Real Madrid vs Manchester City Predictions and Picks: Going Down to the Wire

Two of the favorites to win the Champions League will meet in Madrid today, as Real Madrid welcomes Manchester City to the Santiago Bernabeu. Our soccer betting odds have this match too close to call.

Real Madrid looks to avenge a 5-1 aggregate defeat in last year’s semifinals, but once again will need to secure a result before heading on the road for the second leg. Los Blancos are as healthy as they’ve been all season and hope to advance from the quarter-finals for the 12th time in a row.

For Manchester City, they’ll seek to avoid getting knocked out by the Spanish side for the second time in three years after losing in the 2022 semifinals. Pep Guardiola has a bit of an injury crisis in defense and must manage his squad wisely as he’s fighting a battle on both domestic and European fronts.

Our Real Madrid vs Manchester City picks and predictions for Tuesday, April 9 explain why City’s absences at the back will make things a bit more conservative, and why that works in our favor on the betting market.

Real Madrid vs Manchester City best odds

Real Madrid vs Manchester City picks and predictions

Through Real Madrid’s eight matches in the Champions League, the Spanish side has registered 56 corner kicks taken. While they attempted just three in each of the two legs against RB Leipzig in the Round of 16, they conceded seven and eight respectively to the German outfit. 

Their opponents on Tuesday haven’t had problems earning corners of their own. Manchester City have taken 44 in their eight fixtures, managing 10 across their two legs against FC Copenhagen last round. While they haven’t conceded quite as many, they allowed seven in their group-stage match against Leipzig as well.

That last tidbit is why I’m backing this match to have 10 or more corners. Most teams that Man City come up against are prone to bunkering a bit. That puts the onus on the Citizens to run up the corner count, as they dominate possession and work the ball around looking to break down a low block to find shooting opportunities.

But that’s now how these two sides operate when they play one another. Similar to both their showdowns with Leipzig, this match is going to be more of an open affair. Both teams have pace and attacking talent, with midfielders who can spring their teammates with stellar vision and passing while firing from range with amazing accuracy.

And when you have that kind of attacking threat, combined with world-class defenders on both sides willing to put their bodies on the line to block shots, you usually see more corners. 

Then there’s the issues in defense for Pep Guardiola. Manchester City will be without two defenders, with Kyle Walker and Nathan Ake both missing the trip. In addition, Josko Gvardiol is in the squad but is a serious doubt.

It’s the Walker injury that impacts this match the most. Last year, he and Vinicius Jr put on an epic battle as Walker is one of the few defenders on the planet with the pace to match up with the Brazilian winger. Without him, Man City will have to be a bit more defensive than usual, which means more bodies between Madrid and goal — and thus, more blocked shots.

These sides have met six times in the past four years, and only once — their explosive 4-3 classic in 2022 — did they fail to combine for 10 corners over the last five showdowns. Even that match saw eight on the day. I fully expect that pattern to continue here, so take the Over on the corner market. 

My best bet: Over 9.5 corners (-118 at TonyBet)

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Real Madrid vs Manchester City same-game parlay

Over 9.5 corners

Vinicius Junior to score or assist

Real Madrid double chance

+424 at FanDuel

After missing Real Madrid’s match with Bilbao at the weekend due to suspension, Vinicius Junior will be well-rested and ready to run. He’s scored in each of his last four matches in all competitions, with six goals in that span, and will be a constant threat on the counter. 

Real Madrid have not lost at the Bernabeu this campaign, and have only two defeats across all competitions — both coming at the hands of cross-town rival Atletico Madrid. They’ve won or drawn both home fixtures against City the past two years, and I like them to do so again. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Real Madrid vs Manchester City side and Over/Under analysis

The quality of these sides is reflected in the 3-way money line. Money has come in on Real Madrid the past two days, moving them to around +175 to win, while Man City are favored at +155 to +160. The draw is priced as high as +250 despite City winning just five of their last 12 away fixtures in the competition. 

And as the odds indicate, this match is nearly impossible to predict. The talent on display, the tactical geniuses on the sideline, and the individual matchups from front to back will lead to a thrilling contest that could be decided by a single moment of brilliance. It’s important to note that UEFA permitted Madrid on Tuesday morning to close the roof of the Bernabeu — a move designed to increase the noise and atmosphere. 

Real Madrid on a draw-no-bet wager would be my best recommendation for attacking the result, although City have won all eight of their matches so far this tournament.

As for the total, the Over is favored with the oddsmakers expecting three or more goals. However, the two teams drew 1-1 here a year ago, and City’s likely to look to keep this thing close and get home with a manageable aggregate situation. 

Real Madrid have conceded just one goal in their last five home fixtures, scored by Leipzig. City have scored at least three goals in all eight of their Champions League fixtures this competition, a streak that I don’t see continuing here. That said, I do lean towards the Over as it’s hard to see City’s backline keeping Madrid at bay enough to go the other way. 

Real Madrid vs Manchester City game info

Real Madrid vs Manchester City key injuries

Real Madrid: Thibaut Courtois GK (Out), David Alaba D (Out).
Manchester City: Kyle Walker D (Out), Nathan Ake D (Out), Josko Gvardiol D (Doubtful).

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