With two wins to kick off this four-game set, the San Diego Padres look to make it three straight against the Atlanta Braves in the first part of a day-night doubleheader at Truist Park.
Can San Diego send Atlanta to its first four-game losing skid of the season? Read below for my MLB picks and Padres vs. Braves predictions.
Padres vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Padres moneyline (+110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Scoring runs have been a problem for the Atlanta Braves this season and that's shown itself during this three-game losing slide. The Braves have plated a single run in three straight, including Sunday’s 9-1 defeat to the San Diego Padres in Game 2.
Atlanta ranks 19th in the majors in runs scored, averaging 4.73 per game. That's despite the Braves ranking inside the Top 10 in average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS, while also hitting .289 with runners in scoring position, the fourth-best mark in the league.
Their pitching hasn’t held up of late either. A team that sports a team ERA of 3.46 — good for ninth in the majors — has been shelled, giving up 19 runs over the past three losses.
They’re hoping starter Reynaldo Lopez can help turn things around. The 30-year-old righty is 2-1 on the year with a 1.34 ERA. In his last outing against the Cubs, Lopez gave up just two hits with no runs in five innings of work, while striking out four and walking a couple.
San Diego is one of the better offensive units in baseball, ranking Top 7 in runs scored, batting average, on-base percentage, and OPS, while sitting eighth in slugging percentage. Their above-average hitting helps offset a middle-of-the-pack pitching staff that’s currently 15th in ERA at 3.99 while posting a WHIP of 1.29 (14th) with batters averaging .233 against them (11th).
San Diego's pitching has been especially stingy against the Braves in recent matchups, limiting them to two runs or fewer in seven of the last eight. They’ve come away with wins in six of those games.
The Padres are rolling will Dylan Cease, who's 5-3 on the season with a nice 2.45 ERA in nine starts, while sitting fifth in strikeouts with 68. He's given up a run or fewer in five of his last seven outings.
The Padres are also tied with the second-most road wins in the NL. Look for them to steal another one in Atlanta with the Braves stuck in this mini-offensive slump.
Padres vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres moneyline
Luis Arraez 2+ hits
Reynaldo Lopez Over 1.5 walks
Luis Arraez has been streaking. He finished Sunday with two hits and a walk, extending his on-base streak to 23 games. He’s been doing it mostly with the bat, as Arraez has collected a hit in 21 of his last 25 games, including three straight games with at least two hits, and 12 multi-hit games over this stretch.
Arraez is the most accomplished Padres hitter against Lopez as well, going 7-for-20 in his career, a crisp .350 clip.
Speaking of Lopez, while he's been able to keep the runs off the board, he's struggled issuing free passes this season. In 30 innings of work, Lopez has issued 10 walks, giving up at least two in six of his seven starts on the season.
The Padres rank in the Top 10 of walks taken this season, so look for them to work the count against a starter who can lose control from time to time.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Braves odds
Padres vs Braves live odds
Padres vs Braves opening odds
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-190) | Atlanta -1.5 (+155)
- Moneyline: San Diego +105 | Atlanta -125
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Padres vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Padres have won six of their last eight against the Braves.
- The Braves are 26-12 as moneyline favorites this season.
- The Padres have cashed the Over in four of their last five games.
- Atlanta has gone Under the total in seven of its last eight.
Padres vs Braves trend
The underdogs have won in each of San Diego’s last five games. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Braves
Padres vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Monday, 5-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 12:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SDPA, Bally Sports Southeast |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Dylan Cease (5-3, 2.45 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Reynaldo Lopez (2-1, 1.34 ERA) |
Padres vs Braves latest injuries
Padres vs Braves weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
