Here's the breakdown by BetExposure:
Dirk Nowitzki ignored the pain from his torn tendon in his left middle finger and used that hand to tie the series 1-1 in one of the most incredible come-from-behind wins in NBA finals history.
It was the second time in 4 playoff games that Dallas erased a 15 point deficit in the 4th quarter. Erasing that big a margin in the 4th has only happened 4 times in the last 10 NBA post-seasons, the other two were the Blazers against the Mavs in the 1st round this year and the Celtics vs. the Nets in 2002.
It was the 1st time this happened in the finals since the Bulls came back to beat the Blazers in 1992.
So what happened?
For starters, the first three quarters Miami was 17-for-26 from inside 15 feet, with Dwyane Wade going 10-for-11.
In the 4th they stopped going inside though, attempting only 4 of their 18 shots from inside 15 feet, with the only attempt in the final 6:19 a missed layup by LeBron James.
Another factor was that Dallas reversed the rebounding differential from -10 in game 1 to +11 in game 2.
Finally, Dwyane Wade and LeBron James denied that they celebrated in front of the Dallas Mavericks’ bench after the Heat went up 88-73 with 7:14 left in the game, but replays sure made it seem that way.
It left a lot of lingering questions, including why Chris Bosh was guarding Dirk instead of Udonis Haslem, who had done a good job throughout the game, and why they let Nowitzki execute the play while Miami had a foul to give.
But the most important question of course is what can we expect now?
After that other win where they erased a 15 point deficit on the road, the Mavs went home and took a 13-7 lead, then allowed the Thunder to come back and take the lead throughout most of the game up to the last minute, where they won the game but failed to cover. Of course that spread was -6.5 and a bit harder to cover than the -2.5 currently.
The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.
But the Mavericks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite, 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. win, 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a ATS win, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Miami is only 7-15-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings overall, but 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Dallas, with the road team going 20-8-1 in the last 29.
A bit more consistency can be found in the total.
The Over is 12-3 in the Mavs' last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 6-1-1 in their last 8 playoff games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5 and 9-3 in their last 12 games following a S.U. win.
The Over is also 5-1 in the last 6 games following a S.U. loss by Miami, 15-7 in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Either way, expect both teams to leave it all on the floor.
Since the NBA went to the 2-3-2 format in 1985, with the series tied 1-1, the Game 3 winner has won the championship all 11 times.
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