.
Prediction: Widow's Bay (43% probability at Kalshi)
Odds to win Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
See above: The Pitt reigns.
However, a point of clarification on the above chart and table: While Rufus Sewell is listed at a sudden 25% probability (a recent 24% rise), that isn't reflected in the trading price. He is still four cents to win, so the probability spike seems dubious.
Now, if you want to read the tea leaves and believe that the field has a chance, follow our value picks' suggestion and take "No" for Wyle to win instead of backing Sewell or Mark Ruffalo. Otherwise, just let it go.
Prediction: Noah Wyle (93% probability at Kalshi)
Odds to win Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
For all the mixed reactions the first season of Pluribus garnered, that wasn't the case for lead actress Rhea Seehorn, who was widely lauded for her work. Zendaya may be the bigger star, but with Euphoria running on fumes, I doubt she cashes in on its final season.
Prediction: Rhea Seehorn (77% probability at Kalshi)
Odds to win Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Matthew Rhys has emerged as the frontrunner to win Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy based on his work in Widow's Bay. I see no reason to doubt that, especially since I've pegged the show to be one of the few underdogs worth backing above.
Prediction: Matthew Rhys (85% probability at Kalshi)
Odds to win Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Even though I'm fading Hacks in Comedy Series, I think it'd be foolish to ignore Jean Smart, who is just a powerhouse in the category. She has never lost for her work on Hacks, taking home Outstanding Lead Actress in all four seasons to date, and she'll make it a fifth as the final curtain closes.
Prediction: Jean Smart (88% probability at Kalshi)
