Three stats for NBA betting success during season restart

Jun 24, 2020 |
Three stats for NBA betting success during season restart
The Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs will be among the teams to keep an eye on for point-spread value when NBA betting resumes.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
The Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs will be among the teams to keep an eye on for point-spread value when NBA betting resumes.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

NBA betting is inching closer to a restart at the end of July, even with COVID-19 cases growing rapidly in Florida, where the league plans to complete the 2019-20 schedule. 

The current NBA restart schedule sees teams back on the court for regular season play between July 30 and August 14, with a possible play-in series scheduled for August 15-16 and the playoffs tipping off August 16.

This has us thinking about our NBA picks and predictions, and which teams are best suited for this season’s sudden restart. Given the frantic pace of play and neutral-court setup, these three stats could hold the key to NBA betting success when the Association resumes:

Bench scoring

Teams will need to get in shape quickly and contend with a packed calendar, playing every other night to wrap the eight-game regular season. And then come the playoffs. 

Some playoff-bound teams may lean more on their subs than others, and with likely injuries (and possible COVID-19 cases) taking their toll, reserves could be the difference between winning and losing your NBA picks and parlays.

These are the top-scoring benches competing in the NBA restart:

Team Bench PPG,% of Offense
Los Angeles Clippers 51.5, 44%
Washington Wizards 49.6, 43%
San Antonio Spurs 45.1, 40%
Memphis Grizzlies 41.4, 37%
Miami Heat 41.3, 37%
 

Turnover percentage/Points off turnovers

If you bring the season to a screeching halt then ask guys to start back up again in a few months, within a foreign environment, things could get ugly. 

Any flow or chemistry cooked up during the season has likely gone cold, so limiting turnovers and capitalizing on opponents’ mistakes could be huge when the NBA restarts in late July.

These are the top turnover percentages of teams competing in the NBA restart:

Team TO%
San Antonio Spurs 12.1%
Dallas Mavericks 12.7%
Orlando Magic 12.7%
Portland Trail Blazers 12.8%
Indiana Pacers 13.2%

As well, here are the top points off turnovers:

Team PPG off TOs
Toronto Raptors 19.6
Los Angeles Lakers 18.9
Washington Wizards 18.8
Phoenix Suns 18.7
Houston Rockets 18.5

Road effective field goal percentage

There’s no home-court edge in this NBA restart, so teams will need to get settled into their foreign and empty surroundings. Shooting in a smaller venue is sometimes easier, versus the range of depth in cavernous arenas, so we could see strong-shooting teams excel. 

If we’re looking for which teams could adjust quickest to the setup in Orlando, and therefore provide some added value out of the gates, the top road shooting clubs are a good start. These are the best teams in road effective field goal percentage:

Team Road EFG%
Utah Jazz* 55.4%
Dallas Mavericks 55.0%
Los Angeles Lakers 55.0%
Houston Rockets 54.4%
Milwaukee Bucks 54.1%

*Jazz will be without leading 3-point shooter Bojan Bogdanovic (wrist injury).

 

Teams to watch

Given these three categories above, we see a few teams bubbling up to the top of the potential NBA point-spread picks. 

The two sleeper teams to keep an eye on as the season resumes are the Spurs and Wizards (although the Wiz will be without top reserve Davis Bertans). Neither one is expected to make the postseason and will be an underdog almost every night, at least to start the schedule. Despite their shortcomings, it may be tough to ignore all those points.

Another NBA team that could provide extra point-spread pop (given the above stats) is Dallas, which sits seventh in the West and currently owns the best offensive rating in NBA history. The Mavericks (35-29-3 ATS) don’t have too much to worry about behind them but do have a chance to improve their postseason position, only four games back of the Clippers in the No. 2 spot.  

Where can I bet NBA Odds?

Many online books and casinos offer bets on NBA odds and props. Check out the best sportsbooks available where you live.

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