David Benavidez vs Caleb Plant Picks and Predictions: Caleb Gets Planted

Boxing fans are in for a treat Saturday when two of the middleweight division's best square off in Vegas. Benavidez and Plant both cannot stand each other, opening the door for a barn burner. Check out our boxing picks to see who we're siding with.

Last Updated: Mar 23, 2023 10:16 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
David Benavidez Boxing
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

David Benavidez vs. Caleb Plant is scheduled for 12 rounds in the super middleweight division and is the featured boxing attraction this weekend from The MGM Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

This fight features two of the best super middleweights in the world hoping to narrow their path towards a mega fight with Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, and they hate each other’s guts.

Boxing odds have Benavidez as a solid favorite at -330, while Plant, who dropped a challenge to Alvarez in 2021, is a +240 underdog.

Here are our boxing picks and predictions for Benavidez vs. Plant from Las Vegas.

David Benavidez vs Caleb Plant odds

Method of victory David Benavidez Caleb Plant
Win outright -260 +220
Win by KO/TKO -130 +700
Win by points or decision +430 +390
Draw +1,800 +1,800

Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of March 25, 2022.

David Benavidez vs Caleb Plant betting predictions

Picks made on March 25. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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David Benavidez vs Caleb Plant betting preview

Though no titles are on the line and Alvarez is not involved, this is the best fight that can be made in the division. Benavidez and Plant have been dogging each other for years, and these two former champions are going to do what they can to shut one another up.   

Benavidez (26-0, 23 KOs) is entering the prime of his career and is already a two-time champion. Though out-of-the-ring issues and his own discipline threatened to derail him early, he’s turned a corner in his pursuit of a super fight with Alvarez.

He is coming off a horrifyingly one-sided drubbing of David Lemiuex last March, and if he continues on this development path, Plant just might be another victim on the resume of an emerging great.

The Pheonix native has an 88.46% knockout ratio and an average fight time of 4.53 rounds. With his strength, excellent hand speed, and offensive instincts, Benavidez has the makings of a superstar. The 26-year-old is facing a challenge from a motivated ex-champion who is going into this fight knowing he’ll need his brains, not brawn, to pull off a win.

Plant (22-1, 12 KO) is a slickster going from one grudge match to another. The former IBF champion rebounded from his TKO loss to Alvarez with a knockout of the year candidate over a faded Anthony Dirrell last November. The knockout was a rarity for Plant, but he hopes he carries that same energy against an opponent better prepared to defend himself.

While Plant’s bark has been tremendous in the build-up, he’ll have to hope his bite is as vicious. Plant is a distance fighter, having a 56.52% knockout ratio with an average fight time of 6.17 rounds. If the pre-fight bravado phased Benavidez, giving Plant a mental edge, then Plant’s methodical technique might be enough to box past the bruiser. 

If there is any fight to prove that Benavidez deserves a fight with Alvarez, this is it. Plant has to hope that the loss to Alvarez has made him a better boxer because he’ll see more of the same in a bigger package. 

This is a bull vs. matador fight, and it should be entertaining as it features two top-tier fighters in their primes.

David Benavidez vs Caleb Plant boxing prediction and best bet

Prediction: Benavidez ML

The thing about Plant is that his abilities are overblown, and his bark is bigger than his bite. We’re not saying he’s a bad fighter, but he was figured out and beaten up by Alvarez, who walked through Plant’s potshots. That pressure wore him out and made him primed for a late fight stoppage.

So now he can outsmart a bigger, stronger, and busier offensive fighter than Alvarez after one fight? Benavidez holds all the cards here, and it’s his fight to lose. Plant can win if he sticks and moves perfectly for 12 rounds, but he’s shown that he tires late and doesn’t have the firepower to fight Benavidez off him.

After five rounds, we should see Benavidez’s pressure begin to show its effects on the way to an inevitable victory.

Prediction: Benavidez moneyline (-330 at DraftKings)

Best Bet: Benavidez to win in rounds 10-12 (+350)

After getting pushed back the better part of the first six rounds, Plant is going to either be too tired to retreat or will desperately engage to get himself back in the fight.

If he couldn’t bother Alvarez with his best punches, he’ll experience the same dilemma against Benavidez. With his faster hands and better punching power, this fight could be over at any point unless Plant somehow sweeps the first five rounds.

A few years ago, Benavidez might not have been focused or mature to take this kind of fight. We’ll see a career-best performance out of him here, breaking Plant down in the middle rounds and ultimately stopping him between rounds 10-12

Prediction: Benavidez to win in rounds 10-12 (+350 at DraftKings)

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