For Week 1, we talked about how despite a few year-to-year surprises, there’s a lot of continuity in the NFL in terms of which offenses/defenses are good/bad. We now have a week’s worth of data to help confirm some of what we thought we knew, while resisting the urge to crown Lamar Jackson the GOAT.
OFFENSES
The Saints, Chiefs and Patriots all were expected to be top-tier offenses and lived up to that billing, all finishing Top 6 in Week 1 by offensive EPA. The other big winners were a little more surprising as the Top 2 offenses in Week 1 were the Cowboys and Ravens. Both of those games featured numerous blown coverages, so while I’ll keep an eye out Week 2, I’m not ready to crown those offenses elite just yet.
On the other end of the spectrum, we saw some surprising offensive duds. Jameis Winston cemented last week’s doubts of him, but the rest of the Bottom 5 were all surprising: the Browns, Steelers, Falcons and Packers. For now, I’m giving the Falcons and Packers the benefit of the doubt as they faced the two top defenses by EPA from 2018 but there should be some concern for the Browns and especially Steelers fans.
DEFENSES
The good defenses from 2018 all performed well again, with the Vikings, Bears and Ravens all Top 6 by EPA. Perhaps the biggest surprise of Week 1 was the Denver defense. Last week, I mentioned they’d been merely average the last couple years, but they looked much worse against the Antonio Brown-less Raiders, ranking Bottom 10 by EPA and 27th by success percentage allowed.
Now, on to the picks...
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-4, 46.5)
Two big things jump out in this game: first, the Steeler offense really struggled in its first game without Antonio Brown. Looking beyond the three points the Steelers scored, they ranked 30th by EPA and, most concerningly, ranked 31st in success percentage with well under a third of their plays having positive EPA. A banged-up Juju Smith-Schuster does nothing to help this week.
Secondly, and just as importantly the Seahawks showed they want to continue their slow, run-heavy ways in 2019, running the ball on more than half of their plays and running only 49 total plays in their Week 1 game versus Cincinnati.
Struggling offense plus slow game does not equal a lot of points.
PREDICTION: Under 46.5
ARIZONA CARDINALS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (-13, 46.5)
The market has moved 4.5 points already on this one but to me the final boxscore is misleading. Arizona put up a respectable 27 points on 387 yards in its comeback tie against the Lions in Week 1. But to watch that game though, is to watch a defense run out of gas.
On their first 12 drives (ignoring a kneel-down at half), the Cardinals ran 53 plays for 163 yards and nine points. From that point on the Lions defense looked gassed, getting virtually no pressure and allowing the Cardinals to march down the field. Don’t expect the same against a Ravens stop unit that finished second by EPA in each of the last two years and continued that Week 1 against the undermanned Dolphins.
On the other side of the ball, Lamar Jackson & Co. scored at will against Miami. Jackson certainly looked better as a passer than in 2018, but he’s unlikely to see quite the same number of uncovered receivers Week 2. Arizona’s defense was slightly below average in 2018 and performed slightly better in Week 1. The Cardinals are not going to shut down the Ravens completely but should put up a better fight than the Dolphins.
PREDICTION: Under 46.5
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT OAKLAND RAIDERS (+7, 53.5)
The Chiefs made short work of the Jaguars defense which, despite its well-publicized struggles in 2018, was still a well-above average defense. They now face a Raiders defense that held up against the Broncos but ranked 32nd by EPA in 2018 and will be without starting safety and first-round pick Jonathan Abrams.
The Raiders offense meanwhile put up an impressive performance against what was supposed to be a great Denver defense under new coach Vic Fangio. The Kansas City defense gave up 26 points and well over 400 yards to the Gardner Minshew (who?)-led Jags, leaving this one with all the makings of a shootout.
PREDICTION: Over 53.5
Week 1 picks: 2-1
Season to date: 2-1
