The Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys expected to be battling for supremacy in the NFC East this season, but both clubs likely envisioned having better records heading into their Sunday night clash in Arlington, Texas. **video
The Eagles fell to 3-3 (2-4 ATS) following a 38-20 loss to Minnesota last week while the Cowboys own the same mark (3-3 ATS) after dropping their third straight game with a 24-22 setback to the previously winless New York Jets. From the opening kickoff to the final whistle, we break down the best ways to wager the odds for this NFC East clash.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT DALLAS COWBOYS (-2.5, 49.5 @ BETAMERICA)
QUICK HITTER
The Eagles and Cowboys is one of the best rivalries going in the NFL right now, but the Cowboys have won and covered each of the past three meetings. And with both teams not playing their best football heading into this one, you know the intensity for this matchup will be amped up. And that gives the defenses the edge early. That and the fact that both of these offenses haven’t exactly been flying out of the gates in games this season.
The Cowboys rank 24th in the NFL in first quarter points per game at just 3.3 per contest, while the Eagles have yet to score a first quarter point on the road this season. With the added intensity of this rivalry this one should be low-scoring in the opening frame.
Pick: Under 9.5 First Quarter Total (-105)
FIRST HALF BET
Carson Wentz, who threw for two touchdowns last week versus the Vikings, has 10 scores against just one interception, with a quarterback rating of 100 in five career starts versus the Cowboys, despite a 2-3 record in those games. And Wentz could have more success in this one. Alshon Jeffery is hot, coming off a team-leading 10 reception, 76 yard performance last week and has found the end zone in each of his last two games against Dallas. Now, they go up against a Cowboys pass defense that ranks 25th in DVOA.
One of the problems for the Cowboys during their three-game losing streak is that they’ve been unable to get their run game going. Ezekiel Elliott is averaging just over 67 yards per game on at a clip of just 3.5 yards per carry during the slide. And things won’t get any easier for Elliott this week. The Eagles rank second in the NFL in rushing defense DVOA and are allowing just 3.3 yards per attempt this season. Philly will attempt to stuff the run in this one and force Dak Prescott to beat them through the air. Something they have had success with in the past.
Pick: Eagles +1 First Half Spread
TEAM/PLAYER PROP
As mentioned, while Prescott has guided the Cowboys to three consecutive wins over their rival, his passing numbers against the Eagles leave a little something to be desired. Prescott has completed just over 63 percent of his passes, averages 228 yards per game and has thrown seven touchdowns compared to six interceptions in his six career games against Philly. And his quarterback rating of 83.2 against the Eagles is the second worst of any team he has faced more than once. Yes, Philly’s pass defense has been porous to this point, that actually provides us with some value in regard to Prescott’s passing yard total. With the high-intensity of this matchup, we like Prescott to stay Under this number.
Pick: Dak Prescott Under 289.5 Passing Yards
FULL GAME TOTAL
While Philly has given up more points than they probably would have liked to this point in the season, its defense grades out a little better than the standard numbers suggest. The Eagles rank 13th in defensive DVOA, while the Cowboys have averaged just 18.7 points per game during their three-game slide. It doesn’t help matters for the Cowboys that Amari Cooper is question able with a bruised thigh. Cooper torched the Eagles in their last meeting for 10 receptions for 217 yards and three touchdowns. Randall Cobb’s status is also up in the air. And with the Eagles offense almost maddeningly inconsistent, we think this number is high enough to sneak Under.
Pick: Under 49.5
FULL GAME SIDE
Both of these teams are 3-3, but five of those six wins came against Washington, the Dolphins, the Giants and the Jets. Hot take alert: None of those teams are very good. The Eagles have the best win of the bunch, upsetting the Packers at Lambeau on a short week. And the Cowboys. Well, it’s just hard to forgive them for losing outright to the Jets as seven point faves last week.
Yes, the Eagles have dropped three straight games in this matchup and are coming off a game where they made Kirk Cousins look like Joe Montana, but they could be a sneaky play at AT&T Stadium on Sunday night. The road team is also 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings between the Eagles and Cowboys. Don’t be surprised if the Eagles win this one outright.
Pick: Eagles +2.5
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