NBA betting goes into Day 4 of Bubble life as the league-leading Milwaukee Bucks and take on the Houston Rockets in what will be both teams’ second game in the seeding round.
The Bucks won and covered on Friday night versus the Celtics, while the Rockets needed overtime to get past the Dallas Mavericks. Sunday night’s (8:30 PM ET) matchup will also feature the league’s two highest-scoring offenses, which are averaging more 118 points per game apiece. As both teams hit the Over in their first game back, and with NBA odds posting a total of 241.5 (the highest total on the board Sunday), a high-scoring game is expected.
We break down the odds and give our favorite NBA picks and predictions for Bucks vs. Rockets on August 2. **video
Milwaukee Bucks vs Houston Rockets betting preview
Injuries
Bucks: Eric Bledsoe G (day-to-day), Frank Mason G (day-to-day), Marvin Williams F (day-to-day), Pat Connaughton G (day-to-day), Thanasis Antetokounmpo F (day-to-day)
Rockets: Eric Gordon G (out), Thabo Sefolosha F (out), David Nwaba G (out)
Check out our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The last four head-to-head matchups have seen the Under cash hit by an average of 8.9 points below the total. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Rockets.
Milwaukee spread pick
Milwaukee’s strength is unfortunately Houston’s weakness. The Bucks lead the league in boards per game (59.6) and defensive rebounding percentage (81.7%). Houston is a middle-of-the-pack team in offensive rebound percentage, but the Bucks’ boxout will likely stymie the Rockets’ second-chance looks.
Lost in all the Milwaukee defense talk is how legit its offense is. The Wisconsin Animalia are the most efficient offense in the league and coming off a game against Boston that saw them hit 60.5 percent of 2-point field goals — nearly three points higher than their league-leading average of 57.7 percent. They will also face Houston’s three-point "defense" that let Dallas shoot 21-of-49 (42.9%) on Friday.
The Bucks have a deeper rotation than Houston, which could benefit them early in the seeding games, especially after the Rockets had all five starters play over 39 minutes in Friday’s overtime win.
PREDICTION: Milwaukee -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
While we think it will take more time for teams to get their defenses back up to mid-season form compared to their offenses, the Bucks’ team defense is the exception. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the frontrunner for the Defensive Player of the Year (-500) and the defense as a whole is the second-best team defense all-time with a defensive rating that is one-tenth a point different than the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls.
With Eric Gordon out for at least the first six seeding games, Mike D’Antoni’s offense will have to lean on Russell Westbrook and James Harden as the Rockets can still climb up the Western Conference standings as only five games separate the No. 2 through No. 7 seeds.
Getting a ton of points against the Bucks elite defense could be a lot to ask, as Houston is 5-14 O/U versus Top-10 defensive efficiency teams this year, so we are riding the Under on Sunday’s lofty total.
PREDICTION: Under 243.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
With D’Antoni saying earlier in the week that they were planning to have Harden work away from the ball more in the upcoming weeks, the scheme is putting the ball in the hands of Westbrook to run the offense with "The Beard" working off and setting the screens.
This allows Westbrook to get some easier takes to net off the screen and also rack up a few more assists in the process.
On Friday, Westbrook didn’t have his best night shooting, going 13 for 30, but the star guard added 11 rebounds to go with eight assists. The octet of helpers was a six-game high in that category and even against a tough Milwaukee defense we like the secondary categories to keep rolling.
PREDICTION: Russell Westbrook Over 15.5 assists and rebounds (-122)
Bucks vs Rockets betting card
- Milwaukee -3.5 (-110)
- Under 243.5 (-110)
- Russell Westbrook Over 15.5 assists and rebounds (-122)
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