The NBA’s free-agency period doesn’t begin until 6 p.m. ET Sunday, and free-agent deals can’t be signed until the following Saturday, July 6. But the Anthony Davis-to-Los Angeles deal is a slam dunk, and plenty more reports and rumors are swirling for other players.
Covers checks in on how futures odds would shift based on where five key free agents land, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas; Alan Berg, senior oddsmaker for Caesars Palace sportsbooks; and the risk team at CG Technology in Vegas.**video
KAWHI LEONARD
Kevin Durant could rightly be termed the biggest fish in the free-agent pond, but with a torn Achilles, he’s not playing next season. And Warriors teammate Klay Thompson would be a big catch, as well, but the best-case scenario has him returning from an ACL tear in February, and he might not return until the 2020-21 season.
That leaves Leonard as the clear frontrunner for teams in the free-agent market. Leonard was named the NBA Finals MVP after leading Toronto to an upset of Golden State in the NBA Finals.
Should Leonard decide to stay in Toronto, the oddsmakers’ consensus would put the Raptors’ title odds in the range of 6/1 - slightly tightening from the current 8/1 to 10/1 range.
“It’s really tough to repeat, but Kawhi showed his worth, and they should have a great shot at returning to the Finals,” Berg said.
| LEONARD SIGNS... | ODDS BEFORE | ODDS AFTER |
|---|---|---|
| WITH TORONTO RAPTORS | 8/1 | 6/1 |
| WITH LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS | 7/1 | 6/1 |
| WITH LOS ANGELES LAKERS | 3/1 | 1/2 |
Other potential landing spots:
Clippers: The less-heralded Los Angeles outfit is already at 7/1, and should Leonard head to the Clippers, the shift would be nominal, likely to 6/1.
“It might tick the Clippers down slightly, only because of the proximity of the market to Las Vegas,” CG’s risk team said.
Lakers: With L.A. already set to add Anthony Davis, luring Leonard would lead Vegas oddsmakers to consider putting the Lakers in territory normally reserved for Golden State. At the least, Los Angeles would move from 3/1 to Even money. But more likely, the Lake Show would be heavily juiced, perhaps as much as -200.
“Comparatively, we probably have more tickets on the Lakers than the rest of the league combined,” CG’s risk team said. “We don’t anticipate Kawhi going to the Lakers. If they do sign him, we’d have to have a serious discussion in our risk room.”
Such a signing would cause a massive domino effect with the two teams that lost out on Leonard.
“The Raptors and the Clippers would both go to 50/1,” Murray said.
KYRIE IRVING
It’s become more apparent that Irving is not happy in Boston and therefore quite unlikely to stay there. Even if he stays, the consensus is that there will be no movement, with the Celtics sticking at 25/1 to win the championship.
| IRVING SIGNS... | ODDS BEFORE | ODDS AFTER |
|---|---|---|
| WITH BOSTON CELTICS | 25/1 | 25/1 |
| WITH LOS ANGELES LAKERS | 3/1 | 5/2 |
| WITH BROOKLYN NETS (MINUS D. RUSSELL) | 30/1 | 60/1 |
Other potential landing spots:
Lakers: Irving reuniting with LeBron James would tighten L.A.’s odds, but only modestly, nothing along the lines of Leonard signing with the Lakers. The price would tighten from the current +300 to +250.
Nets: The issue here is that if Irving lands in Brooklyn, D’Angelo Russell probably doesn’t stay. The SuperBook currently has the Nets at 30/1, and that number would tighten only if Brooklyn kept Russell or added another piece or two around Irving. If that didn’t happen, then the Nets would actually backslide.
“If they only got Kyrie and lost Russell, I would make them 60/1,” Murray said. “The lower number there is based on them getting more than one guy. If they get Kyrie and lose Russell, they can’t win anything.”
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JIMMY BUTLER
Butler could end up on his fourth team in as many seasons, after moving from Chicago to Minnesota, then to Philadelphia this past season. If he stays with the 76ers, the consensus is that Philly’s futures odds would remain in the 8/1 to 10/1 range, but that changes significantly if Leonard leaves Toronto.
“The 76ers were one shot away from having a shot at knocking out Toronto,” Berg said. “They have all the tools to make a run in the East and should be favored if Kawhi leaves. I would start at 8/1 and move down to 5/1 or so if Kawhi heads West and the Sixers return all their guys, including Tobias Harris.”
| BUTLER SIGNS... | ODDS BEFORE | ODDS AFTER |
|---|---|---|
| WITH PHILADELPHIA 76ERS (LEONARD STAYS IN TORONTO) | 9/1 | 9/1 |
| WITH LOS ANGELES LAKERS | 3/1 | 2/1 |
| WITH HOUSTON ROCKETS (PAUL STAYS IN HOUSTON) | 8/1 | 3/1 |
Other potential landing spots:
Lakers: Butler joining up with LeBron and AD would have a nominal impact on Los Angeles’ odds, from the current +300 down to perhaps +250 or +200.
Rockets: There are rumors that Houston has interest in Butler, but Murray isn’t buying it.
“It’s not possible without them moving around players,” he said, leading him not to speculate on what The SuperBook would do with its current 8/1 price.
If somehow Butler did get to Houston, and Chris Paul and James Harden remain, it would get interesting for oddsmakers.
“Butler signing could push them into co-favorites with L.A., assuming the Rockets can keep the trio of CP3, the Beard and Butler together,” Berg said, again noting the factor of Leonard’s landing spot. “The odds would be based on the rest of free agency playing out. Kawhi changes lots of odds.”
KEMBA WALKER
Walker might stay in Charlotte, but if he does, all three oddsmakers said there would likely be no change in the Hornets’ futures odds. They’d remain a long shot in the 200/1 to 300/1 range and continue to see limited if any action.
“We haven’t taken a single bet on the Hornets,” CG’s risk team said. “That said, they can’t go much higher.”
| WALKER SIGNS... | ODDS BEFORE | ODDS AFTER |
|---|---|---|
| WITH CHARLOTTE HORNETS | 200/1 | 200/1 |
| WITH LOS ANGELES LAKERS | 3/1 | 5/2 |
| WITH DALLAS MAVERICKS | 60/1 | 30/1 |
Other potential landing spots:
Lakers: Murray said he’d modestly adjust L.A. to +250, CG said it might tighten a bit more than that, while Berg felt minus money would be in order for such a transaction.
“Outside of Kawhi, this is probably the best signing the Lakers can make, and I would place them around -150,” Berg said.
Mavericks: All three oddsmakers agreed that Dallas could see a significant jump. The consensus of their opinions would put the Mavs in the 25/1 to 35/1 range. Currently, Dallas is 60/1 at The SuperBook, 45/1 at CG and 40/1 at Caesars.
“That’s one of the teams we saw money and recent movement on, from 60/1 to 50/1 and now 45/1,” CG’s risk team said. “Maybe that’s some speculation on getting Walker.”
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D’ANGELO RUSSELL
Russell might opt to stay with Brooklyn, but without any other pieces added, he won’t move the needle much if at all. In fact, as Murray alluded to in the Irving/Russell/Nets situation, if only one of those players is in Brooklyn, the odds slide significantly, from the 25/1 range to as much as 60/1.
| RUSSELL SIGNS... | ODDS BEFORE | ODDS AFTER |
|---|---|---|
| WITH BROOKLYN NETS (DOESN'T ADD ANOTHER FA) | 30/1 | 60/1 |
| WITH LOS ANGELES LAKERS | 3/1 | 2/1 |
Finally, there’s the common denominator among all five of these free-agent finds: the Lakers. If Russell goes back to L.A., there probably wouldn’t be much movement, perhaps down to 2/1. But Vegas books almost always see a ton of Los Angeles money, as the past few weeks have demonstrated.
More of that Lakers cash could be coming, but CG would sure like to counter that by seeing some of these stars land on other Western Conference rosters.
“We are welcoming all bets on all Western Conference teams to win the title, other than the Lakers,” CG’s risk team said. “It’s crazy the amount of tickets and money we have on the Lakers.”
