Teofimo Lopez vs. Pedro Campa is scheduled for 12 rounds in the junior welterweight division with the bout taking place at the Resorts World Casino in Las Vegas this Saturday.
Former unified lightweight champion Lopez is hoping to rebound after his first career loss and almost nine months of inactivity, and tough longshot Campa hopes to spoil his return party.
Lopez, who is making his debut at junior welterweight, is a commanding -2500 favorite. Campa, fighting only for the second time outside of Mexico, is a +950 underdog.
Here are my best boxing picks and predictions for Lopez vs. Campa on August 13.
Teofimo Lopez vs Pedro Campa odds
|Method of victory||Teofimo Lopez||Pedro Campa|
|Win by KO, TKO or DQ||-330||+1,400|
|Win by decision||+270||+2,500|
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of August 10, 2022.
Teofimo Lopez vs Pedro Campa betting predictions
Picks made on August 10. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Teofimo Lopez vs. Pedro Campa betting preview
The last time we saw Lopez in the ring, he was knocked down and dropped a decision to George Kambosos in one of 2021’s biggest upsets. The Kambosos fight was plagued with a myriad of issues and delays. Still, Lopez opted to forgo a rematch and leave the lightweight division behind in hopes of establishing himself at junior welterweight.
Should Lopez recapture the form and potential he flashed at lightweight, he’s no worse than the second-best fighter in the division behind Josh Taylor. Thus far, Lopez has displayed an advanced skill set and supreme confidence as he continues to box, fight and move with an apparent size advantage at lightweight.
There was a reason Vasily Lomachenko chose not to engage him for seven rounds in their fight, as he knew he wasn’t hurting Lopez and wouldn’t dare trade with him. A trip up the scales and time away from the ring should energize Lopez again, and he’ll aim to impress in his junior welterweight debut.
Pedro Campa is unknown to casual fight fans, but the scrappy Mexican has compiled a 34-1 record against regional opposition ahead of his first major fight. Three of his last five bouts have come by knockout and have remained relatively active.
Campa has demonstrated respectable skills (clearly better than the club fighters he faces in Mexico), but nothing suggests he’s ready for the big time. He has a few decent wins against Aaron Herrera and Carlos Sanchez Vasquez, but it's nothing that prepares him for the class he’ll face in Lopez.
If anything, he’s tough and aggressive, and Lopez will have to work off some ring rust which gives Campa a small window to establish his offense. We fully expect Lopez to come alive after giving up the first three rounds to feel out his opponent and shake off the rust.
There is always the inherent risk that Lopez might pick an opponent too busy or awkward for his return bout, but Campa perfectly fits the mold of a bounce-back opponent.
Teofimo Lopez vs. Pedro Campa boxing prediction and best bet
Prediction: Lopez ML
Make no mistake; there are no traps to be found here. Campa is the right style for Lopez to shine against, and nothing short of a biblical disaster will be needed for him to score an upset.
Ring rust will be a factor, but Lopez will take the early rounds to see how he feels at the weight and might be more active when he does decide to go on offense. Feeling that Campa is going to come at him to force a fight, he’ll be willing to counter punch and operate on the outside while he warms his engine up.
Despite the lack of quality on his record, Campa can punch, and Lopez might cut the act short once he gets caught by a shot he's not expecting. All roads lead to Lopez coming out on top here.
Pick: Lopez moneyline (-2,500 at DraftKings)
Comeback fights like this can go one of two ways: Lopez can either go for the jugular or bank the much-needed rounds and safely coast to a dominant decision.
However, when you have a fighter calling himself “The Takeover”, failing to stop a ready-to-order opponent certainly isn't a good look. Campa should withstand a few big shots here and there, but we don’t think Lopez is going to be happy letting this go to the cards.
We like this fight ending in six rounds or less, with Round 5 being the sweet spot at +600.
Pick: Lopez to win in Round 5 (+600 at DraftKings)