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Author:	[Penalty Box] Topic: What if I told you this play won't lose...
TheGameChanger	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Jun 2012 Posts: 43 Location:	#1 Posted: 8/20/2012 4:53:19 PM I would be right! First ever ALL-IN play for me. Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 Writeup later
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KktdocT	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Covers Rehab Joined: Jan 2006 Posts: 60701 Location: United Kingdom	#2 Posted: 8/20/2012 4:54:29 PM GL, mate.
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TheGameChanger	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Jun 2012 Posts: 43 Location:	#3 Posted: 8/20/2012 4:57:22 PM Thanks guys...If it wins I am going to cash out the winnings and buy the wife a new car....I will keep the rest in for the NFL regular season. It is our wedding anniv. coming up, so I thought it would be a nice surprise for her to have a new car.
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txtechpika	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Apr 2012 Posts: 5196 Location: Texas	#4 Posted: 8/20/2012 4:58:52 PM Horrible idea what if you lose what will you get her? McDonald's gift card?
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Fresh209	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Aug 2012 Posts: 199 Location:	#5 Posted: 8/20/2012 4:59:07 PM Good luck to you, sir! Maybe one day I'll feel as confident as you to move all-in on a bet! BOL on your winnings
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kerryvonerick	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Hall of Fame Joined: Nov 2008 Posts: 22992 Location: United States	#6 Posted: 8/20/2012 5:03:13 PM GL
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EazyFBaby	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Nov 2010 Posts: 2273 Location: United States	#7 Posted: 8/20/2012 5:04:15 PM Yes i have the over 9! This makes me feel great about my play!
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shawty321	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 686 Location:	#8 Posted: 8/20/2012 5:05:13 PM Fukkk this is the guy that won that new York mets bets a while back..... I'm on the other side. You srs on this one bro like the last couple?
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shawty321	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 686 Location:	#9 Posted: 8/20/2012 5:07:59 PM And by a while back I mean last Sunday... You also had another "guarentee" that hit.. Very tempted
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Denson7	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.com \|
Veteran Joined: Jan 2012 Posts: 2907 Location: Ohio	#10 Posted: 8/20/2012 5:12:30 PM I hope you win. But be careful because the Diamondbacks smoke lefties with runs per 9. What kind of car bro?
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Donnie_Baseball	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Apr 2012 Posts: 1937 Location: California	#11 Posted: 8/20/2012 5:13:47 PM
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TheGameChanger	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Jun 2012 Posts: 43 Location:	#12 Posted: 8/20/2012 5:23:10 PM txtech - I have had money in my online accounts for years before we have ever been married. I have never added money to those accounts...cashed out some portions of winnings before. If I lose, I lose. She is not going to know the difference. Denson - I know all too well about the D-Backs crushing lefties...I have spent a lot of time on this game. There are actually a ton more trends, stats, etc. that would indicate the Over 9 runs is the correct play here...but I am not buying it one bit. Good luck!
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#13 Posted: 8/20/2012 5:31:39 PM I'll preface this by saying I'm on the over for a unit. "Take a closer look at Joe Saunders splits. This is how he performs against righties: 5.57 K/9 2.11 K/BB 1.42 HR/9 .281 BA .299 BABIP 4.81 FIP 4.79 xFIP Those are terrible numbers.. and indicates that in a hitters friendly park like Arizona, he has an ERA-probability of almost 5 against any team that can field a team of competent right-handers. Well this was Miami's most recent line-up against a lefty (yesterday v. Pomeranz): 1. Emilio Bonifacio (S) CF 2. Justin Ruggiano (R) LF 3. Jose Reyes (S) SS 4. Carlos Lee (R) 1B 5. Giancarlo Stanton (R) RF 6. Donnie Murphy (R) 3B 7. John Buck (R) C 8. Donovan Solano (R) 2B 9. Mark Buehrle (L) P * *Substitute Mark Buehrle and this is pretty much what you can expect from the Marlins this evening. That's certainly a competent bunch of 8 guys that will be swinging right-handed - especially the 1-5 spots. Zona's bullpen has been tough lately, but I'm expecting the Marlins to get 5 with this line-up against Saunders and the D-Backs staff." Throw on top of this that Mark Buehrle ranks in my bottom 30 pitchers over the last 30 days (out of 164) and that the Diamondbacks offense ranks #5 in the MLB against lefties and I see a lot of reasons to back the over. There are only two things I don't like, Arizona's bullpen performance as of late (which has been stellar) and the steam towards the under overnight and into this morning.
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shawty321	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 686 Location:	#14 Posted: 8/20/2012 5:31:45 PM .....patiently awaiting write up.....
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TheGameChanger	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Jun 2012 Posts: 43 Location:	#15 Posted: 8/20/2012 5:39:20 PM Silly - I totally agree with all of what you said...and wrote...I appreciate the time you put into that. I saw all of that as well...I also saw the home/away splits for both starters that would indicate this easily goes over 9 runs. I also saw the day/night splits for these pitchers, both of which would also indicate the over 9 runs is the easy play....couple all of the stats, numbers, splits, lineups, etc. and you see that Over 9 is clearly the correct play...but yet this line has moved down from 9.5 to 9. I totally would love to jump on the over to after looking at nothing but support for the over, but the line moving the other way I know for a fact that I am playing this on the right side. Trust me...this play is solid.
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TheGameChanger	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Jun 2012 Posts: 43 Location:	#16 Posted: 8/20/2012 5:46:40 PM shawty321 - Don't expect the writeup to soon. I have yoga to attend yet...won't be for a few hours for sure. Thanks.
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HutchEmAll	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Legend Joined: Jan 2004 Posts: 34848 Location: Minnesota	#17 Posted: 8/20/2012 5:55:31 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by TheGameChanger: Silly - I totally agree with all of what you said...and wrote...I appreciate the time you put into that. I saw all of that as well...I also saw the home/away splits for both starters that would indicate this easily goes over 9 runs. I also saw the day/night splits for these pitchers, both of which would also indicate the over 9 runs is the easy play....couple all of the stats, numbers, splits, lineups, etc. and you see that Over 9 is clearly the correct play...but yet this line has moved down from 9.5 to 9. I totally would love to jump on the over to after looking at nothing but support for the over, but the line moving the other way I know for a fact that I am playing this on the right side. Trust me...this play is solid. Ahhh, the trap. McDonalds gift card.
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EazyFBaby	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Nov 2010 Posts: 2273 Location: United States	#18 Posted: 8/20/2012 6:00:36 PM Dude majority is taking the over yet the line moved down what are you talking about?
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halofan	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: May 2012 Posts: 2759 Location:	#19 Posted: 8/20/2012 6:01:52 PM If you told me that I'd think of Stanford and think youre a fukkin idiot. You did ask.
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shawty321	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 686 Location:	#20 Posted: 8/20/2012 6:02:27 PM brb putting life savings and entire college fund on this
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Raider99	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 337 Location:	#21 Posted: 8/20/2012 6:07:41 PM I will throw 10 units on it.......... BOL!!!!!
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Trader4	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Stations \|
Rookie Joined: Jul 2003 Posts: 637 Location: Nevada	#22 Posted: 8/20/2012 6:08:15 PM Miami facing lefties coming off a lefty are 1-5 this year. In those 5 losses they have scored a total of 6 runs.
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#23 Posted: 8/20/2012 6:09:53 PM I do not like the reverse line movement one bit, but that wasn't enough to sway me off this bet this time. Best of luck.
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cisco	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports \|
All-Star Joined: Dec 2000 Posts: 11595 Location: Mexico	#24 Posted: 8/20/2012 6:16:08 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Denson7: What kind of car bro? Yugo
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pinballwizard	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Captain Joined: Jun 2009 Posts: 7770 Location: Canada	#25 Posted: 8/20/2012 6:24:38 PM Certainly looking forward to your writeup for this under 9 selection TheGameChanger.
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