The Dallas Stars blew a 3-0 first-period lead in the series opener to the Colorado Avalanche and will look to avoid losing back-to-back home games tonight as a -132 favorite in Game 2.
With the Colorado offense lighting up the best goalies in hockey and the Stars fatigued at the end of games thanks to their personnel usage on the blue line, my Avalanche vs. Stars predictions are focusing on whether or not any team can slow down this red-hot Avalanche offense.
I break down the odds and offer my best NHL picks for Thursday, May 9.
Avalanche vs Stars prediction
My best bet
Avalanche team total Over 2.5 in regulation (-139 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
The Colorado Avalanche are averaging 5.33 goals per game in the playoffs and are sporting a power play that's scoring at 44% and has four multi-PP goal games over six postseason contests. They broke down likely Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck and are doing the same to Jake Oettinger, who was also among the betting favorites to open the season.
Colorado can erase giant deficits as bettors saw in the series opener as the Dallas Stars went into the first break up 3-0 before losing 4-3 in extra time. They can also run up the score like as did against Winnipeg. This offense is game-script proof and is paying good plus money to score 4+ goals — something it's done in each of its six playoff games thus far.
Pinnacle, however, has Over 2.5 goals in regulation at -139 which is also getting added to the card.
This Dallas defense leads me to believe Colorado will be able to do whatever it wants, especially late in games. The Stars are dressing six defenders but Nils Lundkvist is playing four minutes a night.
That's giving big minutes to five D-men who just came out of a long hard-fought seven-game series against Vegas, had a quick turnaround for Round 2, and are coming off an overtime game with just one day of rest.
The Avs have skill but they also have great role players who are adding a different dimension to the offense relative to the top line. The Dallas defenders are logging heavy minutes and considering the Avs scored nearly half of their goals on screens in front of the net in the first round, Dallas could struggle to get those big bodies away from Oettinger all series long.
The play is for three goals after 60 minutes, but Over 3.5 at +130 or better and even the Over 4.5 at +330 is also worth a little attention. Until anyone slows down the Colorado offense, I’m not betting against them.
Avalanche vs Stars same-game parlay (SGP)
Avalanche team total Over 3.5
Val Nichushkin anytime goalscorer
Miro Heiskanen Over 2.5 shots on goal
Nobody has slowed down this Colorado offense and it's worth riding until I see otherwise. Nichushkin has scored in every playoff game to date and is still paying great money to find the back of the net tonight.
I'd play his AGS at +145 or better as a solo play until the books correct it. With the Stars giving massive minutes to just five D-men, Heiskanen will continue to see 25 minutes of ice time while trailing, which creates more shooting opportunities for the losing team.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Avalanche vs Stars odds
Avalanche vs Stars live odds
Avalanche vs Stars opening odds
- Puck line: Colorado +1.5 (-222) | Dallas -1.5 (+192)
- Moneyline: Colorado +111 | Dallas -125
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-104) | Under 6.5 (-110)
Avalanche vs Stars moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Stars have taken some money since opening going between -125 and -135 in some places after closing as a -120 home favorite in the opener. The Under has also taken some action but just about a 5-point move since opening.
- Over five meetings this year, Colorado has scored 24 goals and at least four in each match. They scored four goals on 24 shots in the opener and over six playoff games, leading all playoff teams with a 15.09% shooting percentage, which is high but also sustainable with this roster.
- The Avs are 5-1 to the Over so far in the postseason with the only Under being a 5-1 win against Winnipeg. They're averaging a staggering 8.33 total goals per game.
- Neither team picked up any injuries in the series opener but the Stars are giving their sixth defenseman under five minutes per game, which could drain the blue line the longer the series goes.
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Avalanche vs Stars trend
The Avalanche have gone Over the total in 49 of their last 79 games (+16.35 units / 18% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs. Stars.
Avalanche vs Stars game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-9-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Avalanche vs Stars latest injuries
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