| Change |
Team |
W-L
(ATS)
|
Power Rating
|
Team Comments |
| 1 |
12 |
11 |
Indiana |
21-3
(12-10-0)
|
-18.15 |
Poor Nebraska (Wednesday) and Purdue (Saturday). The Hoosiers will likely lay at least 20 points in each game and give a couple boot stompings. But Indiana is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven at home games and could look past Purdue to a trip to East Lansing. |
| 2 |
1 |
1 |
Duke |
21-2
(13-10-0)
|
-18.00 |
The Blue Devils have found their footing after losing Ryan Kelly to, well, a foot injury. But they have been shaky on the road - even against ACC bottom feeders - and they have a clear ceiling of how good they can be without Kelly, who has no timetable for return. |
| 3 |
5 |
2 |
Michigan |
21-3
(12-9-1)
|
-17.95 |
John Beilein's teams have traditionally performed better as underdogs than as heavy favorites. So it is not surprising that the Wolverines have gone just 3-5-1 ATS since they received their first votes to be No. 1 five weeks ago. |
| 4 |
9 |
5 |
Syracuse |
20-3
(12-7-0)
|
-17.80 |
The return of James Southerland takes the Orange from Final Four hopeful to Final Four favorite. He is the team's best shooter, a proven big game player, and is awkwardly effective on both ends of the court. He had been practicing with the team during his "vacation" so he should get his game back quickly. |
| 5 |
8 |
3 |
Florida |
19-3
(12-7-0)
|
-17.20 |
This team had been walking wounded for a month even before Will Yeguete's injury. The market has caught up to this team - they have lost three straight ATS - and now that they are forced to play small(er) ball it will be even tougher to cover those fat numbers. |
| 6 |
11 |
5 |
Michigan St |
20-4
(9-11-1)
|
-17.05 |
If you watched Keith Appling in November and Keith Appling in February you would think they were two different players. Watch for Denzel Valentine to step up now that Travis Trice is sidelined with another concussion. |
| 7 |
14 |
7 |
Gonzaga |
23-2
(12-10-1)
|
-17.00 |
This actually might be low for grungy Gonzaga. The Bulldogs get a chance to prove it this week as likely road favorites over St. Mary's Thursday. But the key will be to avoid the letdown Saturday on the road against a tricky, much-better-than-their-record San Francisco team. |
| 8 |
3 |
5 |
Arizona |
20-3
(10-11-0)
|
-16.85 |
For weeks I've been talking about Arizona as one of the best perimeter-defensive teams in the country. Then the Wildcats get rolled on their home court by a Cal team with essentially two guys that can walk and chew gum at the same time. Who did they think was going to score for the Bears? |
| 9 |
2 |
7 |
Miami-Florida |
19-3
(15-4-0)
|
-16.40 |
Being one of the hottest teams in the country (9-2 ATS run) doesn't make Miami the best team in the country. Any assertion otherwise severely underestimates how bad the ACC is right now. I have been on the Canes since Day 1. And I know them well enough to know their value has peaked. |
| 10 |
13 |
3 |
Butler |
20-4
(14-7-1)
|
-16.20 |
As much as I want to hate smarmy, whiny Brad Stevens and his band of Bulldogs, I have to respect the way they have manhandled an excellent A-10 this year. Butler is on an 11-4-1 ATS tear and its next three games are layups. |
| 11 |
7 |
4 |
Louisville |
19-5
(12-12-0)
|
-16.10 |
I felt embarrassed for Russ Smith and his ancestors last Saturday. He's a good player. But give me a break: He couldn't cash in on one of four last-second opportunities to win the game? He wasn't even close! |
| 12 |
18 |
6 |
Ohio St. |
17-6
(12-8-1)
|
-16.00 |
The Buckeyes need a second perimeter scoring option. Aaron Craft is not a scorer. And logging so many minutes and hoisting so many shots is wearing him down and killing his efficiency. |
| 13 |
4 |
9 |
Kansas |
20-4
(10-13-0)
|
-15.80 |
This team is a debacle offensively and should have some tough sledding on that end of the court against Texas Saturday. The Longhorns have one of best defenses in the country and will be bolstered by the return of Myck Kabonga. |
| 14 |
25 |
11 |
Georgetown |
18-4
(11-7-0)
|
-15.70 |
What the... where the hell did these guys come from? The Hoyas have quietly posted a sizzling 9-2 ATS rush. But be wary: they have played the No. 12 (of 15) ranked schedule in the Big East. With four of the next six on the road things will get tougher. |
| 15 |
19 |
4 |
N.C. State |
17-7
(11-11-0)
|
-15.25 |
"Play some defense!" I find myself yelling that at the Wolfpack at least six times per game. They have gone 10-5 over/under in their last 15 games (4-2 in L6) and it is due only partially to their efficient offense. |
| 16 |
35 |
19 |
Pittsburgh |
20-5
(9-9-0)
|
-15.15 |
Is there a player more valuable to his team than Tray Woodall? The veteran point man has been stellar. And the Panthers can avenge an OT home loss this weekend with a trip to Wisconsin to face Marquette. Beware the road favorite. |
| 17 |
37 |
20 |
Creighton |
20-5
(13-9-1)
|
-14.75 |
Creighton has been a money burner the past month at just 4-4 SU and 1-6-1 ATS. The Bluejays still have too much recognition for their spreads to drop. And with four of their next five games on the road things could get even uglier for backers. |
| 18 |
36 |
18 |
Wisconsin |
17-7
(8-14-0)
|
-14.45 |
Bo knows Big Ten wins. But don't be fooled by the Badgers' three-game winning streak. They should've lost to Iowa and Michigan and have been one of the worst bets in the nation, going just 5-12 ATS in their L17 games as a favorite. |
| 19 |
28 |
9 |
Oklahoma St. |
17-5
(11-9-1)
|
-14.05 |
With just a seven-man rotation, the Cowboys could hit a wall over the next three weeks. Oklahoma State will sleepwalk through a game at Texas Tech before a revenge Bedlam game against the Sooners this Saturday. |
| 20 |
24 |
4 |
Kansas St. |
19-5
(9-10-1)
|
-14.00 |
Very little about this team's play the last three weeks has excited me. But with three of their next four games in the Octagon, they will have ample opportunity to erase the memory of Monday's savage 21-point loss in Lawrence. |
| 21 |
15 |
6 |
Marquette |
17-6
(9-10-0)
|
-14.00 |
The Golden Eagles simply do what you need them to: they throttle bad teams (L4 wins by an average of 14 points) and lose to good ones (0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in L3 against Top 25 opponents). |
| 22 |
6 |
16 |
New Mexico |
20-4
(12-9-2)
|
-13.70 |
I need more cowbell - and more Hugh Greenwood. The X-factor for the Lobos, Greenwood is 17 for 27 in his last four games. The Lobos are 3-1 ATS in those games and are a stellar 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games. |
| 23 |
49 |
26 |
Notre Dame |
19-5
(11-10-0)
|
-13.25 |
The Irish face a letdown Wednesday against regional rival DePaul. It took OT to shake the Demons in Chicago on Feb. 2 and the home team is just 0-7 ATS when these two square off. I expect heavy chalk but wonder if the Irish have enough juice after their five-overtime thrill ride. |
| 24 |
57 |
33 |
Kentucky |
17-6
(8-12-0)
|
-12.65 |
These guys are 23 games into the season and still don't know their offense. I'm serious. Watch this team try to run a half-court set. One of three things happens: Wiltjer shoots a three, someone drives and throws a lob, or there's a turnover/awkward shot. |
| 25 |
21 |
4 |
Connecticut |
16-6
(9-9-0)
|
-12.35 |
Shabazz Napier is having an All-American season and almost no one is noticing. It is too bad that this team is not postseason eligible because they would be an outstanding value bet this March. |
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Power Ratings compute offensive and defensive statistics into one number for each team, while accounting for factors like recent performances and strength of schedule. Power Ratings can be used as a baseline for relative spread index to compare current or future match-ups between two teams. The relative spread does not account for non-statistical factors like home-field advantage, recent injuries, game time decisions, rivalries, publicity, and weather.