Posted:
#1
YTD Record:
Overall: 136-119-2, +122.90 units 
UFC: 105-96-1, +90.35 units
Strikeforce: 13-11, +10.50 units
SF Challengers: 5-2, +9.35 units
Bellator: 12-9-1, +12.70 units
KSW: 1-1, +0.00 units 
Final 2010 Record: 115-119-3, +11.25 Units
Final 2009 Record: 80-82-1, +23.75 Units
UFC 140 will be the 3rd live event I am attending live this year! I am a fight club member, and even though I logged on right when the tickets went on sale, I still ended up with some pretty shitty seats. Oh well, at least I am going...
I think there are a lot of dogs that have a legit shot of cashing in. I am either going to have a really good night, or I am going to bomb out miserably...
Here are the plays:
1. TBA - I am going to lock in and post this one in the morning, as I think the line will move a little better in my favour over night.
2. Constantinos Philippou (+180) over Jared Hamman. Risking 6 units to win 10.85 units. This is very much a value play for me. Hamman should not be laying -200 to -225 against anybody! He beat an overrated CB Dollway and all of a sudden people think he is a threat at middleweight? Give me a break! What do you think the line on this fight would have been if he had lost that fight? It would have been close to a Pick. Hamman has some gaping holes in his game, which other Hamman opponents, including Dolloway exposed. CB exposed Hamman in the first round of that fight, before he got cocky, caught, and finished in the second. Phillippou won't let that happen, not with Serra yelling at him from the corner. Phillippou is not the greatest middleweight in the world, but I think he has more upside potential and the tools to expose Hamman's weaknesses. As I said, I think there is tremendous value in this line!
3. Walel Watson (+158) over Yves Jabouin. Risking 4 units to win 6.3 units. I think Watson is an up and coming prospect with a lot of upside potential at 135, and I think this will be the last time we get juicy odds on him for a while. I successfully cashed in on Watson as a dog against Sandoval a few months back. Although Watson is known for his submission game, his striking game seems solid as well, especially using his kicks to keep his opponents at bay. Jabouin is nothing more than a gatekeeper at 135 and is giving up significant height and reach in this fight. He was able to close the distance well against Garza and hit him with some solid kicks of his own, but got subbed for his efforts. I think this fight plays out the same. I am shocked that Jabouin is this big of a favourite in this fight...
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