Few North London Derbies have had more riding on them than the one we’ll see Sunday when Tottenham hosts Arsenal.
Spurs would love nothing more than to derail the title hopes of their bitter rivals, and they’ve had two weeks to rest and prepare for the match. They also need to essentially win out if they hope to have any hopes of playing in the Champions League next season.
The Gunners enter the weekend atop the table, one point ahead of Manchester City with an additional match played. Dropping points to Spurs in the Premier League odds could see them miss out on their first title in more than 20 years.
Our Premier League picks and Tottenham vs. Arsenal predictions explain why you can find profit earlier than usual in this showdown.
EPL predictions for Tottenham vs Arsenal
My best bet:
Arsenal first half moneyline (+129 at TonyBet)
My analysis
Arsenal’s been on a tear away from home of late. While the competition hasn’t been the strongest during the run, the Gunners have taken 16 of a possible 18 points in their last six away Premier League fixtures. Only a scoreless draw at Manchester City has seen them drop points.
The most impressive part of this stretch of form has been their defense. You have to go back to January 30 to find the last away goal Arsenal conceded in the league, a span of more than 450 minutes without their net being breached. And overall on the season, their 0.71 xG against per 90 minutes is by far the best mark in the league.
Meanwhile, Spurs have won nine of their last 11 matches at home in all competitions, with only defeats to Manchester City and Wolves tarnishing that run of form since the middle of December. However, much of that success has been due to their ability to find goals in the second half.
In fact, while winning five of their last six at home in the Premier League, Tottenham has trailed at halftime in four of those matches. They’ve also conceded in the first half in five, with the only outlier being their match against Crystal Palace — and even then, they conceded first with a 59th-minute goal from Eberechi Eze.
It’s for these reasons that I’m backing Arsenal to lead when the referee blows for halftime. They know a win is almost required in order to keep pace with Manchester City atop the table, and the Gunners haven’t been sitting back when playing away from the Emirates.
During this six-match stretch, only Manchester City have prevented Arsenal from scoring before halftime. In those other five fixtures, they’ve scored 12 goals before intermission, leading at halftime in all of them. Arsenal has also given up just six first-half goals in 17 away fixtures in the league, and overall, they’ve conceded only 13 big chances.
Arsenal’s 36 points away from home are the most in the Premier League, while Tottenham has led at halftime in just five of their 16 home fixtures. Back Arsenal to be ahead at halftime and avoid the possibility of another second-half comeback for Spurs.
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Tottenham vs Arsenal same-game parlay (SGP)
Arsenal first half moneyline
Declan Rice Over 1.5 shots
Guglielmo Vicario Over 2.5 saves
Declan Rice had four shots in the reverse fixture in September, and has 10 shots in his last four Premier League matches. The last three have seen him register at least two on net, which is what we’ll take for his floor.
Spurs have been dealing with some injury issues at the back, and it’s forced Guglielmo Vicario to step up. He made four saves in the first meeting while conceding twice, and I anticipate he’ll have to come up big yet again here, especially considering Vicario made 15 saves over his last five league outings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Tottenham vs Arsenal odds
Tottenham vs Arsenal live odds
Tottenham vs Arsenal opening odds
- Moneyline: Tottenham +295 | Arsenal -120
- Draw: +309
- Over/Under: Over 3 (-132) | Under 3 (+112)
Tottenham vs Arsenal side and Over/Under analysis
- Arsenal are -135 on the 3-way money line, as the line has shifted in their favor after opening with plus-odds last weekend.
- The Gunners are 12-1-1 in their last 14 Premier League matches.
- You’ll need to go to Over 3.0 to avoid heavy juice, with the Over 2.5 priced at -215 or more.
- Only one of Arsenal’s last six league fixtures have gone Over 3.0 goals, while only one of Spurs’ last 11 matches have seen fewer than 3.0 goals.
Tottenham vs Arsenal game info
| Location: | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England |
| Date: | Sunday, 4-28-2024 |
| Time: | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| TV: | USA Network |
| Weather: | 47F, 13-30mph winds, 20% chance of POP |
 Recent EPL form |
L-W-D-W-L |
 Recent EPL form |
W-W-L-W-W |
Tottenham vs Arsenal key injuries
Tottenham: Destiny Udogie D (Out), Pedro Porro D (Questionable), Richarlison F (Questionable), Ryan Sessegnon D (Out).
Arsenal: Jurrien Timber D (Out).
Not intended for use in MA.
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