Big Daddy's Double Diamond Overwhelmingly Likely Wins

Welcome to those of you who know me from the Tradesports Forum where I never lost a single sports pick in over FOUR years of posting.
That's right. Not one. In fact, ought of 45 plays I only lost 3 (all political.)

I've decided to introduce my new statistical analysis approach here at covers. These NFL picks are discovered by mixing Big Daddy's knack for handicapping the games with hard core high level mathematical analysis which includes, but is not limited to the following:

Defensive Efficiency
SackS
Penalty Rates.
Running vs  Passing Efficiencies

I need a few weeks worth of data before I can get a handle on how accurate this model is. I thought I would wait a couple more weeks, but this model (combined with Big Daddy's phenomenal handicapping magic) produced such good results, that I decided to release them for Week Five.

Keep in mind, there's never a fee for these picks. They will always be fresh, free and hopefully very, very, accurate.

There are two types of plays: Dogs and Faves

Here are Big Daddy's Double Diamond Dogs for Week 5

Note: Odds obtained from scoresandodds and current as of timestamp of my posts

CAR + 3
SEA + 6
SF +3

Now comes Big Daddy's Double Diamond FAVORITES for Week 5

JAX - 2
DEN - 1

NOTE: Wait a day to see if you can get even better odds on Denver as a result of Travis Henry situation.

Remember, these picks are derived used high level mathematics and probability paradigms that most of you are not smart enough to understand. They are not conceived in  the crucible of masturbatory shame fueled by an unholy mix of internet porn and too much Jack Daniels as are most of the other picks posted here.

These WILL win.

You can put them in parlays, round robins, whatever.

Big Daddy

Ps I'm testing one other hypothesis for the day games. If it pans out, I should have a Sunday Night Pick (Bears vs Packers) prior to kickoff.

Update:

Get Jax minus only ONE at pinnacle
also there:

SF Plus 3 1/2

"I have a sneaking suspicion your undefeated reign will come to a crashing halt this weekend." - The MIDGET

Dear The Midget,

At least have the decency to wait until after I win ALL MY GAMES before hating Big Daddy. That's what the douchebags do in all the other forums.

And you appear to be at least as big a douchebag as them.

Big Daddy

LOL...I like all your picks except SEA...i'm going with PIT -6

GL

"LOL...I like all your picks except SEA.."

Thank you Roboracer for your kind words.

I wish you GL on all your picks too.

Big Daddy

Good Luck with your picks.

"Good Luck with your picks."

Thanks a lot, man!

Big Daddy

Ok, You can now get

DEN +1         this, along with
SF + 3 1/2
Jax -1
CAR + 3
SEA + 6

are the plays..

Feel the same way on your analysis on the Pitt game

I needed to come in here to check it out. One of my friends thought it was me.

But now I see that it can't be me. I've lost more games on Saturday than you ever did in 4 years.

Good Luck on your plays I would call you Big Daddy but that would be just too weird for me.

"Good Luck on your plays"

Well...from one Big Daddy to Another...

Thanks, man!

Big Daddy

Ps I have a spectacular record over the years and just had another winner today with the Cubs game which you can see if you click on my name and see the thread I started in the Baseball Forum.

But these have largely been TRADING plays. That is, I watch the game and then make a decision based on what's transpired.

The Big Daddy Double Diamond Plays are a whole new animal, so I recommend everyone having a 'Wait & See' attitude.

What I've done is extrapolate the statistical analysis of some of the best mathematical minds in the country and integrated with my own handicapping skills. That's why there are so few picks. 'The Black Box' spits out a percentage probability for every game.

But, then I go throught and decide based on a number of non-mathematical more analog criteria which picks are the best. So it's subjective and it's new for me to just make picks before the game starts and be stuck with them.

As I said, I'm a trader.

But, we'll see how this works out.

Take care,

Big Daddy

I Am Big Daddy is not picking Seattle to beat Pittsburg but to cover

Keep in mind, when I say I subjectively blend my time-tested handicapping skills with the high-level mathematical analysis that the  'black box' produces,  I'm not saying that, for example if the black box spits out Dallas as a 88% favorite, that I'll say "I don't care what the math says for this game, I'm going with the Bills!"

No, I respect the numbers.

That's rule number one.

Where the handicapping comes in is deciding which of the games that are projected as easy winners actually are.

Old time gamblers have bemoaned the fact that, as Las Vegas lines have got sharper and coaches have gotten more sophisticated, that  it's harder and hader to beat the spread.

But, in actuality, if you know what you're doing, the OPPOSITE is true.

You just have to level the field by using math yourself.

Just be better at it...

As far as the Big Daddy Double Diamond Plays go -

It's time that will tell who's better...

Big Daddy

Right now, all currently playing picks look good -
Jax -1
CAR + 3
SEA + 6

But hold on, things can change quickly  in the N...F....L....
Whoooooo!!!!

Big Daddy

No surprise:  Things have changed. 

But just a little...let's see what happens in the 2nd half...

Big Daddy

to much hype  here washington was and is the play of the day kitna sucks

Uh oh...