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@Sea007EX Still applies for the next decade. You're throwing money away betting on the Saints to win a SB anytime soon. |
EuroPro | 18 |
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@Surfrancis123 Players are in on it too. Not just refs. Point shaving happens often. |
Surfrancis123 | 16 |
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@fts1409 If SF wins it will be by 10+. KC either wins outright or gets blown out. It won't be a close game. |
fts1409 | 16 |
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Quote Originally Posted by brn2loslive2win:
@vanzack When your entire season is on the line you absolutely need to call timeout. A fumbled snap could be the miracle that propels you to the Superbowl. I hate when coaches give up. Tampa had ZERO chance at a SB entrance. ZERO |
vanzack | 50 |
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Quote Originally Posted by anNFLfan:
@Indigo999 I heard that bets with vast public on it lose more than win. I'm very curious if the bet consensus we see online is real and can we trust it ? It's true but you can't trust those numbers. No casino would ever be stupid enough to put their take out in public. |
Indigo999 | 65 |
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Quote Originally Posted by RebelTell2:
Hey, Great post #11. "Vegas has math geniuses PhDs and very expensive computers that make their lines"
Such a true statement. If you are ever going to beat sports betting, you have to understand this and be humbled by the fact that Vegas knows infinitely more than any bettor does.
What is interesting is how inaccurate Vegas is with the number they put out, especially at football. With all that genius mathematical expertise and computer power, the odds makers are less than 50% of the time within 4-7 points of the of the line they project to be the final score of any game of football.
This is a testament to the Variance of an average football game. How does the typical bettor overcome that kind of variance when the folks with the math pros and supercomputers can't? How do you figure the randomness of variance? Looking back at the playoffs this year, 5 of the games were off the spot by 14 points or more. 1 was off by 7+. Only 4 games of the 10 were within 7 of the Vegas number. That's a snapshot of how inaccurate Vegas is in projecting the outcome of pro football. My question to you, Is there a way to compute how an average of how much Vegas misses their projected number during an entire season? Always appreciate your read and work. Wishing you continued success.
RT2
They aren't using super computers and math PhD to come up with a spread. Elementary math can do it. If they were trying to handicap the games to beat the spread, they'd use super computers and math geniuses.
The spread is for betting purposes, not an indication of the score. It's also not a number generated for 50/50 action either. They handicap the public and put a simple number out. Either they take a stance or they don't. |
Indigo999 | 65 |
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@ABLP0609 The chains are for entertainment. Completely useless. The refs determine the first down. Remember when they used a fucking card to put between the chain and the ball? |
ABLP0609 | 25 |
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@North-Japan Take a look at Carr and Dennis Allen record as road favorite. It's horrible. Saints should have lost to Tennessee at home. Carolina should cover ats. |
North-Japan | 12 |
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Dude, I can't agree with this. There's no team in history who's made week 1 their look ahead week. No way. Every dude will be pumped to play. Every team is even at 0-0. All that off season work to finally get on the field...
Not every player cares about winning. That's a fact. So no, not everyone will be fired up because it's game 1. Lawrence replaced Minshew. He can say there's no grudge but he will play better against his former team. It's nuts to take a team that can't beat indy in indy and yet everyone is lining up to grab Jacksonville. Division home dogs are 22-4 ats in week 1 since 2009. Take the Jags but you were warned. |
iConsciousness | 51 |
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@iConsciousness I don't like Vikings in week 1. Tampa is not going to air it out vs Minnesota. They will run the shit out of the ball. That's why Byron Leftwich was fired. Too many people are thinking losing Brady and starting Baker is an easy cover for Minnesota. [quote] Since 2004, there have been nineteen occurrences of a team with a successful quarterback either being traded away or retiring. In Week One, those teams have gone 16-3 SU and 15-2-2 ATS.[/quote]
Good luck |
iConsciousness | 51 |
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Quote Originally Posted by iConsciousness:
That Jonathan Taylor-Jim Irsay fiasco isn't doing the team any favors. I like their head coach (Steichen), but he's going to need to find his way in his first season as HC. I wonder what the record is for rooking QBs starting their first game
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You would put money on QB that doesn't win on the road? Haven't beat Indy on the road since 2017.Jacksonville has to play KC in week 2. Revenge game so they'll be looking ahead. Indy coaches have alot of familiarity with Jacksonville. Gardner minshew will be fired up to beat Jacksonville. Rethink this bet unless the rookie starts week 1. |
iConsciousness | 51 |
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replied to
Dalton is by far the worst qb in the nfl.. even worse then the other redhead wentz
in NFL Betting @SteveSquare You could have dug up the stats on Dalton in Prime time. That and teams facing Greg Romans offense with Jackson at QB, for the first time don't fare well at all. 2-25 SU 9-16-2 ATS. If Dalton starts against Pittsburgh, take Pittsburgh. He is 3-13 SU and 4-12 ATS all time against them |
SteveSquare | 12 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Chomp:
you could be right before the season began my SB prediction was Buffalo Bills Vs San Francisco 49ers but it’s looking like Bills vs Eagles right now injuries will tell.. good Luck Bills might make it but I'd be surprised if they win it. I wouldn't bet on them. They are a favorite and those don't do good. |
MoPinkie | 7 |
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[Quote: Originally Posted by FSerpico]
I've been here but don't post much. You were one of the guys I'd look to. Start betting extremely small or not at all. Your life is more valuable than a single bet. If you lost that much because of gambling then it might be time to say let's do something about this. Don't think less of yourself. You're human. Just walk the narrow line and keep your head up. |
FSerpico | 92 |
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Quote Originally Posted by DW7:
So this entertainment has gone on for decades and absolutely NO ONE of the players, coaches , front office have said anything or come forward ? That is a lot of people to be in it. . BS. A few players have spoken out about it. You, the media, fans, the League, dismisses it. |
MrPicksix985 | 35 |
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replied to
***MacAttacks * Thur. Nov. 03, 2022 * Week #9 * NFL * TNF * Football Play***
in NFL Betting @Brooklyncapper Eagles are 0-5 before Monday game Eagles are 2-4 SU ad 0-5-1 ATS all time vs AFC South
I know trends arent 100% but history does repeat itself. |
Macwestie1 | 28 |
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Quote Originally Posted by beermugs:
Saints defense is atrocious It's actually the offense that is. The officials gifted the Vikings that last TD. The officiating has been against the Saints for awhile. I don't get how a 1-3 team can be favored by 5.5 over a 2-2 team. I can't trust them to lay that number. |
BANKROLLFRESH | 8 |
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brewster | 7 |
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Winston and Trevor Simeon beat Tampa last year. The Saints held Brady to ZERO in the second game. Saints improved this year personnel wise but Tampa hasn't. You say they're head and shoulders better than the Saints? You don't think Winston will play better vs his old team? We'll see.
I don't know how the Saints will do under Dennis Allen but if Winston is just average the Saints have a playoff caliber team on paper. Good luck. |
Vanrush | 20 |
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Seattle isn't that bad. Everyone will be on Denver. Russell Wilson isn't going to suddenly make Denver world beaters day one. It'll take time. Look at everything before you make your bet. |
finnryan22 | 6 |
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