Posted:
#1
YTD Posted 10-2-0
A tip that I've used to make some extra cash: fade hot cappers when they start to go cold if you don't think they can beat 55% in the long run. I went 3-1 last night fading Matrixx.
https://sportsgambling.about.com/od/experiencedbettorsonly/a/followers.htm
Read that article for more information.
My pick today will go against the public big time, Philadelphia +3.5. Before I decided on this play officially I went through the forum to see why Phoenix backers were backing Phoenix, and the top reasons Suns backers had were:
1. Revenge
2. They need to win to stay in the race in the West
3. They just lost to the best teams in the East and the Sixers are overrated
I'll go through each of them and discuss why each is not a valid, but instead just a reach to justify backing the Suns. If you've read my threads before you may know my opinion of using "revenge" to cap a game. Are the Suns going to try extra hard tonight because the Sixers beat them last time? The Suns will try just as hard as they did when they played Boston and Detroit, or any other team that they play this late in the season. Each game is important, so the Suns aren't going to slack off one game and then decide they are going to try extra extra hard against Philly because they were beaten before by them. "Revenge" is not a good reason to back any team. The "they need to keep up in the West" argument is not valid either. Didn't they need to "keep up in the West" against Boston, or Detroit? They lost both those games... Teams DO lose, even when they "need to win". If every team that "needed to win" won, then what would happen in the playoffs? Every team can't win... Lastly, the Sixers are not overrated by any means, and two losses in a row by the Suns doesn't mean they are "due for a win", it just means that they are playing poorly right now and the Sixers will have an easier game because of it. I don't see any good reason to back the Suns.
With that said, here are my reasons for backing the Sixers. I think it is safe to say, at this point, that the Sixers are not frauds. Along with going 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games, they are 8-2 SU in their last 8 games, including home victories over Denver and San Antonio and away victories over Detroit and Boston--two teams that just beat Phoenix, Boston in blowout fashion. The Sixers are 12-1 SU in their last 13 home games, with their only loss coming to the Celtics, a team they just showed they can beat a few days ago, on the road. Going against a Sixers team at home, especially when the Sixers are underdogs, makes no sense. They have lost ONCE in thirteen games at home. The Suns, on the other hand, cannot manage to beat a decent team on the road. The last time they beat an elite team on the road since the Shaq trade was... oh wait, they haven't. And yes, the Sixers can be considered an elite team now. What more do they have to do to prove that to the public? They've beaten the best teams in the league both at home and on the road. The Suns are starting to click at home, but on the road, they are struggling. The 110-105 OT loss to the Pistons may seem to offer credibility to the Suns on the road, but it doesn't. The Pistons are playing average basketball of late as they let their bench players log major minutes in order to allow their starters to rest. Hamilton also sat out against the Suns. The Celtics handled the Suns the other night, holding them to just 68 shots. Stifling defense thwarts this team, especially on the road. Well, the Sixers are doing exactly that--playing stifling defense, especially at home. Except for the 113 points they allowed against the offensive giants known as the Nuggets, they have been shutting teams down. They allowed 90 points to the exact same Celtics team that the Suns allowed 117 to two nights later.
The Suns, on the other hand, are playing very poor defense, allowing 107 ppg in their last 5. The Sixers are shooting 48% in their previous 5 games. They will have no problem putting up points against this team. They shot 56% on 90 possessions in their last head to head match up with the Suns, but shot only 60% from the line. Expect a 70% FT shooting performance tonight.
Let's discuss Vegas' perspective. Why would Vegas give 3.5 points to one of the best home teams in the league to a shaky Suns team on the road? First, the public perceives the Suns as a team improving quickly since their sloppy start after the Shaq trade, and everyone loves to back Amare and Nash. Second, the Sixers, despite having shown the caliber of their team, are still not getting the same respect as the other elite teams. The Suns were 7 point underdogs to the Celtics the other night, and now they are 3 point favorites to the Sixers. Lines makers are essentially saying the Celtics are 10 points better than the Sixers... 10 points!? This is a Sixers team that just beat the Celtics and Pistons ON THE ROAD, and the Spurs and Nuggets at home. The Sixers are still underrated, if anything, and the Suns, simply, are overrated. Linesmakers could have set this line at 5 or 6 and recieved 50/50 action, but they opened it at 2 to get heavy action on the Suns, and the line has moved as a result. I will happily take the points with hot offensive and stifling defense of the Philadelphia 76ers at home against the average Phoenix Suns. Don't think Dalembert can match up against Amare or Shaq? We'll see about that. The Wachovia Center will sell out in Philadelphia tonight as the 76ers buzz is spreading around the city. Expect the confident Sixers to play as hard as they can in front of an energizing crowd and score 120 points on this weak Suns defensive team.
Take Philly +3.5. Good luck
A tip that I've used to make some extra cash: fade hot cappers when they start to go cold if you don't think they can beat 55% in the long run. I went 3-1 last night fading Matrixx.
https://sportsgambling.about.com/od/experiencedbettorsonly/a/followers.htm
Read that article for more information.
My pick today will go against the public big time, Philadelphia +3.5. Before I decided on this play officially I went through the forum to see why Phoenix backers were backing Phoenix, and the top reasons Suns backers had were:
1. Revenge
2. They need to win to stay in the race in the West
3. They just lost to the best teams in the East and the Sixers are overrated
I'll go through each of them and discuss why each is not a valid, but instead just a reach to justify backing the Suns. If you've read my threads before you may know my opinion of using "revenge" to cap a game. Are the Suns going to try extra hard tonight because the Sixers beat them last time? The Suns will try just as hard as they did when they played Boston and Detroit, or any other team that they play this late in the season. Each game is important, so the Suns aren't going to slack off one game and then decide they are going to try extra extra hard against Philly because they were beaten before by them. "Revenge" is not a good reason to back any team. The "they need to keep up in the West" argument is not valid either. Didn't they need to "keep up in the West" against Boston, or Detroit? They lost both those games... Teams DO lose, even when they "need to win". If every team that "needed to win" won, then what would happen in the playoffs? Every team can't win... Lastly, the Sixers are not overrated by any means, and two losses in a row by the Suns doesn't mean they are "due for a win", it just means that they are playing poorly right now and the Sixers will have an easier game because of it. I don't see any good reason to back the Suns.
With that said, here are my reasons for backing the Sixers. I think it is safe to say, at this point, that the Sixers are not frauds. Along with going 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games, they are 8-2 SU in their last 8 games, including home victories over Denver and San Antonio and away victories over Detroit and Boston--two teams that just beat Phoenix, Boston in blowout fashion. The Sixers are 12-1 SU in their last 13 home games, with their only loss coming to the Celtics, a team they just showed they can beat a few days ago, on the road. Going against a Sixers team at home, especially when the Sixers are underdogs, makes no sense. They have lost ONCE in thirteen games at home. The Suns, on the other hand, cannot manage to beat a decent team on the road. The last time they beat an elite team on the road since the Shaq trade was... oh wait, they haven't. And yes, the Sixers can be considered an elite team now. What more do they have to do to prove that to the public? They've beaten the best teams in the league both at home and on the road. The Suns are starting to click at home, but on the road, they are struggling. The 110-105 OT loss to the Pistons may seem to offer credibility to the Suns on the road, but it doesn't. The Pistons are playing average basketball of late as they let their bench players log major minutes in order to allow their starters to rest. Hamilton also sat out against the Suns. The Celtics handled the Suns the other night, holding them to just 68 shots. Stifling defense thwarts this team, especially on the road. Well, the Sixers are doing exactly that--playing stifling defense, especially at home. Except for the 113 points they allowed against the offensive giants known as the Nuggets, they have been shutting teams down. They allowed 90 points to the exact same Celtics team that the Suns allowed 117 to two nights later.
The Suns, on the other hand, are playing very poor defense, allowing 107 ppg in their last 5. The Sixers are shooting 48% in their previous 5 games. They will have no problem putting up points against this team. They shot 56% on 90 possessions in their last head to head match up with the Suns, but shot only 60% from the line. Expect a 70% FT shooting performance tonight.
Let's discuss Vegas' perspective. Why would Vegas give 3.5 points to one of the best home teams in the league to a shaky Suns team on the road? First, the public perceives the Suns as a team improving quickly since their sloppy start after the Shaq trade, and everyone loves to back Amare and Nash. Second, the Sixers, despite having shown the caliber of their team, are still not getting the same respect as the other elite teams. The Suns were 7 point underdogs to the Celtics the other night, and now they are 3 point favorites to the Sixers. Lines makers are essentially saying the Celtics are 10 points better than the Sixers... 10 points!? This is a Sixers team that just beat the Celtics and Pistons ON THE ROAD, and the Spurs and Nuggets at home. The Sixers are still underrated, if anything, and the Suns, simply, are overrated. Linesmakers could have set this line at 5 or 6 and recieved 50/50 action, but they opened it at 2 to get heavy action on the Suns, and the line has moved as a result. I will happily take the points with hot offensive and stifling defense of the Philadelphia 76ers at home against the average Phoenix Suns. Don't think Dalembert can match up against Amare or Shaq? We'll see about that. The Wachovia Center will sell out in Philadelphia tonight as the 76ers buzz is spreading around the city. Expect the confident Sixers to play as hard as they can in front of an energizing crowd and score 120 points on this weak Suns defensive team.
Take Philly +3.5. Good luck
0
Oh well,with the plays i have tonight either it will be (insert fireworks) or (insert dynamite). 
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