Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

The Arizona Diamondbacks head to SoCal for a three-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers that begins Monday night. Looking at the MLB odds, the Dodgers are favored on the moneyline (-225) while the total is set at 8.5. 

Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets the nod for L.A. while Arizona goes with an opener. I take a closer look with my Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers predictions at what that means for the first-five total and provide my full MLB picks below.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers prediction

My best bet
First-five Under 4.5 (-105 at bet365)

My analysis
Japanese import Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been a terrific addition for the Los Angeles Dodgers, sporting a 4-1 record and a 3.21 ERA through nine starts. His 3.44 xERA and 3.26 FIP are both encouraging and he’s successfully generating strikeouts (27.5% K-rate) and limiting walks (5.2% walk rate). 

He faced the Arizona Diamondbacks once on May 1 and held them scoreless across six innings of five-hit ball. Arizona has been nothing to fear at the plate in May with a 93 wRC+ (19th) and a .300 wOBA (21st). The Diamondbacks have been in low-scoring games on the road and are 8-12-2 O/U away from home. 

Arizona counters with the 24-year-old Slade Cecconi, who has quite a discrepancy between his actual ERA (5.27) and xERA (2.97). He’ll work behind an opener as left-handed reliever Joe Mantiply (3.82 xERA, 2.58 FIP) will handle at least the first inning. 

It’s a move that makes sense considering the Dodgers have two left-handed boppers in the top third of their lineup and it pushes back Cecconi seeing the most dangerous part of their lineup a second or third time through.

This is especially important for Cecconi because he’s been lights out the first time through the order (.029 BA, .084 OPS allowed) but has been lit up the second time around (.355 BA, 1.283 OPS). 

This makes the first-five (F5) Under an interesting bet. The two main appeals of the opener are that it mitigates platoon advantages and pushes back the time before a starting pitcher sees the top of the lineup a second and third time through. This seems like a perfect spot in which to utilize the opener to give Cecconi every chance at success. 

On the flip side, Yamamoto has already shut out the Diamondbacks once this season and sets up well for success again against a lineup that has been below average.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)

First-five Under 4.5

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 5.5 strikeouts

No run first inning

+320 at bet365

Yamamoto is averaging 10.01 Ks per nine innings and has tossed at least six strikeouts in five of his last seven starts. Arizona has been middle of the road in K-rate (22.5%) this month and nothing stands out about this matchup, but I’d prefer to be on the bullish side for Yamamoto.

Mantiply has made 21 appearances and has given up a run in only five of them, while Yamamoto has held opponents scoreless in the first inning in six of his nine starts.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers odds

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers live odds

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers opening odds

• Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-115) | Los Angeles -1.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Arizona +185 | Los Angeles -225
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Dodgers have defended their home stadium well, going 10-1 across their last 11 games at Dodger Stadium. 
  
  
• None of Cecconi’s five starts have resulted in the total amount of runs scored exceeding nine, and four of those starts have seen eight runs or fewer. 
  
  
• The Diamondbacks have hit their first-five (F5) team total Under in 16 of their last 22 games. 

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers trend

These teams have gone 1-4 O/U across their last five meetings with one another. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers

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