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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: O/U System
CannedGoods send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 8/5/2012 11:40:29 AM
I love the systems in here but I've always wanted to develop a totals system because of the high juice that bettors like us swallow for ML systems.  Totals are best because the juice is always essentially even money. Anyways, I think I found one and I *think* it's perfect on the year, but I just started tracking it on paper now so beware (especially with the roster expansion forthcoming).  I wanted to track it privately first, so I asked Degen to make me a spreadsheet to pick out the plays for me because I'm too lazy to do the work myself but in return he asked me to post it here for all to see sooo I will.

It's pretty straight forward.  Team Rankings has an O/U trend section and I thought to myself "If two teams who both have a high rate of hitting over/under play eachother, the corresponding over/under should hit in at least one game..."  It's a chase system, although I think even playing every game just straight up would be profitable as apparently just the past two games I'm 4-0-2 so far in 55%+ plays anyways.

The cutoff for now will be 53%.  This means both teams have to have a certian O/U trend of at least 53% on the year to become a "play". I was gonna make it 54% but I'm greedy. So any 53-54% will be considered "unofficial" but everything 54+ we'll consider official.  To those of you confused, I'll start posting plays tomorrow.  This past series there were 5 plays, 3 official and 2 unofficial, and the system went 3-1-1 on day 1 and on day 2 we went 2-0 for a perfect 5-0 on the chase.  Yes, we will chase pushes.

For anybody confused feel free to ask questions I know sometimes I get confused at first too reading a new system but once I see a few plays it clicks.  This is a REALLY easy/basic system so it shouldn't be a problem for people to catch on to.  Just trying to give back to the Covers systems community which has been so good to my bankroll.  I wouldn't be where I am today as a capper without this forum.

Here's a link to the downloadable spreadsheet (big thanks to DegenGambler).  Looking forward to seeing how well this works! Should be a fun ride.


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#2
Posted: 8/6/2012 9:33:50 AM
Official Plays for new series starting August 6th:
ARI (54%) @ PIT (56.7%); A game "Under"
SEA (55.9%) @ BAL (56.4%); A game "Under"
NYY (59.8%) @ DET (56%); A game "Under"
LAA (55.3%) @ OAK (60%); A game "Under"
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#3
Posted: 8/6/2012 12:09:22 PM

Hope it holds up over time......wish I bet it this past series - it went 6-0-3

6 units in 3 days.....that's good stuff

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#4
Posted: 8/6/2012 1:09:17 PM
CannedGoods your spreadsheet is displaying 'Run Time error 1004' when update button is clicked. can u fix it. nice job
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#5
Posted: 8/6/2012 1:26:52 PM
this is a simple but powerful system. i think it would go through 
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Randisist
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#6
Posted: 8/6/2012 2:36:47 PM
I do like the system and see how it works. Excellent observations.

I do appreciate the spreadsheet and all your work. The spreadsheet clarified things very well. There is a glitch in the spreadsheet I downloaded. For some reason when I hit Update button it did not pull down all the teams data. Philadelphia Phillies trend data was not downloaded and #N/A was recorded in column B, Team column of the OU Trend tab. The error comment is "A value is not available to the formula or function."

With your excellent explanation and the clarity of the spreadsheet. Cutting and pasting to a spreadsheet each morn would not be a problem.

Thank You and

I fly out to Vegas for a month in the morn to do some sports betting... We shall see how this plays out .
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#7
Posted: 8/6/2012 5:41:42 PM
With my luck - it will go south the second I start betting it.  It will go 100-0 if I lay off -
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#8
Posted: 8/7/2012 8:15:29 AM
3-1 on A games...only loss was by one run

NYY/DET B game for the Under
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#9
Posted: 8/7/2012 11:48:08 PM
Well...we had the under...until NY decided to score two meaningless runs in the 9th...

Ahh well let's test this girl early and often.  NYY/DET C game for the under tomorrow!!
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#10
Posted: 8/8/2012 10:54:29 PM
poor system
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#11
Posted: 8/8/2012 11:12:13 PM
D game tmrw for those following
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#12
Posted: 8/9/2012 1:02:38 PM
Interesting system. I have been tracking something similiar except I use a chase based on the home team (ballpark effects). I also use 58%. I find it interesting that AZ was at 54% overall for unders but my records show them at almost 53% OVER at home. That makes me wonder if the criteria should be based on a team's o/u based on whether they are home or away. That last part wasn't meant as a suggested change to this system, but rather mine, just thinking out loud...
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#13
Posted: 8/9/2012 5:58:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Interesting system. I have been tracking something similiar except I use a chase based on the home team (ballpark effects). I also use 58%. I find it interesting that AZ was at 54% overall for unders but my records show them at almost 53% OVER at home. That makes me wonder if the criteria should be based on a team's o/u based on whether they are home or away. That last part wasn't meant as a suggested change to this system, but rather mine, just thinking out loud...


What's ironic is I was thinking the exact same thing earlier this week...I feel like on paper it would make it that much more accurate although some teams are likely low/high scoring regardless of venue. Prime example: NYY and DET.  They went to a 4th game, luckily the under cashed.  NYY hits 54% unders on the road as opposed to 61.8% at home and DET hits 54% on the road as opposed to 51% at home.  Therefore it would have been NYY 54% on the road and DET 51% at home...no play, however if it were at Yankee Stadium, with NYY at nearly 62% and DET at 54% it would have been a play.  Definitely something to consider.
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#14
Posted: 8/9/2012 6:11:03 PM
NYY/DET D game cashes!!   Brings the system to 9-0

Two more chases starting tonight: KC/BAL and CIN/CHC.  Both under plays.

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#15
Posted: 8/9/2012 9:02:45 PM

Thinking I may adapt this for football too - Teamrankings has O/U trends for the NFL as well.

Maybe show 2011 trend and 2012 game to date trend and if they both agree and are above 54% - it could be a bet.

Thoughts?

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#16
Posted: 8/9/2012 9:30:43 PM
CG - check your PM as well
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#17
Posted: 8/13/2012 12:54:54 PM
Sorry guys, was away this wknd, couldn't post plays.  Did track them though. For everyone's information, I'm going to start running two versions (well 3 lol).  Version 1 is the normal standard two teams with high over/unders for the season overall.  Version 2 will be similar, except we'll use home and road splits as opposed to using the overall season, to attempt greater accuracy.  And version "3" will just be me tracking additionally the series that fall into both versions.  I don't know which one will prove to be best, maybe they'll all be perfect lol, but we'll try it for now and see which one of the 3 prevail without loss, either overall, H/R split or both.

Version 1 over the weekend went 5-0.  Version 2 went 4-0.  There were two of these series that qualified under both and obviously they both were winners as well (2-0).  LAA and SEA went to an elusive 3rd game and it cashed on the under

Version 1 (overall season trend) A games for today (14-0 YTD):
TEX @ NYY "Under"
MIL @ COL "Over"
TB @ SEA "Under"

Version 2 (appropriate home/road splits trend) A games for today (4-0 YTD):
TEX @ NYY "Under"
PHI @ MIA "Over"
TB @ SEA "Under"

Series that qualify under both categories (2-0 YTD):
TEX @ NYY "Under"
TB @ SEA "Under"
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#18
Posted: 8/13/2012 1:45:52 PM

Hey CG,

I love the simplicity of this. Very nice find. Does line movement have an impact on this system?

For instance, in this case, NYY/Tex opened at 10 and has already moved down to 9.5. Do we still take the under?

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#19
Posted: 8/13/2012 2:23:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:

Hey CG,

I love the simplicity of this. Very nice find. Does line movement have an impact on this system?

For instance, in this case, NYY/Tex opened at 10 and has already moved down to 9.5. Do we still take the under?



Good question.  I find for the most part if an under is gonna hit...it's gonna hit.  The game will finish 2-0 or 3-1 and there's just no way oddsmakers can adjust for that.

That being said, the most important marker for us is what Team Rankings has as their line (as they track our information).  They adjust their lines and base their tracking off of closing numbers, so grabbing it at open isn't too important. They currently have the NYY/TEX line at 9.5, so it is okay.  Buy your bet at this number. However, if for example they had their line still at 10, I'd recommend buying to at least 10 or even 10.5 (to avoid a push, see my next paragraph) just to be safe.  Yes I'm aware for a total the juice on a whole extra run "sucks" but when compared to some of the ML systems we've dreamt up, I'll gladly pay -145 or -155 for a  winning bet, considering I'd be ecstatic to get some of the ML bets I make this late in in the season at that price

As mentioned above, and something I personally plan on doing, is buying half runs to avoid pushes.  We could chase pushes and likely make out okay but buying the extra half run will just ensure the most optimal results and avoid less stress haha.

So yes to answer your question, 9.5 is okay because that's what TR has.  Lock it in!!
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#20
Posted: 8/13/2012 2:36:17 PM
Great work CG!
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#21
Posted: 8/14/2012 11:24:01 AM
Dang.  TEX @ NYY barely misses...

Anyways, MIL/COL, TB/SEA cash, onto game B's for all other chases.

V1:
TEX @ NYY "Under" B
OAK @ KC "Under" A

V2:
TEX @ NYY "Under" B
PHI @ MIA "Over" B

V3:
TEX @ NYY B
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#22
Posted: 8/14/2012 11:58:21 AM
Philly's & Rockies combined this year on all 3 & 4 GM series have had atleast one game go over 68 out of 71 times...

Philly 34-1
Rockies 34-2
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#23
Posted: 8/14/2012 12:54:28 PM
.....so do you bet TEX/NYY 3 times today or just stick to one version and bet it?
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#24
Posted: 8/14/2012 3:29:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gasman33:

.....so do you bet TEX/NYY 3 times today or just stick to one version and bet it?


Lol you could as it is a "triple play" but personally I'm just betting it once.  I'm just tracking them all separately to see which system is better long term.  Realistically you could probably bet it twice if you wanted to...it does fall into both systems which would on paper make it a stronger play than OAK/KC and PHI/MIA...
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#25
Posted: 8/14/2012 10:35:54 PM
CG, how are you feeling about an over tomorrow with Doc on the mound?
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