Thursday night’s TNT early NBA game between the Golden State Warriors (11-3 SU, 7-7 ATS) and the Boston Celtics (13-2 SU, 12-2-1 ATS) has more backstory than a full season of Basketball Wives. **video
The sportsbooks opened with the Warriors giving seven points to the hosting Celtics and the total set at 214.5. That's the second lowest Over/Under line in a Golden State game this season and it's the second highest total for Boston.
It’s not just a meeting of the teams with the two best records in the league – it’s also a matchup of contrasting styles. The Warriors own the league’s best offense with an average of 116.2 points scored per 100 possessions. Boston, meanwhile, is first in the NBA in defense with its opponents netting just 95.8 points per 100 possessions.
The top spot in offensive rating is nothing new for Dub Nation. Golden State finished first in offense in each of the last two seasons and placed a close second behind the Los Angeles Clippers three years ago.
The Celtics, on the other hand, allowed a full 10 more points per 100 possessions and finished 12th in defensive rating last campaign. The turnaround can be contributed to the C’s getting serious on the glass. Boston finished 27th in rebounding last season cleaning up only 48.5 percent of missed shots whereas this year the team is second in rebounding by collecting 53.1 percent of balls coming out.
Keeping the glass clean is limiting the amount of second chance points allowed. Last year Brad Stevens’ crew gave up 13.9 points per game coming off opposing team’s offensive rebounds. The number has dropped to 9.7 this season – or a 4.2-point boost to the squad’s defensive effectiveness.
Boston’s new-found friskiness on the defensive end of the court has helped the Under go 10-5 in the club’s first 15 games.
We wanted to see what’s happened in previous seasons when the top offense matched up against the best defense to find out if there was any trend beneficial for totals bettors. The data we collected confirms what we already knew: oddsmakers are really good at setting lines.
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