UFC 251 betting: Usman vs Masvidal public & sharp bets, odds moves

UFC betting is back on the odds board in a big way, heading to Fight Island in Abu Dhabi for Saturday night’s UFC 251. With the removal of Gilbert Burns (illness), the evening is now topped by a much-anticipated main event of Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal

Oddsmakers from multiple sportsbooks talked UFC 251 betting. Covers will update this action report with sharp bets, public play and UFC 251 odds moves, up through the main card’s 10 p.m. ET Saturday start.

Who are people betting to win Usman vs Masvidal?

UPDATE 9:30 P.M. ET: With the main card about to get underway, Circa Sports has Usman -290 and Masvidal +250. "We currently have the best market price on Masvidal," risk manager Nick Kalikas said. "Ticket count is still coming in at about a 10/1 ratio on Masvidal, but the sharper/larger wagers are still coming in more on Usman. As it stands right now, we need Usman small. We’re taking $25,000 limit bets right now on this fight from all players. We’re positioning ourselves to need Usman by start of fight for a fair amount." 

UPDATE 8:15 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Less than two hours before the five-bout main card begins, BetMGM's Bellagio sportsbook in Las Vegas took six $100,000 bets, including two in this fight: the first on Masvidal +200 to win the bout, for a potential profit of $200,000; the second at -175 on the fight not going the full five rounds, to win $57,142. In fact, BetMGM in Nevada is flooded with Masvidal money. "It's 5/1 tickets on Masvidal, and it's approaching 5/1 money as well," Mirage sportsbook supervisor Scott Shelton said, noting Usman is -250. "It's been going down all day. We went as low as -240, but we've taken some sharp money to go back to -250. Right now, we really need Usman."

UPDATE 6:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Said Alan Berg, senior oddsmaker for Caesars Entertainment sportsbooks: "Usman-Masvidal action has been fantastic. Tickets 2/1 Masvidal, and we will need Usman without a doubt." Usman is currently -255 to Masvidal's +215.

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET SATURDAY: As the early prelims of UFC 251 get underway, PointsBet USA is bracing for a big night of MMA betting. Patrick Eichner, director of communications, said the card is on track to match or beat the UFC 246 card led by Conor McGregor-Donald Cerrone, the highest-bet UFC card in PointsBet USA's brief history. Usman opened -300 and is currently -260, with Masvidal correspondingly going from +230 to +200. It's two-way action on straight bets, with Masvidal getting 52 percent of tickets and Usman taking 56 percent of money.

UPDATE 3:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: The betting pendulum is finally starting to swing at CG Technology sportsbooks in Las Vegas. "The fight has only been up for six days, but the action has been outstanding," CG Tech risk analyst Dave Sharapan said. "We opened Usman -270, which was high. All the early money on Masvidal drove it down to Usman -210. We're just starting to go back up today, currently Usman -230." Still, the book is way heavy to Masvidal, currently +195, despite an $11,250 bet on Usman -225 this morning. "The amount of parlays going to Masvidal is nuts. Straight bets and parlays are both about 80 percent on Masvidal. Biggest decision of the day, and it's not even close."

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY: It's one-way action on UFC 251 odds at William Hill US. "All Masvidal," director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. "We opened Usman -280/Masvidal +240, we're way down now, to -220/+190. A ton of money on Masvidal." The underdog is bagging 86 percent of tickets and 78 percent of money bet, including a $10,000 wager at +220, for a potential win of $22,000.

UPDATE 7:45 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Usman is a -250 favorite on the UFC 251 odds board at DraftKings Sportsbook, but the +200 underdog Masvidal is seeing the bulk of action thus far. Masvidal is drawing 57 percent of tickets and 67 percent of dollars. Masvidal is also seeing significant action on the method-of-victory prop of him winning by knockout, technical knockout or disqualification, at a price of +275.

UPDATE 10:45 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Caesars sportsbooks are prepping for monster betting on UFC 251 odds, according to senior sports trader Rex Beyers. "Just by looking at the charts as of Wednesday evening, the handle for UFC 251 is going to be through the roof on Saturday," Beyers said. Usman is -250 at Caesars, with Masvidal at +210. "We've taken a good bit of Masvidal money, but that's OK.  I like the favorite pretty good, and if (Caesars senior oddsmaker) Alan Berg agrees, then we'll likely try to need the favorite unless the market tells us otherwise."

UPDATE  8 P.M. ET TUESDAY: Circa Sports opened Usman -290 and Masvidal +245 on Sunday, and that's where those UFC 251 odds stood Tuesday evening. "We've seen some sharp and public action coming in on Masvidal. The action coming in on Usman has been mostly sharp," risk supervisor Nick Kalikas said. "Ticket count is still coming in at about a 10/1 ratio on Masvidal, but the larger wagers are coming in more so on  Usman. Overall, we're pretty even on this fight as it stands now." Kalikas said bet limits rise from $5,000 to $10,000 Wednesday and will be "at least $25,000" by Saturday.

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Originally, Usman was to face Burns in UFC 251. Although the new matchup only came together this past weekend, The SuperBook pointed to it happening for months. Coombs said his shop posted Usman vs. Masvidal odds on Jan. 31, with a caveat that the fight must take place by July 31, 2021.

Usman opened -260 and Masvidal +220, and the underdog has since carried the day at The SuperBook, though the price is going the opposite direction.

“Since we’ve opened it until now, we’ve seen mostly Masvidal money, despite this line climbing up on Usman,” Coombs said of action on the welterweight title bout. “The current line is Usman -280/Masvidal +240.”

Who are people betting to win Volkanovski vs Holloway?

UPDATE 9:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: At Circa Sports, Alexander Volkanovski is -215 and Max Holloway +185 in the UFC 251 co-main event. "More straight bets coming in on Holloway today," Kalikas said. "Volkanovski still seeing more parlay love from our bettors. As it stands right now, we need Volkanovski, but not a very big decision for us yet."

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Two more of those six $100,000 bets landed on this bout: on Max Holloway to win and the fight not going the distance. "It's 5/1 money on Holloway and 4/1 tickets," Shelton said. "A lot of 'dogs tonight." Holloway is a +175 pup and Alexander Volkanovski a -215 favorite.

UPDATE 6:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Caesars sportsbooks have Alexander Volkanovski -230 and Max Holloway +190. Berg indicated underdog play in this bout, as well, along with the Petr Yan-Jose Aldo fight that precedes it. "Plenty of 'dog parlays with the three title underdogs could make this interesting, if Holloway and Aldo both pull upsets leading to Masvidal."

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET SATURDAY: This title bout is also seeing two-way play at PointsBet USA, with -225 favorite Alexander Volkanovski landing 54 percent of handle, while +175 underdog Max Holloway takes 51 percent of tickets.

UPDATE 3:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: The underdog Max Holloway saw early money in this bout, as well, in a line that's bounced around a bit and is currently Alexander Volkanovski -200/Holloway+175 at CG Tech books. "We opened Volkanovski -200 two weeks ago, took a few limit plays on Holloway and got down to -185 at one point," Sharapan said. "We took a respected wager at -190 and got back to a high of -220 on Volkanovski. The only fighter with more tickets than Holloway is Masvidal. The public is parlaying both 'dogs as if they know the result. And if they both win, along with Jose Aldo (vs Petr Yan), that three-'dog parlay pays 25/1."

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY: It's underdog play carrying the day in this bout, as well, with Max Holloway taking the bulk of the money against Alexander Volkanovski. William Hill US opened Volkanovski -240/Holloway +200 and is now at -210/+180. "All the money is for Holloway," Bogdanovich said. "We're gonna have to knock down one of those 'dogs. The public is taking the big plus." Among the bets on Holloway is a $5,000 play at +185, to win $9,250.

UPDATE 7:45 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Alexander Volkanovski is -230 chalk to Max Holloway's +185 price at DraftKings, in a co-main event drawing two-way action. Holloway is landing 58 percent of tickets and 56 percent of dollars, with Holloway is seeing 42 percent of bets and 44 percent of the money.

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET TUESDAY: Alexander Volkanovski is -225 chalk at Circa Sports, but +195 underdog Max Holloway is drawing interest. "More straight bets coming on Holloway, at about a 5/1 ticket-count ratio," Kalikas said. "Volkanovski is seeing more parlay love from our bettors. As it stands right now, we need Volkanovski, but not a very big decision for us yet."

Alexander Volkanovski opened -190 and stretched to -240 at the SuperBook, with Max Holloway now +200. The featherweight title bout is a rematch from December’s UFC 245, at which Volkanovski won a five-round unanimous decision.

“Not a crazy amount of handle on this fight. We have seen some two-way action,” Coombs said. “As we get closer to the fight, I can see this being one of the heavier-bet fights. It looks like we had a few bets at Volkanovski -190.

“The last time these two fought, Volkanovski had more volume than Holloway. The steam on the line is probably moving because of what people saw from that fight.”

Who are people betting to win Aldo vs Yan?

UPDATE 9:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Petr Yan is running -260 at Circa Sports, with Jose Aldo a +220 underdog. "More straight bets coming in on Yan today," Kalikas said. "We now need Aldo. Expecting to get some buyback on Aldo by fight time."

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Petr Yan is a -240 favorite at PointsBet USA and is landing 72 percent of tickets and 81 percent of money bet.

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Bogdanovich succinctly described Petr Yan-Jose Aldo featherweight title bout: "A zillion parlys on Yan over Aldo. A ton."

UPDATE 7:45 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Petr Yan, a -250 favorite at DraftKings, is drawing 60 percent of the tickets and 68 percent of the money against +200 underdog Jose Aldo.

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET TUESDAY: Petr Yan is running -235 to Jose Aldo's +200 at Circa Sports. "Bettors are leaning more toward Aldo overall," Kalikas said. "More straight and parlay action coming in on the former featherweight champ. I think we'll see some bigger action come back in on Yan as we get closer to fight day."

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The SuperBook opened Petr Yan -300/Jose Aldo +250, and Coombs said the line steamed down to Yan -240/Aldo +200 for the bantamweight title fight.

“We decided to open up a little high on the market, because I’m high on Yan,” Coombs said. “He’s a fighter who throws a lot of volume. He doesn’t get hit a lot and can wrestle. Our liability as of now is parlay money on Yan. This isn’t surprising, considering there are a few large favorites on the card. The public loves parlaying all the favorites.”

Other UFC 251 betting action

UPDATE 4:40 P.M. ET SATURDAY: The matchup of huge favorite Amanda Ribas and big underdog Paige VanZant is seeing loads of CG Technology bettors playing the pup. "This is so unusual for our books," Sharapan said. "We opened Ribas -800 and followed the market up to -900, because Ribas was the throw-in favorite on a lot of early parlays. As for straight bets, it has been nothing but 'dog money. And I mean almost nothing. Literally less than $100 in straight bets on Ribas.We are currently -750 on Ribas and can't get any straight-bet money on her. There are actually more tickets on Ribas on parlays, but the book will be rooting for her, no doubt."

UPDATE 10:45 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: As The SuperBook's Coombs noted Monday, Paige VanZant is a popular UFC figure. That's proving true at Caesars sportsbooks as well, despite VanZant being a hefty +650 underdog against Amanda Ribas, a -1,000 favorite. Said Beyers: "The public can't get enough of Paige VanZant, which isn't a surprise given her reputation and the price you can get on her, even though it seems on paper that she has little chance of winning."

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET TUESDAY: Kalikas said the Volkan Oezdemir-Jiri Prochazka bout was getting "a decent amount of attenttion" at Circa Sports. "We've had this line up since June 18, and it has been steady two-way action for us ever since. I opened the line Oezdemir -160, it was bet down to -150, and now it's back to -166, with sharps on both sides."

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Coombs pointed to the two women’s matchups that open the five-bout main card for UFC 251: Amanda Ribas vs. Paige VanZant and Jessica Andrade vs. Rose Namajunas.

“Vanzant-Ribas is a big draw. VanZant is sort of a celebrity in the UFC. She’s been on Dancing With the Stars and has a large social media following, as well,” Coombs said. “But VanZant is fighting a very tough opponent in Amanda Ribas, who has gone up against solid opponents since joining the UFC and has looked very impressive."

“The current line is Ribas -900/VanZant +600. Like the Yan-Aldo fight, we have seen parlay money on the favorite.”

Andrade claimed a TKO win over Namajunas at UFC 237 in May 2019, but Namajunas is the -200 favorite here, with Andrade +175.

“In their previous fight, Namajunas was out-striking Andrade, until Andrade incorporated her wrestling and ended up TKO-ing Namajunas,” Coombs said. “So far, the action has been on Andrade, which isn’t surprising, considering she won the last time they fought.”

What are the betting odds for UFC 251?

Odds courtesy of SuperBook.

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