VANRUSH 2022 NFL FUTURES

Hello All,

It's the best time of the year.......here comes FOOTBALL!!!!  I have read through this site and a few others over the past three months without much comment. Done a lot of homework recently to get to this point.  I have already made many NFL Futures bets. 

I hope to do as well as last season with NFL Futures as I went 18-6-1 with a profit of $6098.00 (VANRUSH 2021 FUTURES strand on this website).  It was a great season.  I am all in on BUFFALO this year.

Here we go:

BUFFALO to win AFC EAST DIVISION  -225  $1125 to win $500

BUFFALO to win AFC EAST DIVISION  -196  $980 to win $500

BUFFALO to win SUPER BOWL  +612  $500 to win $3060

JOSH ALLEN to win MVP  +700  $600 to win $4200

GREEN BAY to win NFC NORTH DIVISION  -182  $910 to win $500

INDIANAPOLIS to win AFC SOUTH DIVISION  +102  $500 to win $510

INDIANAPOLIS to win AFC SOUTH DIVISION  -120  $600 to win $500

INDIANAPOLIS OVER 9.5  -145  $725 to win $500

DALLAS OVER 10  -105  $525 to win $500

DALLAS to win NFC EAST DIVISION  +135  $500 to win $675

CHICAGO UNDER 6.5  +107  $500 to win $535

CHICAGO UNDER 6.5 -150  $750 to win $500

TAMPA BAY to win NFC SOUTH DIVISION  -303  $1515 to win $500

I don't have very many win total bets made yet, which is strange for me.  I really like all of those and even more so the division bets.  I know I am laying a TON of juice on some of these bets, but all seem very straightforward.  All of the division picks IMO are head and shoulders above any other team in respective divisions.  Tampa Bay has to beat one team in that division and any team led by Jameis Winston will never beat a team led by Tom Brady (a much better one at that).  Buffalo is my Super Bowl pick, along with many other people on this forum and elsewhere......the other three teams may be improved, but not anywhere near Buffalo in terms of talent level and expectations.  Green Bay is still the class of that division, even with losing Adams.  Again....I am a Cousins hater and any team led by Kirk Cousins will not beat a team led by Aaron Rodgers (and a better team at that).  Chicago may be the worst team in the NFL when it is all said and done.  I bet that + price months ago.....bet the -150 a month ago.  Dallas in their own minds are super bowl contenders, but their schedule sets up nicely for a 10-win season minimum.  I would not have bet this at 10.5.  They go 10-7 fairly easily IMO. The NYG and WASH still are weaker, even though they are in theory improved.  Phily would be only threat.  Got a great price on their division odds (+135) months ago so this one may have the most risk (barring unforeseen injuries to elite players that would obviously hurt these teams' chances).  I LOVE INDY this year as well.  Division is weak overall with Tennessee taking a few steps backwards IMO and both Houston and Jacksonville still WEAK.  They should roll this division and win 10 games.  If they cannot go 10-7 with their schedule and 6 division games, I deserve to lose this bet.  I like Josh Allen to finally win an MVP.  I may hedge this with a $300 bet on Pat Mahomes at +750.  Can Aaron Rodgers really win 3 MVP in a row?  No. Tom Brady is 45 (although still high end) and after that it would take an unbelievable season for Prescott or Stafford or Burrow or others to win it.  I also like the odds for Buffalo to win Super Bowl.  I assumed a bit more risk this year on some of these bets (MVP and Super Bowl) which may dampen the results if these fail, but I like the risk vs. reward with these.  I will bet many more win totals in the coming weeks and add to this strand as I did last year.

Good Luck to ALL and comments are always welcome.

Newbie here  Just browsing around and saw your thread.  Like most of your picks esp. since I made a few of them too.  

Love the Bears win total under 7 at -130.  Also bet against them in Week 1 taking SF at -5' at -120.

Don't like the cards this year at all.  Took win total under 9 at -135.  A little steep on the juice but I think I'll get it back.

Also think the Seahawks are not going to win 6 games this year, even though Carrol usually has a winning season.

I also have the Lions winning over 6' this year at -110.  I also think they will make the playoffs at 10-7. 

Don't think your Boys are gonna do it this year.  I think the Eagles win the division and even have a bit on them to win the NFC and the SB.

Ditto with the Bills.

Good Luck.

@Charlie_Poodle

 Thanks......enjoy the forum.  I get your apprehension about Dallas.  Dallas is like the Yankees to me.  Every year they are supposed to be a super bowl contender....and every year they fail to get close.  Yankees have had a bit more success in recent years, but no titles.  I think this is Dallas' year to at least make it to the divisional round of the playoffs.  Phily is a legit contender.  Buffalo, on the other hand, really should roll through the season rather painlessly as long as Allen and key players stay healthy.  It's gambling, so anything can happen.  Buffalo seems poised to go all the way.  They have learned (hopefully) from the last two playoff losses and will pout it all together for the title.  IMO.  Appreciate the comments.

@Biscuiteater1

 Same to you sir.  May all your bets cash.  

Winston and Trevor Simeon beat Tampa last year. The Saints held Brady to ZERO in the second game. Saints improved this year personnel wise but Tampa hasn't. You say they're head and shoulders better than the Saints? You don't think Winston will play better vs his old team? We'll see.

I don't know how the Saints will do under Dennis Allen but if Winston is just average the Saints have a playoff caliber team on paper. Good luck. 

@saintsfan1977

Beating.......meaning finishing higher in the division.  Poor wording by me.  Good Luck Saints fan with all of your bets.  They did beat TB last year, but TB is much the better team......the Saints don't have enough on either side of the ball to stay with TB.  The Saints may be a wild card team, but they may also miss the playoffs.  I will take my chances with TB and TB.  New coach and a QB that is prone to failing during key moments in games, IMO not a winning answer against TB.

Dallas poised for major regression. I may be proven wrong, but with no off-season improvement, key losses on offense, declining Zeke and offensive line, and every team in the division getting better on paper, I just don’t see them making any noise whatsoever. 

Wow, you are definitely paying for some favorites.  I personally hate doing that on futures bets, but to each his own.  For your sake, I hope Allen stays healthy in BUF and Matt Ryan lives up to expectations - I'm not holding my breath on either of those.  I don't even know who the backup QB is in GB, but the NFC North is so bad, I think you're getting pretty good value on the GB bet.  I don't find much value on your TB bet. I think I'm getting pretty good value with CAR to win the division at +1145 - I put their chances at slightly less than 20%.

@bluecompass

Yes, the juice is a ton on some of them.  I've had success in the past with most high juiced win total lines, but it does set up for a big loss if the obvious doesn't occur.  Good luck with your Carolina bet......great odds....IMO has little chance to hit.  

You are nuts about Dallas and to take a flyer on these odds is (my opinion) moronic. You really don't have a thoughtful play

Ecstatic to see you on the COLTS , BILLS and Under on the BEARS ....

Appreciate seeing your futures.

COLTS to win division might be the best futures bet on rhe whole board ....Titans lost several key pieces,  don't like Jags or Texans to win more than 5 games ...

Bears should be really bad as you mentioned ...I'm on then worst record and that under ....Close to betting Fields under props as well.....I don't see many scenarios where he plays more than 13 games , that line is going to be horrible,  and he thinks he's more athletic than he really is ...

Bills division bet looks fantastic  ...Think they win by 3+ games !!!    Passing on AFC and SB ( hoping to get a better number at some point during the first 5 games ....

Sweep your slate Brorher 

May this be your best season to date ...

every august i sleep on these opening week lines

@Vanrush

 I have been with you on Bears under 6.5 for 9 units so far, and maybe more the next month or two. My basis is:

- OL is fubar per Jim Miller and Pat Curwin

- OL got worse due to injury since those comments

- since then, they signed a few vets who are not signings aimed at fixing the problem, but rather seem aimed at CYA for a tank 

- perhaps the biggest move is switching from 3-4 to 4-3 and lacking the personnel to really do that well (yikes)

- their WR room is ugly at best. Cephus listed as a starter but has poor route running 

- I actually like Fields, but this is too tall of an order for him to overcome. When it’s this bad, one has to wonder if it’s by the GM’s design (to tank)

@DoubleUp4Life

Thanks brother.....I have a little different path this year with more division bets and probably a few less win total bets.  Chicago and Indy seem to be the "easiest" to bet on.   Your posts and amazing grasp of futures (including your take on college football) helps me finalize the confidence I have in some of these bets.  I assumed more risk (lol as Muppettbitch chastised me), but sometimes you just gotta follow your gut and assume more risk for a potential higher reward.  I will post more win totals in the coming weeks.   If Buffalo stays healthy, then they should roll through the regular season and have home field for playoffs.  I like their chances even more if this occurs.  I usually never play larger amounts on Super Bowl Winner and MVP.....but it is Buffalo's time to shine.  

@Sidehatch

 Agreed on all of what you said.  May all your bets cash.    

I felt more confident with the win totals from last year.........many teams had either been good or bad for several years with not much improvement or regression, which made many of those win total bets very attractive (doubling and tripling up on several and hitting all).  This year there is more of a transition with many teams concerning improvement or regression, so I am a bit more apprehensive with some win totals.  One of my sites has alt win total lines (5 for each team) that can get me to the number I like, but with heavy juice.  Although I did bet several teams with heavy juice, I have supreme confidence in those bets.  Looking forward to adding several more win total bets as we get close to the regular season.