Plenty of times when NFL bettors get hit with a result they didn’t see coming, they instantly wonder, “What did I miss?” And often, the underlying X-factor in that final score fits the mold of the situational spot.
Letdowns, lookaheads, and schedule spots are just part of the puzzle when it comes to capping the weekly NFL odds, and sometimes that puzzle piece is bigger than you’d imagine. Covers.com Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan is a big fan of situational capping and gives his favorite spot bets for the NFL Week 14 odds.
LETDOWN SPOT: DENVER BRONCOS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (-9.5, 41.5)
The Texans entered the 2019 season with the hardest slate of games, as ranked by strength of schedule. So, it’s no surprise that Houston has been a mainstay of this weekly spot bet showcase and makes its fifth appearance in Week 14.
The Texans are coming off a huge win over the New England Patriots last Sunday and now take on the Denver Broncos as big home faves. Houston was as big as 10-point chalk but has been bet down as low as -9 with early money recognizing this tricky spot for the Texans. No only is the letdown off the victory over New England possible but Houston could also get caught looking ahead to what is now an important road game in Tennessee next week.
The Broncos are coming off a last-second victory over the Chargers at home in Week 13 and have been raking in the Rocky Mountain money for Denver bettors, covering in six of their previous eight games. Houston, on the other hand, is 2-4 ATS inside NRG Stadium and is 1-6 against the spread in its last seven games following an ATS winner.
LOOKAHEAD SPOT: TENNESSEE TITANS AT OAKLAND RAIDERS (+3, 47.5)
Staying in the AFC South and piggybacking on the Texans' sandwich spot in Week 14, we have red-hot Tennessee traveling across the country to face the Oakland Raiders as a field-goal favorite. The Titans have won three in a row behind a suddenly-sizzling offense, averaging 36 points during this winning streak.
That run has Tennessee back in the divisional hunt and hot on the heels of Houston in the final four games of the season. The Titans, at 7-5 SU, could get caught looking ahead to that Week 15 showdown versus the Texans at home. Oakland has looked terrible the past two games, getting outscored 74-12 in road losses to the Jets and Chiefs, but is back in the Bay Area where the Silver and Black are 4-2 ATS on the season and 7-2 ATS in their last nine homestands.
Tennessee could also find itself dining at the situational sandwich shop this Sunday, chewing back a letdown spot after that huge win at Indianapolis and washing it down with a cool drink of schedule spot, playing in its second straight road game.
SCHEDULE SPOT: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-2.5, 44.5)
The Niners are no doubt blowing through the ice packs and Advil (or stronger) the week following a very physical matchup with the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday (Bonus trend: teams are 4-7 ATS immediately following a game vs. Baltimore this season). San Francisco doesn’t get much time to lick those wounds, traveling to the Big Easy for an important NFC game.
The 49ers opened as 3-point underdogs versus the Saints in Week 14 and early money on San Francisco has moved this spread under the key number to NOLA -2.5. This will the Niners’ second straight road game, a situation that hasn’t been historically kind to the franchise: going 5-10 SU and 6-8-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games since 2014.
Now, this 2019 edition of the 49ers is much different than past San Fran teams but there’s no denying this sticky schedule spot, which also sees the opponent – New Orleans – well rested off a mini bye due to playing (and beating) the Falcons on Thanksgiving Thursday. Sean Payton and his staff were able to sit back and watch that 49ers-Ravens game, giving them extra prep time. New Orleans is a solid 14-8 ATS with the edge in rest since 2010.
