Mikaela Mayer vs. Alycia Baumgardner is scheduled for 10 rounds in the super featherweight division as the co-main event of the Shields vs. Marshall card this weekend in London. This is the first of two high-level grudge matches on the historic London card, and one fighter will be walking out with three titles and bragging rights to boot.
Mayer, the WBO and IBF champion, is a -280 boxing betting favorite. Baumgardner, the WBC champion, is the underdog here at +215.
We break down the fight and give you our best picks and predictions for Mayer vs. Baumgardner on October 15.
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Mikaela Mayer vs Alycia Baumgardner odds
| Method of victory | Mikaela Mayer | Alycia Baumgardner |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -320 | +230 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +600 | +440 |
| Win by points or decision | -165 | +600 |
| Draw | +1,400 | +1,400 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of October 11, 2022.
Mikaela Mayer vs Alycia Baumgardner betting predictions
Picks made on October 9. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Mikaela Mayer vs Alycia Baumgardner betting preview
Aside from the bad blood between the two champions, what this fight also is borrowing from the Shields vs. Marshall main event is the boxer vs. puncher narrative. Mayer’s best asset is her boxing acumen and a well-rounded set of skills, whereas Baumgardner has a clear advantage when it comes to power.
The one thing about Mayer that has made her a decent favorite here is that the difference in skill between her and her opposition is visually obvious. She is a sharp puncher with good footwork, excellent ring IQ, and focused enough that we’ve seldom seen her take a big shot or have a rough night.
Baumgardner is not going to come here to make it a boxing match, she wants a fight. She has seven knockouts in her 11 wins and relies on a relentless pressure game, stalking her opponents until she lands her big punches to take them out. She does have a loss, a 2019 points defeat to Christina Linardatou, who won the fight by sticking with Baumgardner and backing her up throughout.
While the memory of Baumgardner wiping out Terri Harper is still fresh, she can’t expect Mayer to be as defensively careless. We’ve seen Baumgardner get outworked and muscled out in the pocket for all her power, and Mayer certainly has the style to keep Baumgardner from getting set and firing with her full power.
This isn’t a walk in the part for Mayer, either. With Baumgardner set to chase her down from bell to bell, she’ll have to stay busy and fight efficiently to avoid any late-fight dramatics or getting caught while letting her guard down.
Mikaela Mayer vs Alycia Baumgardner boxing prediction and best bet
Prediction: Mayer ML (-270)
Pressure busts pipes, but Baumgardner’s seek-and-destroy style is not going to serve her well against a superior technician. It isn’t a reach to say that Mayer is the best fighter she’s seen since her lone defeat, and while she’s tough, toughness alone doesn’t cut at when you’re fighting to be the best.
Mayer should build an early lead behind her stinging jab. Once it becomes clear that her stronger opponent can’t pin her down, and starts throwing just for the sake of trying to hit something, Mayer can either take a risk and try to work her rival over or simply backpedal and box her way to a decision win.
If the fight does get dusty, Mayer should be resourceful enough to stand her ground. She’s not facing a vicious knockout artist who possesses the dreaded touch of sleep. Baumgardner is not a one-shot killer, so we’re going with Mayer to deliver a boxing lesson to an opponent ill-equipped to handle her.
Prediction: Mikaela Mayer moneyline (-270 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Mayer by decision/technical decision (-190)
Mayer will outclass Baumgardner, but she isn’t going to take a chance to stop her out of spite. Yes, these two don’t like each other, but there’s not enough bad blood where they’ll suddenly forget that regardless of how you win, you win nonetheless. If anything, Mayer jumps to an early lead and has to stay cautious heading into the later rounds.
Aside from a come-from-behind TKO delivered by a desperate Baumgardner, all signs point to Mayer outboxing her rival and snatching her WBC title in the process. The call here is picking Mayer to win by unanimous decision.
Prediction: Mikaela Mayer by decision or technical decision (-190 at DraftKings)
