To hedge or not to hedge?

So, what would you guys do?  I really like the Chips in this game, but i don't want to lose out on a chance to lock in $$$.

Quote Originally Posted by iron_mike:

van, i have asked you repeatedly to stop making sensealso bonk how did us dumb money ndame backers do?

You dumb Notre Dame backers cleaned up.  As did I with the over (for the half and the game.  I expected Hawaii to put up alot more points, but was fine with ND doing it.)  Pushed on two if bets with over and Hawaii.

Listen, all I said in criticism about one guy backing ND was that he was using ND's strength of schedule as his reasoning, which was absurd, as their schedule was a joke.  ND won, big and easy, and I was wrong in my assessment of the game.  But, ND still sucks.

Congrats on your ND win.  However, I am fairly certain your handicapping record is unblemished and you've probably posted a few losers on here as well. 

Bonk,

Im only going to do this once, and this is an effort to help you with the many parlays yet to come - not the one you have today....

If you would have bet a 2 team parlay with Dallas and the Dallas over, and left off the football game, you would be in a position today to bet the football game for as much as you wanted - essentially the same as hedging the parlay you have now - but you wouldnt be paying double vig on the football game.

Read that again.  If you dont understand it, or have the urge to debate it, trust me - you are better off betting this way - it is the same exact bet but for more money.

Good luck.

Why am I doing this?

Actually, it seems like you might need some help from "someone like me".

Your 2 team parlay would have paid 1,336 (including your original 250 stake).  So your math is wrong.

And if you included the football game in the parlay because you anticipated a line move, a smarter bet would have been a straight bet on CMU -6.5.

Sorry, but you dont know what you are talking about, and while you are not the first here to argue with mathematics and lose - you just joined the illustrious list.

So, what would you guys do?  I really like the Chips in this game, but i don't want to lose out on a chance to lock in $$$.

Sir,

Kindly read what I am about to post:

You are forgetting to add in the 250 of your original stake which would be available to bet on tonights football game - so that makes it approximately 1350.

Think.

Love the anology. 

Right now, i am leaning towards letting it ride.  I liked CMU and now the line is moving a bit.  If it goes to 7.5 or (praying) 8, them I will make a big hedge and look for the middle.  If the line stays, I will probably just let it rid and watch the game. 

You are in the same position you are now without having to lay vig twice to hedge.

The only "strategy" you are using is to pay too much for the same thing you could be paying less for.

Here is a golden rule - and it cant be argued:

If you are in a position to hedge a parlay, you have already made a fundamental error.

Read it again, think about it, it is mathematics.

Super.  So, $2,300 tonight + $1,110 last night (depending on your payout, mine was $1,100.)  = $2,410.  So we are disagreeing $100.  I really don't care about $50 or $100.  Additionally, if the line runs, I now have a chance to hit a big middle.

Thanks for all the advice, Van.  If you don't like parlays and hedges, that is great for you.  You play your strategies, I'll play mine.