The Toronto Blue Jays salvaged their series with the Tampa Bay Rays by taking Sunday’s finale, but this team needs to start stringing together some wins if they want to save their season.
Luckily, they open a series with the lowly Chicago White Sox on this holiday Monday. The Pale Hose have arguably been the worst team in baseball this season, however runs might not come as easy as you would expect for Toronto in our White Sox vs. Blue Jays predictions for today’s matinee matchup.
I break down the odds in my MLB picks for Monday, May 20.
White Sox vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (-109 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Yes, the Toronto Blue Jays earned a win against the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday thanks to some unlikely sources, namely Alek Manoah, who had his best start in what feels like forever, and Daniel Vogelbach.
Despite scoring five runs, and the fact that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is locked in, this lineup as a whole still has a lot of issues. The Blue Jays are scoring just 3.9 runs per game over 14 games in May, plating four or fewer nine times.
Today, they’ll dig in against Chicago White Sox starter Erick Fedde and while the Pale Hose have plenty of pitching problems, the right-hander can't be counted among them. Fedde is off to the best start of his career, pitching to a 3.44 expected ERA while limiting opponents to a .230 expected batting average. He also has a strikeout rate of 23.6%. All are career bests.
Oh, and did I mention the Jays do not enjoy facing right-handed pitchers? Toronto ranks 23rd in batting average, 26th in OPS, and 24th in wRC+ when facing righties this season.
The Blue Jays' saving grace here is they counter Fedde with Jose Berrios. The Toronto right-hander bounced back following his worst start of the season by limiting the Baltimore Orioles to two runs on three hits over seven innings. It was the eighth time in nine starts this season he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in an outing.
And while the Blue Jays’ lineup has been bad, the White Sox are worse. Chicago ranks 28th in batting average, and dead last in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season. While the Blue Jays have scored the second-fewest runs in MLB this season (164), that's right, the White Sox are circling the drain with just 133.
Thanks to their underperforming offense, the Blue Jays have become a great Under bet, particularly when their best starters are on the mound. They are 18-27 O/U for the season, 2-7 O/U in their last nine games overall, and 2-7 O/U in Berrios’ nine starts this season.
This game has low-scoring pitcher’s duel written all over it.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs (+150 at PROLINE+)
While the Blue Jays offense has undoubtedly underachieved, it has been a huge relief to see that something has clicked for Guerrero, even if we are still waiting for his home runs to return.
He's locked in at the dish with hits in 16 of his last 18 games, good for a .400 batting average and a .962 OPS. And despite the absence of home runs, Vladdy is smashing the cover off the ball, ranking in the 99th percentile in hard-hit percentage and the 98th percentile in average exit velocity. A slight uptick in his launch angle and we could see a few more balls leave the yard.
For now, I like him to drive in a run in this matchup. He’s still hitting third in the Jays’ lineup and Jon Schneider is finally starting to put guys in front of Vladdy who actually get on base. He has 10 RBIs over that 18-game stretch and our Covers Prop Projections have him set at 0.7 for today’s game which means there is value in the Over at this price.
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White Sox vs Blue Jays odds
White Sox vs Blue Jays live odds
White Sox vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 -135 | Toronto -1.5 +115
- Moneyline: Chicago +165 | Toronto -200
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 | Under 8.0
White Sox vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this Monday matinee as big -200 home favorites and they have seen a bit of early action moving the line to Toronto -205.
- As someone who watches Toronto every day, it's a scary proposition to lay this amount of juice, particularly when you consider how effective Fedde has been.
- The total hit the board at an even 8.0 but was quickly bet down to the current number of 7.5.
- The White Sox have also hit the Under in nine of their last 12 games and in six of Fedde's nine starts.
White Sox vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games for +10.30 Units and a 23% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Blue Jays
White Sox vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Monday, 5-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 3:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-Chicago, Sportsnet |
| White Sox starting pitcher: | Erick Fedde (4-0, 2.60 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Jose Berrios (4-3, 2.82 ERA) |
White Sox vs Blue Jays latest injuries
White Sox vs Blue Jays weather
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