If You Want to Fade Joe "Square" Public..........

You have to know what "he" is betting. The following list shows only those teams where the books are getting 80% or more action on one side. The first three are getting way over 90% of the action:

Phillies 97% (they have lost 2 in a row even tho receiving 90% the last 2 games)

STL CARDS 94% They will be one of the most popular teams every day, next to the Yanks and Phils.

New York Mets 92% Have also had their jerseys handed to them by the D-Backs. Public loves the "probability" or "revenge" angle" (they can't lose the "getaway game")

Rest are getting 70%-80%

70-80%

CHISOX

LAA

MINNY

NYY

BOSOX

TORONTO

FLORIDA (On the road no less)

COLORADO

ATLANTA

(If it's not on the list, the action is close to 50-50--where the books are ok either way)

I like WASH today even with out this

GL Today QL

The aforementioned games are the 'dirty dozen' that just about everyday if you faded these kinds of overwhelming public choices, you would make a profit--since these FAVS are paying a lot less.

My point is to have you know which games could go the other way, and maybe instead of ripping up tickets and smashing your computer monitor, you could play even, or make money, by avoiding them, going the other way, or playing the totals.

BOL

Just jump on Hamels, and it will be their party the rest of the way.

Sometimes the "public" wins. Otherwise, there would be no point in gambling.

Todays winners:

Philadelphia
Texas
Kansas City
St Louis
Colorado
San Diego
Dodgers

I can see 2 of the 3 may happen, but that Wash is tough to play:

Lannan vs PHI career 0-7, 6.32 ERA in 9 starts (47 IP).

Hamels vs WAS career 9-3, 2.58 ERA in 17 starts (108.1 IP). 

This is a fairly big sample size, were not just talking about a few starts.  It's hard to play against these numbers.  If anything, I'll be hammering the Phils.  One of us will win on this one.  BOL

If you like -1, you can get a better line by betting some on the ML and some -1.5. Pinnacle basically rips you off by about 3 cents on every -1 line. It just takes a little algebra, but it's well worth it. Here is an example.

Pinnacle
White Sox (-132)
White Sox -1.5 (+164)
White Sox -1 (+111)

Instead of betting 100 to win 111 at -1, do this.
Bet $56.90 at -132 to win $43.11
Bet $43.11 at -1.5 (+164) to win $70.70.
If White Sox win by 1, you break even, just like the -1 line.
If they win by 2 or more, you win $113.81 instead of $111.
So, you get almost +114 instead of +111

You just have to know how much to bet on the ML, then bet all the would be profits from that on the -1.5 line. To figure out how much to bet on the ML, just do this.
Take 100/132=.7576
Add 1 = 1.7576
Take 100 and divide by 1.7576.
=56.90

Do you really think that the Angels are getting 70-80% of the action today against Cliff Lee and the Angels